by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 4 - 7 - 3
RACE 4: IT’S A SHAW THING (#1)
Some horseplayers may default to first-time starters given the muddled form of those with experience in this maiden-claiming field. While I understand the approach, I’m not enamored with the firsters going out for Linda Rice or Rudy Rodriguez. Rice’s firster is the last foal out of a very old dam, while Rodriguez’s is debuting for less than half of her auction purchase price with a second-tier rider named. The debut runner I would use is the Michelle Nevin-trained Miss You Blues, yet I’m more interested in those with prior form. I prefer a couple of fillies moving up from the $30,000 claiming level, a negligible class transition in the maiden ranks. My top pick is It’s a Shaw Thing, who has run deceptively well in both of her starts since returning from a layoff this winter. She stayed on admirably after chasing a speedball when never able to make the lead in her Feb. 15 return. Then last time, her performance was much stronger than the result suggests, as she broke poorly and had to rush up through traffic to make the lead in the first quarter-mile. The majority of cheaper fillies would back up after such a taxing opening gambit, but she fought on bravely in the lane to secure second. A repeat of that effort makes her a win candidate. At a much bigger price, I also want to use Bizness Beauty. She lacks the early speed of my top selection, but she’s better than her recent form indicates after stumbling badly at the start in her most recent outing.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4,8 with 7
RACE 6: ANNETTE’S HUMOR (#5)
Linda Rice has a strong hand to play in this New York-bred maiden claimer. She sends out the likely favorite Delta Gamma, who disappointed at a short price when finishing a distant second at this level in her most recent start. She’s earned the fastest speed figures and has handled wet tracks, but I’m somewhat concerned that she’s heading in the wrong direction after a promising start to her career. In my opinion, she’s no more appealing than Too Many Tales, who should be a slightly better price. This filly put in a commendable effort in a weak maiden special weight race last week and is back at the right class level here. I’m using both of them, but my top pick is Annette’s Humor. As I mentioned above, I’m not concerned about the transition from the $30,000 to $50,000 claiming level, especially since this filly’s top TimeformUS Speed Figures indicate she is just as fast as the two aforementioned rivals. Her last race was her worst effort since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, but she had a legitimate excuse. Feb. 9 was a day that strongly favored horses that rode the rail, and Annette’s Humor chased 3 to 4 wide throughout. She’s clearly better than that result, and she does not figure to mind some moisture in the surface given her prior form on wet tracks. There is no clear front-runner in this field, so she could lead them from start to finish.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 8: PALLADIAN BRIDGE (#5)
Bluegrass Jamboree figures to attract support following her visually impressive 8-length victory last time out, yet I’m skeptical that she can repeat that performance. The early pace of that race was quite slow – indicated by blue color-coded TimeformUS pace figures at every call – and Bluegrass Jamboree rode a golden rail for the first half-mile before angling into the clear. Her prior form still makes her a serious player here, but she’s likely to be an underlay. I prefer her two main rivals, D J’s Favorite and Pauseforthecause. D J’s Favorite was incredibly gutsy in her Feb. 24 victory, as she refused to yield after getting passed in deep stretch. She obviously handles a wet track, and the turnback to 6 furlongs should not be a hindrance. Pauseforthecause has kept better company in her last two starts, and actually ran fairly well in those races despite losing at short prices. That was especially true last time when she chased 2 to 3 wide throughout against a strong rail bias. I’ll use both of these fillies prominently, but I prefer another rival at a much more enticing price. Palladian Bridge may be hard for some to endorse off her recent form, but I think we can make excuses for some of those efforts. Following her win over Bluegrass Jamboree last fall, she actually ran well to be third on Nov. 29, chasing home two subsequent stakes winners. However, trainer Ray Handal then made a rider switch to jockey Sheldon Russell for her next two races, and I was not a fan of the rides she received on either occasion. Russell made no use of her speed, riding her like a closer rather than the leader/stalker that she actually is. She did spend some time on the golden rail last time, but she angled outside for the last half of the race and was closing down the center of the track late. This mare has bounced back from poor efforts in the past, and I’m pleased to see Manny Franco back aboard, since he seems to have the best rapport with her.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 5 with 4,8 with 1,2,4,7,8
RACE 9: CASH OFFER (#8)
There is no denying that Behind the Couch is the most likely winner of the finale. This Jeremiah Englehart-trained filly put in an excellent debut effort, overcoming a slow start and a wide trip to just miss by a half-length. The winner of that heat, Kid Is Frosty, had already proven herself against tougher company in her prior start, and the race earned a respectable speed figure. Englehart has excellent numbers with his second time starters and this filly will be difficult to beat if she improves at all out of her debut. I certainly prefer her to the other fillies exiting that same Feb. 23 race. Third place finisher Harley Q has had multiple chances and seems to have reached her ceiling, and fourth place Lady Macho had a better trip than Behind the Couch while saving ground on the far turn. The only rival who appears to have a reasonable chance at defeating Behind the Couch is new face Cash Offer. This filly made her one and only start against open company in California last year when conditioned by Doug O’Neill. Although she lost by a wide margin, she actually showed some potential in that unveiling. After breaking a step slowly, she rushed up to participate in a speed duel with the eventual winner through some quick opening splits. Eventual Grade 1 winner Bellafina rallied for second and the subsequent exploits of she and others have validated that race’s high speed figure. Cash Offer abruptly came up empty at the top of the stretch and tired so badly that one can assume something went awry. She was given plenty of time to recover from that effort, and now she returns in the barn of Mark Hennig and is dropping in class to face New York-breds. There are no other obvious front-runners in this field, so she may be able to capitalize on the lack of pace.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 2,3,7,9