by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 3 - 1A - 2 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 8 - 5
RACE 2: FAIR REGIS (#5)
Following the scratch of morning line favorite Shimmering Moon, Leah’s Dream is likely to be the clear public choice on the basis of her runner-up finish at this same class level last time. Shimmering Moon edged out her rival for the victory that day under a perfect ground-saving ride from Jose Lezcano, but Leah’s Dream did not surrender without a fight. Just like last time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-running Leah’s Dream. If she gets loose on the lead and slows down the pace, she figures to be difficult to catch. My top pick is the likely second choice Fair Regis. She has a similar profile to that of Shimmering Moon before that mare won the March 8 race at this level. Both exit a Feb. 9 affair in which they were badly compromised by wide trips over a track that featured a strong rail bias. Shimmering Moon rebounded to her typical strong efforts when she got to race over a fair racetrack last time, and I would expect Fair Regis to show the same improvement this time. Fair Regis displayed good form prior to her disappointing February effort, and actually finished ahead of Shimmering Moon when they met in early December. I like the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who figures to have this versatile mare placed relatively close to the pace. If she shows up, I believe she has an excellent chance to win, and she projects to offer far better value than the favorite. Aside from favored Leah’s Dream, the only other horse I would consider elevating to an exacta position underneath my top choice is Starlite Mission. She was earning speed figures that would make her competitive against this field as recently as December, and she may be able to return to form off the claim by Dave Cannizzo.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with ALL
RACE 4: SALTY SMILE (#3)
Two Hot Betty is obviously the horse to beat off her runner-up finish at this level last time. She has run well in both starts since returning from a lengthy layoff for Jeremiah Englehart, and is capable of beating this field if she merely maintains her current form. The only major concern for her is the possibility of a slow pace, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. Speed Khaleesi is the likely front-runner, but her form is vastly inferior. Malarkey may be the most dangerous challenger, since she possesses the tactical speed to stay close to the pace and has earned speed figures that make her competitive. Her first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin was poor, but she was facing significantly tougher company that day. The drop in class may wake her up, but she is difficult to trust completely. While I'm not necessarily against Two Hot Betty, I want to take a shot with Salty Smile at a more enticing price. This filly's recent form looks fairly disappointing, but she’s actually run better than it seems in a few of those races. She never had a fair chance on Feb. 7 after breaking slowly and racing wide against a rail bias. She actually ran fairly well tow back on Mar. 2, as she finished just 2 lengths behind Two Hot Betty despite getting shuffled back on the turn in a race dominated up front. She was no match for Sweet August Lady last time, but she did not appreciate the stretch-out and was against hindered by hopping at the start. I believe Salty Smile has steadily been rounding back into form and the turnback will help. She could be a serious threat to the favorite as long as she breaks cleanly.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7,8
RACE 7: GYPSUM JOHNNY (#3)
At first glance, this race appears to be a match-up between Analyze the Odds and Papa Shot. However, I have some reservations about both of these likely favorites. Analyze the Odds makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice following a dull effort in a New York-bred optional-claiming race for Jason Servis. This colt won the Mike Lee last year in his first start off the claim for the Servis barn, but failed to recapture that form thereafter. In my opinion, it’s not a good sign that he was on a downward trend prior to Rice’s claim, and the fact that she is now dropping him in class is another negative indicator. Papa Shot’s recent form seems slightly more trustworthy, especially once they added a full-cup extension blinker to his equipment on Jan. 4. The major question for him is the turnback in distance, since he’s typically been best going route distances. I’m using both of these horses, but I want other options. My top pick is Gypsum Johnny. If you’re looking for a more reliable alternative to the two favorites, this gelding is not it. However, he is going to be an enticing price in this race and I believe he’s dropping down to an appropriate class level. While he’s been defeated by double-digit margins in five consecutive races, a few of those efforts are not nearly as poor as they seem. He ran a decent race against classy open company foes back in November, and he rallied well to be third behind the vastly improved Bavaro two back. He was claimed out of that race by Jeremiah Englehart, who got a little too ambitious in his first start off the claim. Gypsum Johnny never had a chance against tougher allowance foes that day, but this race is significantly softer and 7 furlongs is an appropriate distance for him. He’s certainly not a horse to single in the Pick 6, but he could add some value in an otherwise straightforward betting race.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,7
RACE 8: ORBILICIOUS (#2)
Debut winners Don’t Rush and Avalina should attract the bulk of the play when they meet for their second starts in this starter allowance race. Don’t Rush won going today’s distance over a fast track, whereas Avalina won sprinting in the slop. Therefore, some may regard Don’t Rush as the more reliable option. While the speed figures that she earned – both TimeformUS and Beyer – make her the horse to beat, I’m somewhat skeptical if she will repeat them. The figures assigned to the horses that finished behind her are unreasonably high compared to their prior form, and her main rival in that race, the 3-2 favorite, was eased soon after the start. Despite having more questions to answer, I prefer Avalina. The second- and thirdplace finishers in her debut both returned to run well in their following starts, and Mom I Forgive You won next time out. Avalina is bred to handle more ground and gave the impression that a mile wouldn’t be a problem as she drew away in the lane last time. While I prefer her of the two favorites, I think this race is more wide-open than it appears at first glance. My top pick is Orbilicious, who should get somewhat ignored in the wagering off a set of inferior numbers. While she was no match for the top two finishers going this distance last time, I thought she put in a deceptively strong effort that day. Orbilicious was badly hampered at the start when she was squeezed between rivals, losing a good 3 lengths of position. All things considered, she closed well to be third, and gave every indication that she had improved going a route of ground. I like her progression through her first three starts and I believe she can take another step forward here with a clean trip.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 9: EVERYTHING PAZIBLE (#3)
Class dropper Jack Bo is likely to go off as a strong favorite in this finale, but he’s not quite as formidable as he seems once you dig into his form. Both starts to date have come over sloppy tracks, so his ability over fast going is still unknown. While he may possess the speed to make the lead early, I have very little confidence that he will be at his best going this one-mile distance. His siblings have primarily been sprinters, and he has not displayed much finishing power in either effort going shorter. Some will be enticed by the Brad Cox claim, but he does not have strong numbers making this move with maidens on dirt. I’ll use him defensively, but I think there are plenty of viable alternatives. Awesome Adversary and Tazmonian Devil both ran well in a Mar. 8 race that came up relatively fast for this level, and either one is a logical win candidate. I’ll use them, but my top pick is Everything Pazible. His speed figures are significantly slower than those of the aforementioned contenders, but I think he’s liable to take a step forward this time. This horse has been extremely sluggish in his races, often dropping as many as 15 lengths off the lead before attempting to mount a late rally. He is always charging with good energy in the stretch, but he often leaves himself with too much ground to make up. Therefore, I’m encouraged by this equipment change, since one would assume that blinkers should have a positive impact on this unfocused colt. Notably, it’s possible that he’s actually been wearing them in his recent workouts. Everything Pazible usually records slow to mediocre workout times in the mornings, but his last three drills are significantly faster than those prior to his other starts. If the blinkers help him show more speed and stay closer to the pace, he’s a dangerous upset candidate.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8