by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 2B - 5 - 3 - 1A
Race 7: 13 - 15 - 12 - 6
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 9 - 14 - 4 - 13
RACE 1: RUCKSACK (#5)
Allured is clearly the horse to beat in this spot, and his price is likely to be driven down even further since he’s trained by Chad Brown. He’s obviously returned in the best form of his career in 2018. I wasn’t overly thrilled with his third-place finish on Sept. 1, as he worked out a pretty good trip that day, but he definitely improved in his second start off the layoff on Oct. 5. That was another day at Belmont when the rail was yielding an advantage, and Allured did well to close for second despite making a wide run into the stretch. He seemingly had no trouble handling the stretch-out to a mile, and the speed figure for that performance was fast. However, there are some other runners with talent in this race, and I’m not sure I want to accept too short of a price on a horse who has already had plenty of chances. Most will consider Personal Time to be his main rival. This full brother to Kentucky Derby winner Orb may ultimately prove to be the best of this bunch, but I’m not sure that this is the day to support him. He possesses no early speed, so he’s going to be badly compromised by a lack of pace in this race, and he may not be ready to fire his best shot off the layoff. I want to take a shot against the favorites with Rucksack. At first glance, he looks like a bit of a stretch in a field this talented. After all, he’s lost against maiden-claiming company on multiple occasions and has never run as fast as Allured or Personal Time. However, he is going to play out as the controlling speed in a race that lacks any true pace foes, and he is getting a significant trainer switch to Ray Handal. He’s also not that bad. He finished just four lengths behind Illudere two back, and that’s the horse who beat Allured last time out. This barn has done very well off the claim over the past couple of seasons, and trainers have had success claiming off the Nick Zito barn in recent years. Rucksack needs to improve by a few lengths to beat this group, but I don’t think that’s outside the realm of possibility, and he’s going to be a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2
RACE 4: DEVIL’S FLAIR (#6)
It’s a Lovely Day is the second Chad Brown trainee on this card who could drift down to odds-on territory. This filly is getting some significant class relief after putting forth a decent effort to be third in her debut, which was among the fastest races that any of these have ever run. However, her connections are giving up pretty quickly on a filly who was purchased for a hefty sum, and it’s not as if she’s a cinch to beat this field if she merely repeats her debut performance. I’m not denying that she’s the most likely winner, but I think there are others to consider at much more palatable prices. The one I want to bet is Devil’s Flair. This filly has actually run better than it appears in both of her dirt starts. She was very green on Sept. 14, as she was shuffled back after showing some early speed. She then rallied despite going very wide around the far turn. We saw Rossby, who was also wide against a rail bias in that race, return to win next time out. Devil’s Flair returned at a mile last time, and I thought she put in a decent effort to be third after making a wide bid around the far turn. The speed figure came back slow, but the top two finishers out of that race have returned to run much faster in subsequent starts. This filly is going to get ignored for low-profile connections, but I think she’s subtly shown more talent than most of her rivals.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
RACE 7: PALLADIAN BRIDGE (#13)
In some ways, this is actually a more interesting race on the dirt. There is likely to be value to exploit since Glossy, who was the morning line favorite on the turf, has been left in the race. There are true dirt allowance horses in this race, and Glossy has never indicated that she is talented enough to compete with runners of their caliber. The only horse within the main body of the field whom I would consider is Dancing All Night. It’s curious that Shug McGaughey has entered her for turf in each of her last two starts given that she’s run much better on the dirt. Nevertheless, her best races give her a chance. I’m using her, but the bulk of the contenders are on the Main Track Only list. Naples Princess is the one that should be favored. She’s run quite well in all three of her starts this year and finally started to run some faster races over the summer at Saratoga. If she gets any pace to close into, she should be difficult to hold off. Another horse that I would include is Bluegrass Jamboree, who made a menacing 4-wide move against a gold rail last time and actually ran better than it appears to be third. Each of the top two finishers returned to run well against stakes company, so the race may have been stronger than it first appeared. My top selection is Palladian Bridge. I acknowledge that her recent form may concern some handicappers, but I think you can make valid excuses for most of her poor efforts. She had a meltdown prior to her race at Saratoga three back when she failed to show up with a competitive effort, and last time she was simply overmatched against a tougher field in the Iroquois. That race was full of other speed types and she lost interest once she got too far back. Palladian Bridge also has developed this bad race / good race pattern during her time in the Ray Handal barn. Today is supposed to be a day that she shows up with one of her better efforts. Any moisture left in the track should not hurt her since she has run some of her best races on wet tracks.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 6,12,14,15
Trifecta: 13 with 12,15 with 6,12,14,15