PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   13 - 1 - 10 - 14
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   16 - 4 - 14 - 15
Race 6:   10 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 8:   14 - 1A - 13 - 10
Race 9:   4 - 7 - 3 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 2: LOST IN ROME (#2)
There are four major contenders in this race. Three of those are coming off career-best efforts, as Anzio Beach and Pier Forty broke their maidens last time out, and Allied Invasion took a significant step forward switching to dirt for the first time. They all figure to have a say in the outcome if able to repeat those efforts. However, there are some reasons to be skeptical, as the two recent maiden breakers are moving up in class and Allied Invasion got a perfect trip when second at a cheaper level last time. I think they’ll all have to improve again to beat Lost In Rome if that one is able to recapture his best form. This 3-year-old was consistently earning some of the fastest speed figures in this field while facing maidens through the summer. While those efforts came sprinting, he successfully stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in an off-the-turf race on September 3, running a race that would probably put him in the winner’s circle here. He obviously didn’t run well in his first start against winners last time, but he was in over his head that day and lost all chance at the start when getting away sluggishly. He’s clearly better than that and I think he can use his tactical speed to rebound at this more appropriate level.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,7

RACE 5: CREATIVE STYLE (#16)
I’d be more interested in this race if it comes off the turf and is contested at a mile on the dirt. Both Siding Spring and Lucky Ramsey would figure to take money in that situation. Siding Spring did run a strong dirt race at Saratoga two back, but he got a pretty favorable pace setup that day and his overall dirt form is less consistent than some others in here. Lucky Ramsey does bring consistency to the table, as he’s yet to finish out of the exacta in 8 starts for Claudio Gonzalez. He’s a major player on dirt, but I’d want to go in a slightly different direction. Creative Style makes his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez after not getting the best ride last time. Eric Cancel had him surprisingly close to the pace in the early going, but then he inexplicably followed a tiring horse into the stretch and lost all his momentum when caught in traffic at the quarter pole. All things considered, the horse actually did well to gather himself and rally for fourth after that. He’s better than that form indicates, and a one-turn mile is arguably his best distance. As long as he runs as well here, I think he has the slight advantage over those two rivals who were entered for turf.

Win: 16
Exacta: 16 with 4,14,15

RACE 6: FARRAGUT (#10)
Blackjack Davey is clearly the horse to beat as he encounters a relatively weak field for this level. He didn’t have a major excuse to lose as the 6-5 favorite last time when checking in a dull fifth. However, that was a stronger N1X allowance field, as third-place finisher Six Percent returned to win again with a strong speed figure. Blackjack Davey might not have to improve much on the 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned that day to beat most of the runners in this field. However, I do think he’ll have to recapture some semblance of his top form to defeat one rival. Farragut finished one spot ahead of Blackjack Davey when they met in that Sep. 25 affair, and I felt that the Pat Quick trainee had the tougher trip. This colt was conservatively ridden early and then forced to make a wide move to nowhere on a day when horses were better off being on the inside. While he was again defeated at this level on Oct. 17, I felt hat he took a subtle step forward that day. The early pace was extremely fast for the distance, and Farragut got caught chasing the run-off Red Zinger, who ended up finishing last. Considering how fast he went early, Farragut had every right to lose ground to the talented pair Six Percent and Cold Hard Cash. I still think this horse is best going longer, and I like the outside post position for him in this spot, especially considering that there isn’t that much early speed drawn inside of him.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,4,9
Trifecta: 10 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,6,9