by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 8 - 5 - 2 - 3
RACE 1: BEAR CLAUSE (#3)
The opener at Aqueduct on Friday is a particularly treacherous affair for handicappers given the volatile histories of the favorites. Leading the charge of unreliable short prices is Final Chapter, who has been steadily descending the class ladder since returning from an extended layoff earlier this winter. He’s clearly capable of earning speed figures that could win this race, and he’s benefited from drops in class in the past. However, his most recent effort was particularly alarming since it came over a sloppy surface that is similar to the one he’s likely to encounter on Friday. Fellow short price No Hiding Place enters off a more encouraging performance, finishing second in the mud two weeks ago. However, that came against a very weak group, and he’s struggled to maintain his form in general. I think you want to consider some competitors who offer greater value, so my top selection is Bear Clause. I know this gelding’s recent form looks as inconsistent as that of anyone else in this field, but I think you just have to ignore his two races for the Dave Cannizzo barn. For whatever reason, he was not able to produce results once claimed away from Emron Ibrahim at the end of last year. Now back in his former trainer’s barn, it’s reasonable to expect that he can get back to his better efforts. His race on Feb. 17, just eight days after his prior run for Cannizzo, marked significant improvement. While he was beaten six lengths that day, he was facing a tougher field than the one he meets here, as both Power Nap and Pegasus Red would be significant favorites in this spot. He’s my top selection, but I also want to include Awesome Heart at a slightly better price. I know that his connections have had little success at this meet, but I think this horse is really going to appreciate the turnback in distance. All seven of his career wins have come in dirt sprints. Furthermore, he actually didn’t run that badly when pitted against New York-bred allowance company back in December. At a big price, he’s one to throw into the exotics.
Win: 3
Exacta: 1,3 with 1,2,3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4,6,7 with 1
RACE 3: FOREST BLUE (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which figures to give Rockford an advantage. This horse is going to appreciate the turnback to a sprint distance, and he’s run well over wet tracks in the past. He defeated today’s rival Helooksthepart when afforded a similar pace advantage two back, and now he’s reunited with expert front-running rider Paco Lopez. He’s the horse to beat, but he figures to face another stern challenge from Helooksthepart. This gelding has overcome unfavorable pace setups in the past, and now he’s been claimed by Antonio Arriaga, who has shown the ability to improve horses. Furthermore, he did not get a clear run when beaten by Rockford last time and should benefit from the rider switch to Dylan Davis. Both of these runners must be used, but my top pick is Forest Blue. This horse is now getting a needed drop in class after facing tougher foes at the N1X allowance level in three straight starts. He was badly overmatched when finishing behind talented horses like Westwood, Wonderful Light, and Flash Trading in recent starts. Furthermore, he was likely hindered by a two- to three-wide trip last time over a track that was favoring inside paths. Over the past five years, Robertino Diodoro is 34 for 113 (30 percent, $2.91 ROI) with horses dropping from allowance to claiming races in dirt sprints.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 4: FLAT CALM (#4)
Dancingwthdaffodls appears to be the most reliable runner following her solid performance going today’s distance last time out. That came against $50,000 maiden claimers, but it’s not as if this maiden special weight affair represents a major rise in class given the mediocre quality of the field. She handled the stretch-out well considering that she was racing 2-wide on a day when you probably wanted to be on the rail. I prefer her to the other runner with experience likely to take money. Linda Rice, who had trained Dancingwthdaffodls prior to the claim by Bruce Brown, sends out two runners in this race, and both figure to take money. Breezy Gal should attract support based solely on Linda Rice’s excellent statistics with second-time-starting maidens. On the other hand, she really didn’t do much running in her debut, in which she took no money at all, going off at over 18-1. I actually prefer Linda’s firster Flat Calm. This one attracts her go-to winter rider Junior Alvarado, is clearly bred to excel going longer distances. She’s by route sire Flatter and out of a female family full of stamina influences, tracing back to the great Canadian mare Dance Smartly. While Linda Rice is known for her success second time out, she actually does very well with firsters in this situation. Over the past five years, she is 4 for 12 (33 percent, $2.32 ROI) with first-time-starters in dirt routes at Aqueduct, and 9 of those finished in the money.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,5
RACE 7: JEWEL CAN DISCO (#5)
Mission Command is one of a few runners likely to attract significant support in Friday’s feature. He broke through his N1X allowance condition in solid fashion, soundly defeating next-out winner Benevolence while earning a speed figure that should make him competitive against this tougher field. On the other hand, he’s now been off for nearly three months since that victory. Over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is just 2 for 27 (7 percent, $0.33 ROI) with last-out winners coming off layoffs of 60 to 120 days in dirt sprints. At a relatively short price, I think he’s one to bet against. I strongly prefer the other horse who figures to vie for favoritism in this race. Jewel Can Disco ran quite well considering the circumstances last time. The early pace of that race was on the quick side, and Jewel Can Disco had to work hard to secure a clear lead in the early stages. The pace came apart late as closers were running on at the end, and a tiring Jewel Can Disco probably was not aided by the tactics of his rider, who was steering him left and right through the stretch in an effort to keep the lead. This horse is naturally fast out of the gate, so I have no doubt that Dylan Davis will be just as effective in hustling him to the front. Six furlongs is the perfect distance for this horse, and he’s already proven that he’s capable of holding off the late surges of horses like Heavy Meddle and Giantinthemoonlite. While I generally don’t endorse favorites in competitive races, I just think this one is a little better than his rivals.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,7,8