by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 4 - 6
RACE 2: CODYLICIOUS (#4)
Gio Lucky has twice finished second within a length of the winner at this level and is likely to go favored off the strength of those efforts. He’s come with a reliable late run in each of those two dirt starts, but has yet to run a particularly fast speed figure. He’s one to use, but I’m not interested in betting him as the favorite. I actually prefer another runner out of that March 4 race that he’s exiting. The track profile that day at Aqueduct was difficult to decipher, as many riders avoided the rail. However, I think there’s an argument to be made that you didn’t want to be racing down in the inside path. For that reason, I’m interested in Codylicious, since he spent his entire trip hugging the rail. He was a little green, but actually finished decently through the lane despite rallying inside. With routine improvement in his second start, I think he could outrun his odds racing over a fair surface. I’ll primarily use him with the favorite, as well as the more experienced runners Blinded Vision and C K Dexter Haven.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
RACE 3: CANDY PROMISES (#4)
Conquest Bigluck E is the horse to beat, as he has earned speed figures in each of his last two starts that are superior to what the rest of the runners have accomplished recently. While only his last race came for his current connections, he actually ran quite well that day despite racing against a much tougher field than the one he meets here. He appears to be well spotted and should be tough to beat if he holds his form. I’m only taking a shot against him because I think there’s a horse in this race that is sitting on an improved effort. Candy Promises has run better than it appears in each of his last two starts. Two back, he was off a bit slowly and had to rally from far back over a sloppy track that he may not have liked. That race has proven to be very productive as six horses out of it returned to win their next starts. Then last time, he finished a nose behind today’s rival Alaapatique, but there’s no doubt that Candy Promises ran the better race. Feb. 24 featured a strong rail bias that only intensified as the day wore on. Candy Promises was never inside and was one of only a few horses in the second half of the card that successfully rallied while racing wide. He has strong back races and has subtly been rounding into better form. New trainer David Duggan does a very good job with a small stable of runners, so I don’t mind this barn change.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 6: ZECHA (#6)
Even after the scratch of heavy favorite Lady Moyne, there are still some intriguing fillies in this 5-runner maiden field, which no longer features a horse that is the clear public consensus. The three runners likely to vie for favoritism are Flat Calm, Out of Orbit, and Dancingwthdaffodls. I’m least interested in the Bruce Brown trainee, who has had compiled the most starts and earned her recent runner-up finish against a decidedly weak maiden special weight group. Out of Orbit probably deserves to be the favorite based on her last effort. That Feb. 24 card was one that featured a strong rail bias that only intensified midway through the day as the track condition became wetter. Out of Orbit was one of the few horses during the second half of that day to overcome the bias, making a wide run around the far turn to grab second. This daughter of Malibu Moon has a right to handle the stretch out in distance. Another horse that’s bred to get the distance is Flat Calm, but it remains to be seen how fast she is. Linda Rice has excellent statistics with her second time starting maidens, but this filly did very little running in her debut. She did get a somewhat uncomfortable trip racing in tight quarters down the backstretch, and perhaps the addition of blinkers today will put her on the early lead. I’m using her, but I’m most interested in a different second time starter. Zecha exits the same race as Out of Orbit, in which she also worked out a very wide trip against the track bias. Whereas Out of Orbit did more running overall, I thought Zecha stayed on well at the end of the race, and finished up like a horse that should appreciate more ground. She’s certainly bred to handle route distances on the female side of her pedigree, as her dam possessed stamina and is sister to two runners that relished dirt routes.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
RACE 8: MISSION COMMAND (#1)
Can we trust Tribecca to run back to his surprising third-place finish in the Hollie Hughes? Was it the muddy track that moved him forward that day, or has he simply improved in recent months? I don’t have the answer, but I do know that I don’t want to bet him at a short price after he went off at 59-1 last time. Foreset is his main rival, but I’m not confident that he can turn the tables on the favorite, and he may be forced into a rating position since both Tribecca and Bavaro are faster early. I want a horse that can rally from just off the pace, so I’m trying to beat them with Mission Command. This colt’s last effort was disappointing, but that race really wasn’t conducive to horses attempting to rally from behind. Mission Command got shuffled back early and was left with too much to do. All things considered, I thought he was finishing well at the end. Now he’s making his second start off a layoff and his effort two back was fast enough to give him a chance here, as long as Tribecca returns to his prior form.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6