by David Aragona
This is not some ordinary Friday card in the winter at Aqueduct. These races are filled with worthwhile wagering opportunities. In particularly, the $50,000 claiming sprint that goes as the 5th race is among the most competitive races that’s been drawn in recent weeks. The late Pick-4 sequence appears to be immensely difficult, as it ends with a familiar group of hard-knocking New York-breds in the featured 8th race, which leads into a 14-horse scramble in the finale.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 9 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 8 - 13 - 12
RACE 2: ZIPPITY ZOOM (#3)
My Won Love is likely to go off at a short price following her runner-up finish at this level a month ago. That was her first official start for the Rudy Rodriguez barn after finishing third in a similar race in January. While she deserves respect off that solid recent form, she’s not the most reliable win candidate, failing to register a victory in 16 starts since the beginning of 2017. I prefer the mare that finished behind her last on Feb. 9. That day, My Won Love received a solid early pace to close into, as the two speeds Zippity Zoom and Awesome News dueled through the opening fractions while drawing well clear of their rivals.
Zippity Zoom put away her early foe, but left herself vulnerable to stretch challenges. Considering that it was the first start in nearly 5 months for Zippity Zoom, she had a right to need the race. This time, there are no speedy rivals like Awesome News, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she control the early pace in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. She’s the one I want as the likely second choice in the wagering. In addition to the favorite, I would also use her with Decoration Jenn, as she ran well enough to beat this field in her first start off the claim for Naipaul Chatterpaul before getting thrown into an unrealistic spot last time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with ALL
RACE 4: FLAT CALM (#2)
Dancingwthdaffodls appears to be the most reliable runner, following her solid performance going today’s distance last time out. That came against $50,000 maiden claimers, but it’s not as if this maiden special weight affair represents a major rise in class, given the mediocre quality of the field. She handled the stretch-out well, considering that she was racing two-wide on a day when you probably wanted to be on the rail. I prefer her to the other runner with experience likely to take money. Linda Rice, who had trained Dancingwthdaffodls prior to the claim by Bruce Brown, sends out two runners in this race, and both figure to take money. Breezy Gal should attract support based solely on Rice’s excellent statistics with second-time-starting maidens. On the other hand, she really didn’t do much running in her debut, in which she took no money at all, going off at over 18-1.
I actually prefer Rice’s firster Flat Calm. This one attracts her go-to winter rider Junior Alvarado and is clearly bred to excel going longer distances. She’s by route sire Flatter and out of a female family full of stamina influences, tracing back to the great Canadian mare Dance Smartly. While Rice is known for her success second time out, she actually does very well with firsters in this situation. Over the past five years, she is 4 for 12 (33 percent, $2.32 ROI) with first-time starters in dirt routes at Aqueduct, and nine of those finished in the money.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,6,7
RACE 5: BOLITA BOYZ (#9) / FOREST BLUE (#7)
In a wildly competitive race, Helooksthepart might be the horse to beat. He was defeated by two of today’s rivals in his last race, but the slow early pace of that affair did this gelding no favors. He also encountered traffic at a couple of points when trying to angle out into position to make his late run. Helooksthepart was claimed out of that race by the capable Antonio Arriaga, who interestingly names Manny Franco rather than regular stable rider Abel Lezcano. This horse is indeed moving up in class, but he possesses a reliable late run and must be taken seriously. I strongly prefer him to some others that are likely to attract attention, such as Big Guy Ian, who rode a gold rail when winning last time.
Another runner that interests me at a slightly better price is Forest Blue. This horse is getting a needed drop in class after facing tougher foes at the N1X allowance level in three straight starts. He was badly overmatched when finishing behind some classy runners in recent starts and was likely hindered by a two- to three-wide trip over a track that was favoring inside paths last time out. Over the past five years, Robertino Diodoro is 34 for 111 (31 percent, $2.96 ROI) with horses dropping from allowance to claiming races in dirt sprints. I’ll certainly use him, but my top pick is a runner that should go off at a higher price.
Bolita Boyz has undoubtedly been a disappointment for trainer Rudy Rodriguez since he was claimed in mid-November. However, one could argue that he hasn’t really had a chance to shine in two starts for the new barn. In his first start off the claim, he was simply facing a field that was too tough, as the winner Skyler’s Scramjet is bound for graded stakes. That race’s fourth-place finisher, Very Very Stella, who finished just a length ahead of Bolita Boyz, would undeniably be a clear favorite in this spot. After that, Rodriguez tried stretching Bolita Boyz out to a mile, and he simply failed to handle the distance and the muddy surface. Now he drops back to the more appropriate $50,000 level, and he should get an honest pace to close into, with likely speeds Rockford, Big Guy Ian, and Curtis drawn to his inside. He’s capable of running just as fast as all of his key rivals, and he figures to go off at a square price.
Win: 7,9
Exacta Box: 6,7,9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 6: FRATELLO DEL NORD (#8)
This race was borne out of the combination of two cancelled races from last Friday’s card. Trainer Robertino Diodoro holds a strong hand here as he sends out two of the three runners likely to go off at short prices in this race. The deserving favorite is his runner Toohottoevenspeak, who comes off a win in a cheaper conditioned claiming race. He’s stepping up to a tougher level here, but this race did not come up as strong as some other $25,000 state-bred claimers that we see run at this circuit. He’s one that needs to be used, but I’d be wary of accepting too short a price on a horse who is just 3 for 30 in his career. Diodoro’s other horse We Did is one to consider as he drops in class, but he must avoid falling too far off the early pace. The same goes for Calculated Risker, who closed to win an allowance race last time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, which could work against both of these runners.
For that reason, I want to take a shot with one of the potential speeds in this race. Fratello Del Nord returns off a brief layoff following a trainer switch to Abigail Adsit. While she does not have strong recent numbers off trainer switches, this is still a slight upgrade from the barn that previously campaigned this horse. Fratello Del Nord is obviously capable of running fast enough to beat all three of the aforementioned favorites when he’s at his best. That was the case two back on Dec. 17, but prior to that he had run all of his best races for Chris Englehart. I’m hoping that Abigail Adsit can get him close to that form. He’s drawn well outside for this seven-furlong affair and should be able to outrun an off-form Final Chapter to the lead.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5
RACE 8: JEWEL CAN DISCO (#1)
Mission Command is one of a few runners likely to attract significant support in Friday’s feature. He broke through his N1X allowance condition in solid fashion, soundly defeating next-out winner Benevolence while earning a speed figure that should make him competitive against this tougher field. On the other hand, he’s now been off for nearly three months since that victory. Over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is just 2 for 27 (7 percent, $0.33 ROI) with last-out winners coming off layoffs of 60 to 120 days in dirt sprints. At a relatively short price, I think he’s one to bet against.
I strongly prefer the other horse who figures to vie for favoritism in this race. Jewel Can Disco ran quite well, considering the circumstances last time. The early pace of that race was on the quick side, and Jewel Can Disco had to work hard to secure a clear lead in the early stages. The pace came apart late as closers were running on at the end, and a tiring Jewel Can Disco probably was not aided by the tactics of his rider, who was steering him left and right through the stretch in an effort to keep the lead. This horse is naturally fast out of the gate, so I have no doubt that Dylan Davis will be just as effective in hustling him to the front. Six furlongs is the perfect distance for this horse, and he’s already proven that he’s capable of holding off the late surges of horses like Heavy Meddle and Giantinthemoonlite. While I generally don’t endorse favorites in competitive races, I just think this one is a little better than his rivals.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,8
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,8 with 2,3,4,6,8
RACE 9: ANDRONIKOS (#6)
Based on his last effort, Flipped might just be better than this field. He finished a solid second behind favored Comeoncomeoncat, denying Dylan Davis a record-setting seventh win on that Feb. 18 card. It was a distinct improvement over his troubled debut. The only potential knock is that he will likely to have race over a fast track for the first time on Friday after encountering sloppy surfaces in each of his first two starts. He will be tough to beat, but I want to take a small shot against him with a runner that may offer some value. At first glance, Andronikos’s first race doesn’t look like anything special. Yet he actually put in a much stronger effort than it seems. The early pace of that race was very fast for the distance (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). While the resulting speed figure was still relatively slow, the horse that he was dueling with in the early stages of that race was second-place finisher Binkster. Not only did Binkster return to win his next start, but he did so while improving his Beyer Speed Figure 28 points and his TimeformUS Speed Figure 25 points. Based on that evidence, Andronikos has a right to take a big step forward here. I like the cutback to 6 furlongs for a horse that may have distance limitations anyway. He also gets Lasix and a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche for his second start.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8,10,12,13
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 7,10,12,13