PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 7 - 10 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 5 - 9
Race 4:   7 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   10 - 1A - 6 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 10:   1 - 2 - 4 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 5: JOEY THE FISH (#1)

The favorites in this New York-bred maiden event don’t do much for me. I suppose Miss Fashionista (#4) will be a short price just because she took money on debut. She did run like a horse who may have needed experience, but that’s often not a good sign for a Todd Pletcher trainee. He doesn’t have particularly strong statistics with second time starters stretching out, and I’m somewhat against her. Kara Para (#5) is perhaps a little more trustworthy, since she at least ran well on dirt in her second career start. The distance is a bit of a question mark, but she makes enough sense to use. George Weaver has entered a pair of runners in here, of which Sweetest Princess (#6) is likely to be the much shorter price. She has been steadily improving with each start on grass, running particularly well last time when closing wide over a course that was favoring inside paths. However, now she’s switching to dirt as turf season nears its end. I have some doubts about her ability to transfer her form, but she does appear to be the most talented horse in this field. Yet I’m most interested in George Weaver’s other entrant. At first glance, it doesn’t look like Joey the Fish (#1) has done much running, finishing far back each time, and only achieving her best result against maiden claimers. However, she has given indications that more distance might be her friend, the turf race notwithstanding. She finished with good interest in both dirt races after lagging well behind, and actually galloped out in front of the whole field on Sep. 25. George Weaver is 17 for 69 (25%, $2.07 ROI) with maidens going from dirt to turf over the past 5 years. She isn’t catching the toughest group for the level and may finally have landed in a race where her ability to stay on at one pace could be an asset.

WIN: #1 Joey the Fish, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 5,6

RACE 6: RHOMBIQUE (#4)

I imagine that Personal Best (#5) will be a strong favorite in this N1X allowance affair. She doesn’t have any speed figure edge over this field, but she just has the look of a horse that still has upside in a field where we’ve already seen what many of the more experienced options have to offer. She also has Irad Ortiz on her back, which could negatively impact her price. While Personal Best did handle an extended distance in breaking her maiden two back, I wasn’t thrilled with her most recent effort at Keeneland. She got a pretty good trip that day in her first start against winners, yet didn’t produce the necessary kick while beaten by a seemingly inferior foe. She can win, but I don’t need a short price on her. A few horses in this field exit a similar race at this level from Oct. 23. Ensemble (#1) seemingly ran the best race that day behind the winner, as she closed well into a slow pace to be second, earning a career-best 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She seems like a reasonable candidate to improve with added ground, but she was 17-1 last time and will now be much shorter odds here. The horse that I’m most interested in from that Oct. 23 affair is Rhombique (#4). She checked in sixth, but was only 1 1/2 lengths behind Ensemble after getting in tight quarters and having to alter course in upper stretch. I thought she ran exceptionally well two back in a much tougher race at this level. Winner Salimah came back to win a stakes, and Rhombique did well to get up for fourth after a very wide trip. According to Trakus, she covered an astounding 82 more feet than the winner. There are some subtle signs that she is really improving in the second half of this season. I admit it’s hard to bet this rider, but he did work out a perfect trip for her when she broke her maiden, and the price will be more than fair.

WIN: #4 Rhombique, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7: VODKA MARDINI (#3)

I acknowledge that horses like Southern Flag (#4) and American Law (#6) can win this race, but neither one is particularly compelling at a short price. Southern Flag’s recency may give him the slight edge, but I was hoping to see a better effort out of him last time. That was a fairly weak maiden event and he was no match for the winner while regressing on the speed figure scale. American Law does possess more early speed, but he was aided by a favorable track profile in his last race back in April. Danny Gargan does have outstanding statistics off layoffs, but this horse has settled for minor awards too many times for my liking. After the scratch of Smoke and Heat, I think there's one viable alternative to this pair. My top pick is Vodka Mardini (#3), who figures to be a bigger price. This horse was a bit of a disappointment when he was competing as a 2-year-old last year for Steve Asmussen. However, he did show hints of potential on occasion, particularly when he chased the pace behind Mo Donegal on Oct. 21. He’s been off for a long time since then, but now returns for Linda while going out as a new gelding. The slight turnback to a mile should suit him, and Rice is a solid 8 for 28 (29%, $2.18 ROI) off layoffs of 200 days or greater in dirt routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #3 Vodka Mardini, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: RUNNINGWSCISSORS (#10)

Many of the major contenders in this race exit a similar event at this level on Oct. 22, won by today’s morning line favorite Ghost Giant (#1A). He got a perfect trip to win that day, sitting off a contested early pace before overhauling the leaders to win decisively. Linda Rice is bringing back at the same level, and he again finds himself in the same race as the three horses who set up that last pace to come apart for him. He’s clearly the one to beat, but this time his form is exposed, now that it’s quite apparent that he’s still a proficient sprinter. The only other horse I’d want out of that Oct. 22 race is Phantom Smoke (#6), who did well to hang on for second after making the first move into that quick pace. He generally needs some racing luck to win at this level, but it was nice to see him bounce back after a poor effort two back. There are a couple of other runners coming out of different races who merit consideration. The one who figures to take money is Frank’s Art (#3), who is stepping up to this N2X level for the first time. He obviously is more of a sprinter, after appreciating the turnback in distance last time. However, he was beating a much weaker field and would have to improve. My top pick is Runningwscissors (#10). This horse was pretty fortunate when he won at this level at Belmont back on June 26. He was a massive overlay at 21-1 that day after running deceptively well in his turf debut, but he still benefited from a strong pace up front. Yet, since then his form has once again been obscured by running in the wrong spots. He’s been in over his head against open company in all of his recent turf starts, though he actually showed some signs of life last time when displaying improved early speed before fading. A repeat of that performance makes him a contender here, and now he’s finally dropping into a realistic spot.

WIN: #10 Runningwscissors, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1A,6