PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 9 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: RUNABOUT (#3)

#6 Crypto Cash is the horse to beat in this $16k claimer even as his connections dump him in for this price tag after he just missed by a nose for $32k last time out. He was only claimed for $16k back in January, so perhaps this is just a realistic assessment. My issue with him is that I haven’t been thrilled with either of his performances for the Atras barn. He was somewhat disappointing when bet down to favoritism two back. And last time he worked out a great trip to lead at midstretch before getting nosed out at the wire. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on in this six-horse field to set up his late run, so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price. The problem is that his main rival #1 Chris and Dave is hardly a reliable alternative. After getting claimed for $50k by Linda Rice in October, he’s struggled to finish his two races for this barn. He was admittedly overmatched in one of those when put in for an $80k tag in November. However, now his claiming tag is getting slashed in half for the second time in a row. He was eased for $40k last time and now Linda is just begging someone to take him of her hands. He should play out as the controlling speed here, but he’s hard to take at what could be a relatively short price. I prefer #3 Runabout, who is moving up in class. This gelding is easily the most trustworthy runner in this race. He doesn’t always win, but he usually shows up with a respectable effort. He showed no ill effect from a 6-month layoff when he returned earlier this year, and I like the confidence being displayed as he’s bumped up in class off the claim. Trainer Jeffrey Englehart is 5 for 10 (50%, $2.86 ROI) first off the claim at Aqueduct at this current meet. This horse also has the tactical speed to work out a stalking trip in a paceless race.

WIN: #3 Runabout, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: SOLIB (#5)

If you want the speed in a race without much pace, #2 Towering Orbit is the one for you. She possesses plenty of early zip, but she’s had trouble finishing off her races at this level. This filly picked up some minor awards over the winter, but is coming off one of her poorer efforts when fading to fourth last time. She did get involved in a quick pace that fell apart that day, and is unlikely to face as much early pressure here. She goes out for a barn that has had a strong meet, and is arguably the horse to beat given the pace scenario. I just can’t take another short price on her. #4 Captivating Caraearned a speed figure that makes her competitive here when second at this level two back. She didn’t quite replicate that when she came back just 7 days ago, but she was meeting a tougher field. All three of the horses who beat her in that spot would probably be favorites in this race. She now gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis and has the tactical speed to sit right off Towering Orbit early. The only issue is that she'll be a fraction of the price she was in her last two starts. I want to get a little more creative for my top pick. #5 Solib, the lone 3-year-old in this field, improved with each start last year as a juvenile. The switch to turf may have had something to do with it, but it would seem that she’s just matured in the overall sense. She was a little green and very wide in her lone dirt start, a race run after a heavy Saratoga downpour. That performance may not be a true indication of her dirt ability. It’s not as if she’s bred to only handle turf, as her dam was actually best on the dirt. She may want to go longer than this, and some might say it’s just a prep for a turf race. Yet she has upside in a race where we’ve already seen what many others have to offer, and she may possess the speed to be forwardly placed.

WIN: #5 Solib, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,4

RACE 7: MY ROXY GIRL (#3)

I have no major knocks against the likely favorite #8 Impazible Donna, who is the logical horse to beat. She seemed to take a step forward with blinkers added last time. She was more engaged in the middle portion of the race, ranging up outside of the leaders and taking over before Betsy Blue ran by her in deep stretch. The only problem with taking her off that effort is that she was 12-1 last time you have to accept a fraction of that price here as her good form is totally exposed. It’s not as if her best efforts give her a massive advantage over the other logical contenders, but she does seem primed for another strong performance. I prefer her to the other horses exiting that same race. #4 Secret Love has a right to improve second off the layoff, but she was dull last time and may just not have stepped forward since her 3-year-old season. #1 Beautiful Karen is always dangerous as the controlling speed, but she rarely wins race and has a tendency to cough up leads in deep stretch. I want to go in a different direction with #3 My Roxy Girl, who drops in class from the open N1X level. She actually ran well for that condition two back when getting a wide trip on Jan. 20, a day that seemed to favor rail runners. She didn’t fare as well last time, but that race was dominated by the improved Kept Waiting, as all of the horses chasing outside seemed to be spinning their wheels. I think she’s better than that, and she would be awfully formidable here if she could run back to any of her prior efforts from earlier in the winter. She was probably best on Jan. 8 when getting a rough trip, and this is her first start against NY-breds since then.

WIN: #3 My Roxy Girl, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,8