PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 9 - 8
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   9 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   8 - 3 - 2 - 10
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 7 - 9 - 5
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 6 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 1: BEACH ACCESS (#4)
Vintage Hollywood is going to be a strong favorite in this race as he drops in class on the trainer switch to Mike Maker. While the plunge from allowance company down to this bottom-level price tag might seem drastic, it’s worth keeping in mind that this runner competed for a $16,000 tag as recently as August at Del Mar, so he’s really just returning to the level at which he was last successful. However, my problem with this horse is that he basically got good without warning this summer, and it appears as if that form may have left him just as readily. While the drop may help, his last two speed figures don’t give him any major edge over this field, and his general lack of speed could be especially detrimental in a paceless race that will contested over a track that has not been kind to closers. The best alternative that I can find is Beach Access. This gelding ran very well over this track last winter, winning going this distance in February before finishing third at this level in his last try over a fast dirt track in March. Each of his last 3 dirt TimeformUS Speed Figures, ranging from 94 to 97, are faster than any of Vintage Hollywood’s recent numbers, and he’s going to be a much better price. The layoff is obviously a concern, but he has the right running style for this race. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and his rider Joey Martinez has been riding horses like this very aggressively in recent weeks. As long as he makes the front, I think he’ll be difficult for this group to run down, even if Vintage Hollywood shows up.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 2: WAR CANOE (#7)
The two main players in this race, after the scratch of Sorrentina Lemon, bring vastly different résumés into this spot. The potential favorite is Reversethedecision, who makes her second start following a lengthy layoff. She showed promise during her 3-year-old season, picking up minor checks in a couple of graded stakes. While she was only able to get up for second in that return last time, winner Sweet Bye and Bye and third-place Victorine returned to finish second and fourth in the Grade 3 Athenia next time out. She should be fitter in her second start off the layoff and doesn’t need to improve much at all to beat this field. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is the seasoned mare War Canoe. She’s been a different runner since getting claimed at Saratoga, first showing improvement for Danny Gargan in her win at the Spa and continuing that forward progression in Linda Rice’s barn. Her last two TimeformUS Speed Figures are some of the best any of these have ever achieved on turf, and the fact that she finished in close proximity to the very talented Fifty Five validates that form. She doesn’t possess the upside of others as a 6-year-old, but she’ll be very dangerous if she merely holds her form.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,8,9
Trifecta: 7 with 3,9 with 3,4,8,9

RACE 6: MALIBU TOO (#4)
The race appears to be all about either the first-time starters or those trying the turf for the first time, since just one runner in the main body of the field has any prior turf form at all. Of those switching to turf, Moana’s Tale may attract some support. Bayern isn’t known as the greatest turf influence, but Moana’s Tale’s dam was a turf winner and this filly was entered for grass in her debut. She didn’t run badly that day and Danny Gargan’s runners often improve with a start under their belts. I’m using her, but my top pick is another first-time turfer, the longshot Malibu Too. This expensive yearling purchase was badly distanced in the late stages of her debut on dirt. While she wasn’t competitive that day, the race she exits may be stronger than it appears. The winner returned to run 6 TimeformUS points faster in a stakes despite having a ton of trouble and the runnerup returned to win, improving by 14 points. Malibu Moon wins with 9% of his first time turfers and 10% of turf starters overall. While the dam was 0 for 3 on turf, she ran her highest Beyer on that surface and has produced a turf winner. I expect this filly to take a step forward on the surface switch and I also won’t be surprised if she shows more speed this time. Looking beyond those with experience, there are a number of firsters with pedigree. Pandamom is out of the multiple turf-winning dam Akilina, and appears to be working well. Additionally, Dash Dot Dot is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Dot Matrix, and Giacosa is a full sister to a pair of capable turf performers.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,8,11

RACE 8: BREAK CURFEW (#2)
Two of the main players in this allowance affair participated in the Grade 2 Prioress over the summer at Saratoga. Kept True may go favored here despite finishing last that day, as she had won both of her prior starts as a 3-year-old, albeit against New York-bred company. I’m using her defensively, but some others are more intriguing. The other Prioress participant Break Curfew is where I’ve landed. This filly actually did well to hang on for fourth that day after chasing the very fast Break Even around the track. That 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure should be good enough to win this race. Some may be deterred by her one effort since then, as she faded to finish last at Belmont. However, she never had a chance after stumbling after the start and failing to make the lead. Break Curfew has never shown a great affinity for wet tracks, so she should be forgiving for failing to produce her best form over that muddy surface last time. Now she’s moving to Aqueduct and a dirt surface that has been pretty kind to speed runners lately. The Pace Projector is predicting that she should vie for the front end with Alisio early in a situation favoring the front-runners. She’s my top pick, but I do respect that two fillies who finished ahead of her last time. Alisio has obviously improved for Kiaran McLaughlin, though I wonder how much her last effort can be attributed to the wet track, which she seems to relish. The other one you want out of that race might be Concerned, who got off to an even worse start than Break Curfew and had to adapt to a new running style, rallying from the back of the pack. She has a right to do better here with a clean break.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 4,6,7 with 4,5,6,7

RACE 10: SUPER TWENTY SEVEN (#2)
Jen’s Battle is going to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot as she drops in for a tag for the first time on the turf. The drop in class on dirt worked well for her last time, even though that clearly isn’t her preferred surface. She’s simply been facing far stronger fields in her recent turf attempts, beaten by a pair of capable Michelle Nevin trained runners in both appearances at the maiden special weight level on turf. I don’t really have any knocks against her other than the prospect of a very short price, and the fact that she’s going out for a barn that has been pretty cold over the past several months. Among the logical alternatives are firster Miss Gold Medalist, who has limited grass pedigree, and Impazible Girl, who also takes the drop in class but didn’t run as well in her maiden special weight start. They’ll be on my tickets, but the alternative that intrigues me most is a first time turfer. Super Twenty Seven debuted in a bad four-horse field on the dirt in October, and she didn’t do much to distinguish herself despite hanging on for second. Gary Gullo isn’t necessarily known for sending out turf runners, but I get the sense that this filly may be able to move up with the switch to grass. She has a stride that should lend itself well to turf, and she has the pedigree to support this move. Her dam made 6 starts, all of them on turf, winning once with a respectable speed figure. This dam is yet to produce a turf winner, but she herself is a half-sister to My Miss Sophia, who was third in the Grade 1 First Lady on the turf, as well as turf winner Flowerbomb.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,3,4,6,7