PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 2 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

Curbstone (#6) is the horse to beat as he takes another shot at this N1X allowance level after settling for second last time. He ran a decent race, but the winner Good Skate just had too much of a tactical advantage. That said, I still don’t completely trust him to run back to his 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, 12-length romp from January, since that was achieved against a much softer field. He’s also going to take money based on the rider switch from Maddy Olver to Manny Franco. I’m interested in a couple of alternatives. Exit Right (#3) ships back to New York for Jamie Ness after easily winning a race on this circuit nearly a year ago. That was a one-turn mile, but this horse has really blossomed into a two-turn specialist who can run all day. He even gutted out a victory going 12 furlongs last summer. He's lost a few of his recent starts, but one of the horses who’s been beating him, Malibu Star, is earning some massive speed figures and looks bound for stakes. I think this 9-furlong distance at Aqueduct is really going to suit Exit Right, and Jamie Ness’s runners have generally performed well at NYRA lately. I would also use Magia Nera (#2) as he stretches back out in distance. He ran well going this distance in just the second start of his career, battling on gamely to finish ahead of today’s rival Montauk Point. His recent results have been a mixed bag, but I thought he showed some signs of improvement last time. The pace of that race was pretty fast, and he never completely threw in the towel after chasing early. Perhaps he’ll get an aggressive ride from Jose Gomez on the stretch-out.

Fair Value:
#3 EXIT RIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
#2 MAGIA NERA, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 4

I don’t have a major problem with likely favorite Ok Honey (#7), other than the fact that she’s pretty obvious. She was a square price last time when she closed for second at a slightly tougher level than this, and now the cat’s out of the bag. It’s clear that the drop in class has helped her regain competitive form that she had lost, and now she figures to be a much shorter price against a softer field. She’s a major player, but it’s not as if he’s ever been a win machine. I see two possible alternatives. The seemingly clever one is Cinderella’s Cause (#2), who had legitimate trouble in her last race. She was bumped and off a step slowly, and then forced to rate in tight quarters along the rail. She got shuffled back after that and wound up last at the quarter pole before passing some tired runners late. She’s naturally more of a front-runner, and she figures to get sent forward this time making her first start off the claim for Rob Falcone. I still have some doubts about her getting this one-mile distance, but I do expect a better effort. My top pick is Girl of Tosconova (#6), who could be the best price of this trio. She’d be among the favorites here if her last race wasn’t showing, as she had maintained solid form for most of 2022. Yet she came off a layoff last time, didn’t take much money, and disappointed. Watching that race, I didn’t think she was ever in the most comfortable position, as she was too keen racing in tight quarters behind horses before backing out. Now she’s dropping slightly in class and she figures to work out a better trip stalking outside of Cinderella’s Cause. I want to give her one chance to rebound.

Fair Value:
#6 GIRL OF TOSCONOVA, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

Paros (#7) is clearly the one to beat as he looks to improve on his recent third-place finish at this level. It feels like he really turned a corner since the trainer switch to Linda Rice. He put in a breakout effort to graduate from the maiden ranks two back, winning off by nearly 14 lengths with a strong speed figure. He subsequently proved that effort was no fluke last time, making a nice rally to the quarter pole before flattening out a bit in the late stages. That was also a much stronger field for the level than this one, so he may have just found the right spot. The only drawback is that the price figures to be very short. His main rival Camm’ Duke (#5) finished just behind him in that same race after getting mildly steadied in the stretch. Yet Camm’ Duke had gotten a great trip up until that point, saving ground along the rail. He’s definitely been heading in the right direction, but I’m not sure he has another step forward in him. Swifty Devil (#1) also exits that race and may have been somewhat compromised by a wide trip against a good rail. However, it does feel like he can be somewhat unreliable. I wanted to get a little more creative with my top pick. Playingwithmatches (#2) didn’t run well when he was last seen in January, as he completely fell apart going a mile despite getting away with a fairly moderate pace. Something may have gone wrong that day, as he was off for some time after that. Yet now he returns with a steady worktab getting Lasix for the first time. Cutting back in distance will suit him, and he actually ran a competitive speed figure in that stallion stakes two back. I just think he has some upside for Mark Hennig, who has gotten off to a strong start this year.

Fair Value:
#2 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

I don’t have a major argument against likely favorite Bella Principessa (#4), who ran pretty well in her return from a layoff last time. This mare had shown good dirt ability when she was competing at Aqueduct in the winter of 2022, picking up a pair of victories against claimers before running competitively at this level. She made a nice move to the quarter pole last time before flattening out and can build on that performance here. The one concern is that she’s doesn’t possess much early speed, and there isn’t exactly a ton of pace in this race. I want to play against some others who could take money, particularly Cadencia (#5). This mare has primarily been a turf runner and feels like one that is taking advantage of this starter allowance condition to get in a prep before turf season returns. I would rather take a runner with recency who is in strong form right now. Captivating Cara (#3) may get dismissed by some handicappers due to the rise in class and perceived negative trainer switch. She did win for the Rob Atras barn last time out, but it’s not as if she really improved for him, actually earning a lower speed figure than she had in her prior start. Yet I did like the grit she displayed in victory last time, fighting back between a couple of rivals that are stronger than those you would typically find at that $25k claiming level. New trainer Greg DiPrima doesn’t have great stats off the claim, but he’s claimed this horse for Double B Racing, who also owns Repo Rocks and had great success with that runner off the claim. I think her tactical speed will play well in this field and the price figures to be fair. The other horse that I could use is Game Theory (#6). This underrated mare can be a little unreliable, but she ran very well at this level last time and is another who could take advantage of a lack of pace in here.

Fair Value:
#3 CAPTIVATING CARA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

Nineteen Oysters (#2) figures to go favored here off his dominant debut victory last month. He didn’t take that much money, going off at 7-1, but he certainly ran like one that was ready to fire first time out. He took advantage of a solid pace, and ran clear to an 8-length victory. His 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure is solid for the level and he’s definitely a contender here if he repeats it. Yet now he’s being asked to stretch out to a mile, and his pedigree, especially on the dam’s side, isn’t the most convincing for the added ground. I prefer a couple of rivals who should offer better value. Victory Money (#6) is more appealing to me off his maiden win, even though the margin wasn’t quite as impressive as the favorite’s. This horse competed in a very tough maiden field on debut last fall, and returned from a brief layoff to stretch out last time. He handled the added distance without issue, setting an honest pace that came apart, staying on strongly at the end. He did ride the rail, which might have been the place to be, but I still liked his progression. I actually view him as a more likely winner, so he’s definitely in my plays. My top pick is Dr. Kraft (#5). This colt showed some grit when he broke his maiden, but didn’t get any respect when he tried the Gander Stakes last time. He actually put in a strong effort to close for third after breaking pretty awkwardly from the rail. He found himself in an unfamiliar position towards the back of the pack. Yet he never gave up and rallied boldly up the rail through the stretch to just miss getting up for second. It shouldn’t be a major surprise that he handled added ground, since he’s bred to go longer on both sides of his pedigree. He is the only horse in this field getting class relief, yet he could still go off at a fair price given the connections.

Fair Value:
#5 DR. KRAFT, at 7-2 or greater