PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 9 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 2
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 6 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: ATLANTA’S ACUNA (#4)

Some might view Provision (#9) as the horse to beat in this opener, but there’s a pattern developing with this gelding, as he’s settled for second in all four of his starts. He should appreciate getting back on his preferred surface after competing in an off the turf affair last time, but he’s still a little light on speed figures and others come in here with more upside. Among the new faces, a few first time starters have solid turf pedigrees. I would use Clear Conscience (#1), a son of Blame out of a turf-winning dam. Christophe Clement has good numbers with these types, and he’s drawn well on the rail. Yet my top pick is a horse trying this surface for the first time. Atlanta’s Acuna (#4) showed ability in his first couple of dirt starts, which led to him going favored as an MTO in an off the turf race last time. For whatever reason, he didn’t show up that day, fading after contesting the pace, so now his connections are giving him a chance to switch surfaces. He does have pedigree to take to turf. He’s by 11% turf route sire Cross Traffic, the dam was a 3-time turf winner, and the best half-sibling is 3-time turf winner Mopolka. He also looks like one that might be well suited to the surface switch as a lighter-framed horse with a big, loping stride. He drew well inside and should be forwardly placed throughout.

WIN: #4 Atlanta's Acuna, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 1

RACE 3: BATTLE SCARS (#1)

This New York-bred optional claimer is an intriguing convergence of horses on the downswing and those on the upswing. To put it more explicitly, it pits horses racing for the $45k optional claiming tag against those who fit the allowance condition and may inherently have more upside. The two high-profile contenders in for the tag are Graded On a Curve (#8) and Therapist (#9). Both can easily beat this field if they show up with their best efforts, but it’s fair to have some questions about their current form. Graded On a Curve is arguably more trustworthy as he drops in class after putting in some respectable efforts against open company. However, he’s surely seen better days and is drawn outside in a paceless affair. That lack of pace could compromise Therapist even more, as he has absolutely no early speed. He also comes in off a poor effort in his first start off the claim for George Weaver, who quickly drops him down to nearly half the price for which he acquired him. I want to go in a different direction. Among those who fit this allowance condition, Grape Nuts Warrior (#4) and Catch That Party (#5) both make sense. The former recently finished a narrow second at this level, and the latter flew him to just miss second into a slow pace. I would use both, but I’m more interested in a horse with a different profile. Battle Scars (#1) is running one condition up, as he’s still eligible for the N1X level. However, he’s not out of place here based on form and his connections probably want to get in a race before turf season ends, since he’s been rained off the turf or stuck on the AE list recently. He ran a huge race coming off the layoff last time, closing into a slow pace while racing wide against a strong rail bias. He had been competitive with Grape Nuts Warrior when he competed here last year, and he’s going to be a much bigger price than that foe this time. Like others, he could be compromised by pace, but I’m hoping Kendrick Carmouche gets a little more aggressive from this inside draw.

WIN: #1 Battle Scars, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 4,5,8

RACE 5: CHAYSENBRYN (#3)

I’m skeptical of horses who could take money in this spot. I suppose the public has to bet some money on Tough Street (#5), who comes in off a 12-length maiden romp for Chad Brown. That was the best performance by her career, and she earned a speed figure that makes her competitive against this field. However, I’m pretty skeptical that she can repeat it on the class rise, though her chances do improve after the scratch of main pace rival Monshun. Mia Bea Star (#6) seems like the most logical alternative based on her recent form. She’s run fast races in each of her last two starts, twice settling for second behind the superior Know It All Audrey. However, I’m a little concerned that Randi Persaud is squeezing the lemon dry as she makes her third start in the last 15 days. She’s also never been the most reliable win candidate at 3-for-36 lifetime. I want to go in a different direction with Chaysenbryn (#3). She finished Mia Bea Star last time, but the slight turnback to 7 furlongs was more suitable to that foe. Chaysenbryn much prefers this one-mile trip, and she’s run some of her best races at Aqueduct in the past. She had a light summer schedule, but seemed to maintain good form off the slight layoff last time and could now be set for a step forward.

WIN: #3 Chaysenbryn, at 5-2 or greater