by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 1A - 3 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 12 - 9
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 6 - 5
RACE 6: TAKE CHARGE AUBREY (#4)
Of those with experience, the runner with the best credentials appears to be Cartwheel. After two decent performances last summer as a 2-year-old, she returned in early February with her best effort yet. The 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned is clearly best among this field. However, I prefer Sunshine Gal, part of the coupled entry. She ran a deceptively strong race in her debut, rallying through traffic after breaking a bit slowly. She disappointed last time out, but she clearly didn’t handle the sloppy surface that day. This filly is interesting while getting back on a fast track. That said, I want a first-time starter in this spot. The one likely to attract the most support is Todd Pletcher’s Camorra, who breaks from the outside post in this 13-runner field. She ships up from his Florida base and appears to have some speed, but I prefer another who figures to go off at a higher price. Take Charge Aubrey makes her debut for Bruce Levine, who is certainly capable of winning with a firster. Despite the fact that this filly only sold for $20,000 last May, she actually put in a solid workout at that sale, drilling a furlong in a relatively quick 10 1/5 seconds. She’s bred to have some speed since she’s a half to New York-bred sprint winner Rock Doc and is out of a dam who was a Grade 1-winning sprinter. She appears to be working more forwardly than Levine’s other starter in here. Notably, her most recent morning drill on March 17 matches the older sprinter Cerro.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,9,12
RACE 7: BEAUTIFUL BUZZ (#5)
Letmetakethiscall may go favored off her relatively fast debut score on Feb. 16. She is indeed the horse to beat based on that performance, but I wonder if she’ll be able to repeat it over a drier surface. Many horses failed to handle that sloppy track, so her victory may have been as much a product of others failing to show up as it was her getting over the surface well. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and she figures to be among those contesting the pace. One runner who should get a favorable setup is My Roxy Girl. While she is the logical closer in a race filled with speed, she’s gotten fast paces to close into on other occasions and has struggled to seal the deal. I think she’ll run well, but I prefer others. My top selection is Beautiful Buzz, who I think will run better than she did last time. That day, she was not aggressively ridden to make the lead and ended up getting a three-wide trip on a day when you wanted to stay near the rail. All things considered, she did well to keep running on through the lane, nearly coming back for third in the late stages. I like the rider switch to Dylan Davis, who figures to rate her just off a fast pace. She should get the jump on a horse like My Roxy Girl and hang on for the win at a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7
RACE 8: NOBODY MOVE (#1)
There should be at least a modicum of value to exploit in this race because I don’t like Midnight Mission, the probable third choice in the wagering. This horse may appeal to those that are vulnerable to the allure of an undefeated runner, despite the fact that he’s run significantly slower than the main contenders. The two horses that merit the most respect are Uncle Sigh and Can You Diggit, fourth and second, respectively, behind a longshot winner in the Haynesfield last time out. I don’t have a strong preference between the two, as rides and trips may determine which one comes out on top this time. I’m more interested in the one other horse that could work his way into the mix. Nobody Move was soundly defeated by Uncle Sigh last time, but he was claimed out of that effort by Rudy Rodriguez and Michael Dubb. This seems like a perfect candidate for these connections to improve, as he has previously run faster races for his prior connections. Furthermore, Rudy Rodriguez is especially dangerous first off the claim with horses running back in dirt routes. Over the past five years, he is 40 for 101 (40 percent, $2.66 ROI) in that situation.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7