PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 3:   11 - 9 - 6 - 8
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 10 - 3 - 12
Race 6:   4 - 9 - 1A - 2
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 9 - 6 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Rob Atras starts two horses first off the claim in this opener, and I’m somewhat against both of them. Gagetown (#2)seems like the stronger of his two runners, but this drop in class off the claim has to be cause for some concern. He had been competitive at the $62,500 optional claiming level just three starts ago, and now he’s dropping in for $40k first off the claim away from Lynn Cash. That can be a difficult barn to claim from, and I’m concerned that he won’t hold his form. If I’m taking a horse making that drop, I would rather go for American Gentleman (#4), who figures to be a better price. His recent form has tailed off, but he was simply in over his head at the N2X allowance level. He’s dropping down to the right level and will be dangerous if he can regain some of his tactical speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this is a race that could favor front-runners, which could work against a horse like Thinkaboutit (#3), who is also a short price on the line. I prefer the projected early leader, Secret Rules (#1). This horse certainly has some questions to answer as well, but it wasn’t that long ago he was running well enough to beat a field like this. I didn’t like the ride he got two back when he was conservatively ridden away from the gate and forced to rate. His most recent outing at Parx was poor, but he’s had some time off since then and may be set for better off the layoff. It’s not as if he’s taking some negative drop in class, especially considering that he was claimed for $25k by these connections. I like the rider switch to Jaime Torres and expect a better effort.

Fair Value:
#1 SECRET RULES, at 9-2 or greater
#4 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 2

Most handicappers will default to one of the two Todd Pletcher dropdowns in this $40k maiden claimer. They both figure to be short prices despite having some significant questions to answer. I’m a little more skeptical of Long Term (#4), who has the superior dirt races going back to last season. However, it took a long time to get him back to the races following his poor showing in the Wood Memorial, and he was abysmal in his lone appearance this year on turf. It was odd to see him show up on turf, and it’s worth noting he didn’t appear to work very well on the main track in one drill I saw from January. I have some serious issues trusting him, and feel a little more comfortable with Pioneering Spirit (#8). He’s another who might have seen better days, but at least he’s been a bit less of a disappointment. It didn’t seem like he was ever that highly regarded by the Pletcher barn, and now they’re just cutting ties as the barn does some spring cleaning around the stable. This runner figures to get claimed here, and might be good enough to win before he leaves the barn. Yet both of these horses are going to be short prices, so I wanted to find someone else who had some upside. The only such horse that I can make a case for is Cloud Music (#6). His debut at the maiden special weight level really wasn’t that bad. He contested an honest pace and just got tired while facing a significantly better field. He got bumped at the start last time, so was unable to make the lead dropping down to this level. Yet I thought he stayed on well at the end of that race, which bodes well for him stretching out. Distance isn’t supposed to be a problem for this son of Cloud Computing, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#6 CLOUD MUSIC, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 3

I don’t have a high level of confidence in this New York-bred maiden claiming event, but I do want to highlight one horse that could outrun her odds. Dream Road (#11) made her only prior start at the maiden special weight level last November, and didn’t run as poorly as it might seem. She was off a bit slowly and traveled keenly into the race down the backstretch. She briefly contested the lead and then backed up on the turn. That was going a mile, and she figures to appreciate both the drop in class and turnback in distance. She adds Lasix and blinkers for her second start and might get somewhat overlooked for low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#11 DREAM ROAD, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 4

Aymmetric (#1) can obviously beat this field if he moves forward at all on his maiden victory. However, we’ve only seen once since October of 2021 – 17 months ago – and that most recent start came last summer, followed by another substantial layoff. He goes out for one of the best layoff barns in the business, but I still have some questions, especially as he draws the rail for his return. His main rival based on speed figures is Agility (#3), but I thought this horse had every chance to win last time and just couldn’t get the job done. He can be a little inconsistent and some horses haven’t run back to that last speed figure. I prefer a couple of bigger prices. My top pick is Thrill of It (#5). It might appear that this horse really improved with added distance last year, but I actually don’t mind this turnback for him. He benefited from circumstances when he broke his maiden going a mile last year, able to set a slow pace. He subsequently got an awkward trip in May before failing to handle the slop in a two-turn event at Saratoga. John Terranova is an outstanding 11 for 31 (35%, $3.16 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. There isn’t that much speed signed on here, and I think he can be forwardly placed under Jaime Torres. The other runner I want to use may be done no favors by a lack of pace. Yet I still think Amedeus Music (#6) has been heading in the right direction this winter. I was pretty impressed with this performance two back when he was a commanding winner in the fog over today’s rival Braciole, who has since flattered that form. Then last time, Amedeus Music was unable to reel in the superior Good Skate, but he nevertheless chased that foe gamely. I like that he’s moving up in class as he returns from a brief freshening, and Jackie Davis seems like a good fit for his style.

Fair Value:
#5 THRILL OF IT, at 6-1 or greater
#6 AMEDEUS MUSIC, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 5

This $16k claiming event is one of the most competitive races on the card, as it has attracted 12 runners and lacks a standout favorite. The public figures to send some wagering support towards the widest drawn runner, especially after the scratch of her main rival Blue Paynt. Ruvies in Time (#12) goes out for a hot barn, that of Rob Atras, for whom she makes her second start off the claim. Ruvies in Time is a classier mare, but she ran poorly in her first start for the new barn last time and has to rebound. She’s not proven going this one-mile distance, so that might give an edge to Blue Paynt, who has had plenty of prior success routing. Yet there are many other runners to consider at more enticing prices. Some of the speed has scratched out of this race, but the TimeformUS Pace Projector is still predicting a fast pace after scratches. How Lucky (#3) owns the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in the field, indicated by the "LP” flag on the Pace Projector. She did win going this distance at Aqueduct last winter, but her recent form since coming off a layoff at Laurel leaves a little to be desired. She has a right to do better with those starts under her belt, but I would demand a generous price. Keen Dancer (#10) comes in with form that may look inconsistent at first glance. Yet she’s been placed at a variety of class levels in her recent starts and generally runs well when she’s appropriately spotted against cheaper claimers. She’s another who would appreciate plenty of pace up front, and the price should be fair. My top pick is Its Cold in Dehere (#5). This mare has plenty of back class, having defeated much tougher optional claiming foes last winter. She went off form last season and hasn’t looked quite the same since returning from a layoff. Yet I think she’s shown some subtle signs of improvement in her last couple of starts. She has finished with good interest in each of her last two starts against tougher in races that were dominated by front-runners. Now she makes her first start off the claim for Mertkan Kantmarmaci, who is 37 for 172 (22%, $2.09 ROI) with that move on dirt over the past 5 years. She also gets a significant rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy, who should suit her running style.

Fair Value:
#5 ITS COLD IN DEHERE, at 9-2 or greater
#10 KEEN DANCER, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

Fromanothamutha (#10) didn’t run well in his lone prior attempt at this level, but he was part of a competitive pace that day. Some pace scratching out helps him, but I was more intrigued by others. Callaloo (#1A) didn’t get a particularly good ride last time, when he stayed inside and was steered into traffic late in a race that was falling apart. The problem is that the same rider is back aboard here, though perhaps he can be a bit more forwardly placed stretching out in distance. I consider him a contender, but not necessarily value. Mandatory (#9) makes some sense, and the presence of low-percentage rider Romero Maragh could increase the price. This horse has earned some of the best TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, and comes off a solid effort in which he narrowly lost to today’s rival Colloquy despite contesting an honest pace. He’s drawn well towards the outside and seems to fit at this level. My top pick is Smoke and Heat (#4). I just think he’s a horse that could get a little lost in the wagering here off his poor result at this level last time. Yet watching that replay, he really didn’t run that badly, as he was never inside on a day you wanted to ride the rail and altered course when trying to rally in the stretch. He’s shown some potential on occasion, and he’s switching to Trevor McCarthy, whose style should fit him well. There is still some speed left in this race after scratches, and this horse has the best Late Pace Rating of anyone in this field.

Fair Value:
#4 SMOKE AND HEAT, at 5-1 or greater
#9 MANDATORY, at 4-1 or greater