PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 1/1A - 2/2B - 4
Race 3:   3 - 1A - 4 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 8 - 1 - 10
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 1/1A - 3
Race 8:   1 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 4 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: ST. LOUIE (#3)
Both Roman Approval and Gold Shield figure to take money in this spot after finishing just behind Call Provision last month at Belmont Park. That runner returned to finish a strong second in the Grade 3 Red Smith earlier at this meet, validating the form of that race. However, Call Provision was much the best that day, so I don’t want to give these two too much credit. I’ll use them, but my top selection is St. Louie. This horse has been in excellent form for Mike Maker ever since stretching out to marathon distances on the turf. He was a game fourth at long odds behind a talented trio of runners in the Kentucky Turf Cup two back, and he followed that with a strong allowance win at Keeneland. At first glance, it might not seem like a positive that he won by only a half-length as the even-money favorite. However, he made an early move to the lead and was very game to hold off two runners that had saved ground all the way. Considering the circumstances, it was a strong effort. Mike Maker has great numbers in turf marathons. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 55 (24 percent, $2.81 ROI) in turf races at 10 furlongs or farther on the NYRA circuit.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4

RACE 5: POCKET PLAYER (#4)
I suppose Gosilently and Appealing Briefs are the two most likely winners of this race. The latter has put forth plenty of competitive efforts, but he’s been relatively short prices in all of his recent starts and he just fails to get the job done. Gosilently at least has a pace advantage in this race, and should try to lead this field wire to wire. However, I haven’t been thrilled with either of his last two starts. Each time he’s been right on top of moderate-to-slow paces, and he just hasn’t sealed the deal. Therefore, I’m taking a shot against them with Pocket Player. This runner’s return from the layoff last time wasn’t nearly as bad as it seems. The pace of that Sept. 29 race was very slow, and he never really had a chance to make up ground while racing behind horses for much of the stretch drive. All things considered he did fine to lose second by just over a length. Now he’s making his second start off the layoff and he figures to take a step forward.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7

RACE 7: MISS AJA BROWN (#2)
Lamontagne was installed as the favorite on the morning line. While she has run the fastest speed figures, she’s totally unproven at this distance, and seems like a bad bet at such a short price. I’m much more afraid of Khaleesi Kat, who just won in a similar spot earlier this month and absolutely loves the Aqueduct turf course. However, she is a runner that closes from well back in the pack, so she will need some racing luck. I’ll use her, but my top pick is Miss Aja Brown. This filly’s tactical speed should allow her to get the jump on runners such as Khaleesi Kat, and I have no doubt that she will handle the distance. She was recently in pretty good form for Chris Englehart, who isn’t really known for excelling with his turf runners. She has since been claimed by David Duggan, who quietly does a very good job with his turf runners.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6

RACE 9: MADELINE’S HOPE (#8)
Hay Field is obviously a deserving favorite. She proved that her close second two back at long odds was no fluke by backing it up with an even stronger effort last time. A repeat of that performance would make her awfully tough to beat her. Her main rival appears to be Party Spot, who makes her first start for Gary Gullo after three in-the-money finishes at different venues. I’ll use both of these logical contenders, but I think there’s better value to be found elsewhere. The horse that I want to bet is Madeline’s Hope. I know she looks a little slower than the aforementioned two, but she is improving at the right time. She ran better than it seems two back when she was the only horse to close into a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) over a speed-favoring track. Then, last time, I thought she got a mildly uncomfortable trip after breaking from the rail in a large field. She was advancing inside while always in traffic, and then was never fully clear when attempting to rally in the stretch. If she takes another similar step forward, I see no reason why she couldn’t turn the tables on the favorite.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4