PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   12 - 14 - 10 - 13
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 14 - 16 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   15 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 3 - 9 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 5: PUFFERY (#6)
Cartwheel figures to go off as the clear public choice in this NY-bred optional claimer, and she could be formidable based on her recent form. However, I don’t think she has the kind of class edge that some might perceive and I’m concerned that she could be overbet in this spot. Some may find her appealing off her fourth place finish in the Saratoga Dew two back, but that was a stakes in name only, as there wasn’t much depth to that field. She earned a respectable speed figure behind Ratajkowski last time, but it’s not as if she was ever a threat, barely hold off Maiden Beauty for second, and that rival is going to be a much better price. I’m taking a shot against her with Puffery. This filly has yet to really step forward since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. However, I think her efforts are slightly better than they appear. She faced a deceptively strong field last time and was compromised by a poor start. Prior to that, she showed good speed in the slop at Saratoga before fading. While she’s focused on sprints recently, she’s been successful going this far in the past, and she has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip in a race that is projected to favor runners towards the front end.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL

RACE 7: MY BRONX TAIL (#6)
Smooth With a Kick will be a prohibitive favorite in this spot after chasing home the classy Off Topic last time. I don’t have a major issue with her, but she tends to get overbet, and I think that’s going to be the case again here. There isn’t much speed in this field and Smooth With a Kick’s connections have made it clear that they she’s best rating off the pace. She reacted badly to racing inside of horses two back, so I worry a bit about the trip she might pull here. I have even less confidence in Chad Brown’s other horse, Canteen, who beat a very weak field to break her maiden last time. I want to go in a different direction. I’m interested in My Brox Tail on the stretch-out. This filly seemed like one that had serious stamina limitations earlier in her career, but she’s transformed for Michelle Nevin into a far more robust 4-year-old filly. She had no trouble getting the 7 furlongs two back against a maiden field that wasn’t significantly worse than this group of winners. She seems like a true need-the-lead type, so I can draw a line through her last race when they experimented with rating tactics. In this spot, Luis Reyes just had to hustle her to the front, and she might be able to do the rest.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL

RACE 9: MAEDEAN (#5)
The two main players in this Tempted are Power Move and Maedean, both of whom seem like candidates to progress further out of this spot, potentially setting themselves up as favorites for the Demoiselle on Cigar Mile Day. Power Move figures to be favored on the heels of her dazzling debut victory, in which she settle beautiful and displayed an electric turn of foot through the stretch, easily rallying past a leader who appeared to be on her way to victory. Now she has to stretch out in her second start, and Shug McGaughey does tend to get overbet in these situations. That said, she has the pedigree to be effective going longer and she’s continued to train well. Nevertheless, I slightly prefer Maedean, who has already won going this distance. She accomplished that one-mile victory when breaking her maiden last time, winning in fast time over what appeared to be a solid group of rivals. She did work out a perfect trip that day, but I was still pleased to see her power away from a talented rival, galloping out well clear of the rest. As the likely second choice, I want to lean in her direction.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with ALL