PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 10 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 7 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: REDHAIRDON’TCARE (#1)
The heavy favorite on the morning line is Strategic Dreams, and she is clearly the horse to beat. Despite making her debut at Saratoga in August for a tag, she put in a really solid effort, drawing off to win by more than 14 lengths. Her only subsequent start came against a tough field in the Grade 1 Frizette, and she gave a decent account of herself. She dueled for the early lead and faded in the late stages, appearing not to handle the added ground. Nevertheless, she earned a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that run, the highest number in the field. I'm certainly using her, but my top pick is Redhairdon'tcare. This filly hinted at having some ability with a fast sales workout earlier this year, and she ran to that early promise by leading all the way to win her debut at Belmont last month. She was getting somewhat leg weary in the late stages, but she had run pretty hard up until that point. She needs to improve to beat the favorite, but it's likely that she will. Over the past five years, Tony Dutrow is 6 for 10 (60 percent, $5.13 ROI) with debut winners making their second career starts in dirt sprints.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,5

RACE 4: CHICLET’S DREAM (#2)
I have no strong argument against Giant Zinger. This filly actually ran very well in her second start last month at Belmont. Despite breaking a bit slowly and racing wide for her entire trip, she still closed relentlessly through the lane, just failing to get by the more experienced winner in the final strides. She'll need to save a bit more ground over this Aqueduct turf course, but she's nevertheless the horse to beat. At a slightly better price, my pick is Chiclet's Dream. Her dirt race is not terribly important to me, since she's clearly meant for turf. That said, she did run a lot better than it seems in that debut. She broke well and was up close early, but appeared to react badly to the kickback and greenly dropped far out of contention before re-rallying to be third. She showed some ability, and she figures to take a big step forward moving to the surface she's bred to handle.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,8,10

RACE 7: ANGEL FOOD (#5)
People generally think of Bill Mott as a trainer whose horses aren't prepared for their debuts in any circumstances. Yet that's just not true. While he does not have the strongest numbers with 2-year-old first-time starters, he is much more effective with older horses, and has pretty fantastic statistics with fillies. Over the past five years, Mott is 12 for 36 (33 percent, $3.94 ROI) with 3-year-old filly first-time starters in dirt sprints. Given the strength of those numbers, and the relatively subpar competition in this spot, I have to make Angel Food my top pick. She's actually bred to be a decent sprinter, as her stakes-winning dam won more than $260,000 while racing primarily in dirt sprints. She's a half-sister to one six-figure earner and she appears to be working strongly for her debut.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7

RACE 8: SPRING TO THE SKY (#8)
End Play is one that I think you have to use in this spot, but I'm not sure that I'd want to bet him as the favorite. He didn't have any major excuse last time, as he got a pretty good trip and reached contention late, but just couldn't quite seal the deal. He usually shows up, but I prefer others in the top slot. The horse that I think you're supposed to bet out of his last start is Spring to the Sky. The pace of that race was pretty fast (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs), and he did well to hang on for second in a race that was falling apart. This horse has a tendency to break a bit slowly, but I thought he responded well to the aggressive tactics employed by Kendrick Carmouche last time, and I'm encouraged that he's back aboard here.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,7