by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
RACE 5: SHIMMERING MOON (#2)
At first glance, Leah’s Dream looks particularly formidable in this spot. However, upon closer inspection, I don’t think the task of beating her is quite as daunting as it may seem. Last time out Leah’s Dream benefitted from a sloppy racetrack that she clearly loves on a day when the surface was strongly favoring runners with early speed. She was defeated over a fair, fast track two back, and I believe she’s facing a field of similar quality today. One of the primary alternatives is Letmetakethiscall, who got back to the winner’s circle when dropped in for a claiming tag last time out. Feb. 10 was a day that was strongly favoring runners that raced on the rail, and Letmetakethiscall did spend a large portion of the race running along the inside path before angling out approaching the stretch. On the other hand, she was severely hindered by a poor break that left her approximately 3 lengths behind the field at the start, making her overall performance difficult to assess. I’m using her, but my top selection is Shimmering Moon. Some may be deterred by her most recent poor effort, but she had a significant excuse that day. Feb. 9 was yet another day that featured an inside bias, and this one was as strong as any we have seen during the entire meet. Shimmering Moon raced 3- to 4-wide throughout and truly never had a chance to get involved in the race. Notably, we have already seen third-place finisher Summer Punch return to win her next start. Shimmering Moon had previously run respectably against tougher competition at the open N1X level and she’s the only horse who possesses the speed to stay close to Leah’s Dream early.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 6: CLAIRE’S KITTY (#3)
With the scratches of both morning line favorites, Votre Coeur and Moolah Schmoolah, my original top pick Claire's Kitty becomes the clear and obvious horse to beat. Claire’s Kitty ran some competitive speed figures going a route of ground on the dirt as a 3-year-old before heading to the sidelines in late summer. Any number of those Kentucky efforts would make her a serious rival for Moolah Schmoolah, yet some may be deterred by her lackluster return effort on Feb. 18. I’m willing to give her a pass for that performance since she was not ridden to be competitive that day. Apprentice Joey Martinez has developed a habit of riding horses far too conservatively in the early portions of a race, allowing them to drop far back out of contention, and that’s exactly what happened with this filly. It’s difficult to make up ground on the dirt, so Claire’s Kitty basically had no chance after a quarter of a mile. Now she’s stretching out to a more appropriate distance and is getting a significant rider up grade to Dylan Davis. She should be fitter in her second start off the layoff and the slight class relief should only help.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,6,8
RACE 7: PARLAPIANO (#4)
I made Honey Graeme the slight favorite on the morning line, and I’ll be interested to see how this highly competitive race gets bet by the public. I don’t like Honey Graeme at all, but I see why some may regard her as the horse to beat. In my opinion, she faced a pitiful field when she won two back and benefited from racing on a gold rail last time. I strongly prefer Danny Gargan’s other horse, Our Girl Abby, who was actually 2- to 3-wide against that same strong rail bias on Feb. 10 and still finished only 1 3/4 lengths behind her stablemate. In some ways, Our Girl Abby is the horse to beat, especially considering the apparent lack of pace in this field. I’m using her prominently, but there are a couple of other intriguing contenders. I’m not sure what to do with Starlite Mission, who appears to have gone off form for Gary Contessa. On the other hand, she may not have appreciated stretching out in distance two back and she was also against a bias last time. Those efforts are better than they seem, but I still get the sense that her best days may be behind her. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Parlapiano. At first glance, she looks far too slow to compete against a field of this quality, but that’s also why she’s somewhat appealing. Rudy Rodriguez is not the type of trainer to run horses in spots where they are unlikely to be competitive, especially first off the claim. Therefore, I think it’s a very good sign that he’s moving this filly up in class in her first start for the new barn. Furthermore, her recent efforts are actually a lot better than they seem. She ran extremely well two back when making a menacing far turn move while racing extremely wide over a rail-biased surface. Then last time she was hard-used in the early going to make an early rush to the lead on the far turn following an exceptionally fast opening quarter-mile fraction. She got leg-weary in deep stretch, but was an utterly dominant winner. If she builds on those efforts, she’s going to be a major factor in this spot.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 8: ICEY CASH (#5)
This race is a lavish feast for trip handicappers who pay attention to track biases. Almost every horse in this field is coming out of a race that was somehow affected by a surface bias. The most pertinent race to discuss is the finale on Feb. 16, of which 6 of today’s entrants exit. The horse who attained the best result that day was Dash for Dollars, who finished second, over 8 lengths clear of the rest of the field. However, Dash for Dollars was one of the few runners who rode the rail for a significant portion of his trip. His prior form hardly makes him worthy of favoritism in this spot, so I believe that he’s a terrible bet at a short price. The other 5 horses exiting that Feb. 16 event all had more interesting trips and were against the track to some extent. However, I’m not interested in the runners that just lagged at the back of the pack and picked up pieces in the final furlong. In my opinion, their against-the-bias trips were mitigated by the fact that they weren’t exerting themselves in the early going. The one horse who ran a particularly competitive race for entirety of his one-mile trip and was against the bias is Icey Cash, and I believe he’s clearly the one that you want out of that Feb. 16 heat. The pace of that race was honest, and Icey Cash deserves credit for racing closest to the early leader through the opening furlongs. Looking at Trakus figures, he lost just as much ground as those towards the back of the pack while racing 2- to 3-wide on the turn, covering between 15 and 20 more feet than the other horses who rounded out the superfecta. The problem with Icey Cash is that his prior form is terrible. That said, young horses are capable of improving at this time of year and it’s notable that he was coming off Lasix for the first time in his most recent start. For those reasons, it’s at least worth entertaining the prospect that he just took a step forward that day, and his improvement won’t be apparent to handicappers who fail to grasp the nuances of his trip. Furthermore, Icey Cash has tactical speed, which should be respected in this largely paceless affair. I believe he’s the right horse in relatively confusing race, and he’s going to be a square price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6