PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 1A - 3 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 9 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 10 - 6 - 7

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: CONNECT THE BROCKS (#2)

The lone 4-year-old in the field, Midnight Express (#1) is facing off against five younger rivals, to whom he is giving away at least 8 pounds each. He is also stepping back up to the $40k maiden claiming level after a couple of tries for the lower price tag. He’s run well in each of his last two starts and has form that makes him a contender here, but he lacks some upside for a horse who could go favored in this kind of race. West Star (#4) is a little more appealing to me among the short prices. He ran deceptively well two back when making a wide rally for second behind runaway winner Mama's Gold on a day when the rail was an advantage. Third-place finisher Camm' Duke returned to win his next start impressively. West Star came back just 8 days later, dropping in for $25k, to again finished second, this time much closer after getting outdueled to the wire. He’s making his first start off the claim for a low-profile barn, but that may just help the price a bit. Wonker Warrior (#5) and Incantation (#6) are also worth considering, but the former did his best running after the wire last time, and the latter hasn’t been competitive in two starts, though both came against far tougher company. I just want to get a little more creative with Connect the Brocks (#2), who will be a better price. This leggy chestnut wanted no part of sprint distances in his first couple of starts. He was just hitting his stride at the end of that Finger Lakes debut and was then never involved against a tougher field in his second start. He got needed class relief last time when dropping to this level and stretching out. He lost some ground after halfway but kept plugging away, and was staying on best of all at the end. That wasn’t the strongest field, but he may have another step forward in him now that he adds Lasix. He has a nice pedigree, and physically has a decent frame to grow into.

WIN: #2 Connect the Brocks, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: CARAMOCHA (#3)

It’s pretty clear that favorites Stone Creator (#6) and Tough Street (#5) are the two most likely winners of this race. However, they both figure to be short prices despite the fact that they possess the same running style, both preferring to control races on the front end. Furthermore, they’re each coming off perfect trip victories against weaker company. Stone Creator had shown ability at the start of her career, but went the wrong way last year, never running to her true potential. She appeared to take a step forward off the layoff last time, but she had a lot working in her favor. Other speed scratched out and she was able to control the pace while racing along an advantageous rail path. Tough Street arguably overcame slightly more adversity last time, as she was off the inside in the early part of her last victory on another day when the rail was good. However, Dylan Davis kept her so far off the inside that it’s as if she was running in a different race than the rest until he guided her down to the rail for the stretch. Both can obviously win, but I don’t think either one will offer value at their expected odds. The obvious alternative is Bustin Bay (#4), but she doesn’t do much for me off her recent form. I’m instead more interesting in Caramocha (#3) at a much bigger price. She looks unappealing at first glance, but I can easily make excuses for some of her recent efforts. She ran poorly over a wet track two back, and she’s never handled moisture in the ground before. Her two other recent races at this level both came in sprints and she’s clearly better going a mile. I like her stretching out, and she seems like one who will benefit if the pace somehow comes apart. Jockey Joey Martinez orchestrated an upset from off the pace last week and his presence aboard this mare will only enhance her price in this short field.

WIN: #3 Caramocha, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 6: LOCKBOX (#7)

This starter optional claimer is one of the more competitive races of the day, as you can build a case for every horse in this field. The one to beat, and likely favorite, is Howzyourcashflow (#3), who will try to prove that her 9-length debut triumph was no fluke. She was risked for a $20k tag that day but ran like a horse that could have won a maiden special weight race. She was entered again and got scratched by the vet just 10 days later, and now she returns in a slightly easier spot. She will beat this field if she builds on her debut, but she isn’t the easiest type to trust. Will Be Famous (#1) finished a distant second to the favorite in that Jan. 12 affair, and came right back to break her maiden a month later, improving her speed figure. She has discovered newfound speedy tactics in her recent races, laying down aggressive fractions on the front end, daring anyone to go with her. Her presence could work against others who want to show speed in this race, including horses like Grace and Charm (#2) and Curlins Choir (#6). It’s also possible that Lockbox (#7) could be negatively affected by so much speed in this field, but at least she’s drawn outside of all those rivals. This filly strikes me as one that can adapt to racing from just off the pace, and Eric Cancel seems likely to try out those tactics here. She’s also just getting needed class relief after facing better fields in all of her recent starts. She was no match for the stakes-quality Downtown Mischief last time in a race where she didn’t get the best ride, tentatively ridden behind a slow early pace. Prior to that she was game to hang on for third in a Dec. 4 race at the same level. Now she’s in a softer spot racing for the $50k tag and she figures to be a square price. Ralph D’Alessandro seems to win a few races here every winter and his horses usually outrun their odds.

WIN: #7 Lockbox, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,3