by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   10 - 6 - 2 - 11
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   11 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 10 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   12 - 5 - 9 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 12 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   9 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 10:   8 - 3 - 10 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: EXOTIC WEST (#11)
Following the scratch of Dreamful, Exotic West figures to vie for favoritism. She has yet to win on the turf, but she’s run well in all three of her starts on this surface. She just missed in her turf debut at Saratoga in September, and then twice failed to get ideal trips at Belmont. She lost position at a critical point in the race two back before encountering more traffic in the stretch. And last time Mike Luzzi didn’t have too many better options, but this filly was still hung 3-wide all the way. I like this rider switch to Javier Castellano, who figures to be aggressive once again. She can be forwardly placed early in this race and I think that would be to her benefit. I believe she’s the most talented runner in this field, so she just needs to work out a trip. The one other horse that I want to highlight at a bigger price is Funwhileitlasted. She hasn’t run too well in her last couple of starts, but she showed some promise over the summer, just missing in a pair of stakes events. Now she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Brittany Russell and is another one who can attain forward early position. I would also use runners like Princess Nina and Lido Key. The former ran well at this level in Kentucky last time, and the latter was compromised by a slow pace in her recent start for this condition.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,4,10
Trifecta: 11 with 3,12 with 2,3,4,9,10
 

RACE 5: TUSCAN QUEEN (#5)
O’Gotten Girl’s early speed probably makes her the one to beat in this 6-furlong allowance. She just missed at this level last time when run down by a superior rival but she nevertheless ran well in defeat. She carved out some honest fractions and did well to hold onto the place position. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners or near the lead and she figures be controlling the fractions up front. I don’t think she has as much upside as some others in here, but she still makes plenty of sense. Messidor is an intriguing entrant in this race. I know her connections had wanted to run her longer last week, but that allowance race got rained off the turf. So instead they’re going to get in this turf sprint run before the season ends in New York. She has been best in each of her last two starts going a mile at Belmont, as she was compromised by a slow pace two back and then encountered significant traffic last time. That said, I don’t love the turnback for her, and her lack of early speed could be a real problem in this paceless affair. I want to go in a different direction with Tuscan Queen. Jose Ortiz made a tactical error last time when he reined her in immediately out of the starting gate, basically deciding to ride her as a closer before even seeing out the pace developed. She lost valuable early position and then was forced to cover more ground than anyone when making a wide rally on the turn. She flattened out late, but she was just never in a position to win. Her prior form is obviously good enough to make her a player here. She was compromised by a wide trip against a bias two back, and she hung with some good fillies in the Galway at Saratoga prior to that. I think her best effort can beat O’Gotten Girl, and she has the tactical speed to stay closer – if they use it.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,7,8,10
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,6,8,10
 

RACE 6: BOLD JOURNEY (#12)
The reason to play this race is the presence of Devil Or Angel, who figures to take money based on his strong turf form. Obviously David Donk sees something that isn’t apparent about this colt, as he entered him as an MTO in a race last week, and now puts him in a scheduled dirt race. Perhaps he’s trained well on the main track and merits a chance over it. However, he’s going to take money for all the wrong reasons and these types are generally poor bets. His pedigree is geared more towards turf, as his dam has been a proven producer of grass horses. I’m taking a stand against him. I prefer Safalow’s Mission of those with experience. This horse debuted in an auction maiden event last month at Belmont. It wasn’t a particularly fast affair, but he ran well within the context of the race and has a right to move forward in his second start. Yet the most interesting horses may be first time starters. G Munnings has been training well for John Kimmel, and it’s a good sign that he attracts Jose Ortiz for his debut. Munnings is a solid debut sire and this colt looked pretty fast in his Fasig-Tipton workout earlier this year. He’s a major player, but I’m most interested in Bold Journey. This Carlos Martin trainee may ultimately want a bit more ground than this, but he appears to have ability. He only sold for $80k earlier this year, but that was before his best half-sibling Americanrevolution had developed into one of the top 3-year-olds in the country. Obviously Americanrevolution wanted to go longer, and there is also plenty of route pedigree deeper in this family, as his dam is a half-sister to route stakes winner Gouldings Green. That said, Carlos Martin can strike with a first time starter every now and then, and this one has been training forwardly.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,6,9
 

RACE 9: PERJURY TRAP (#3)
A couple of runners in this field exit the Grade 3 Knickerbocker last month at Belmont. L’Imperator was among the favorites that day, but he was extremely disappointing, regressing off his two efforts at Saratoga this summer. Manny Franco worked out a good trip for him, as he was ideally positioned to make a move in upper stretch last time. Yet he just failed to accelerate, fading in the late stages. Now the blinkers come off, but Chad Brown is also dropping him in for a tag, which seems like a red flag for a horse who was once considered graded stakes caliber. Temple ran the better race in the Knickerbocker last time, but he also had a great trip, saving ground much of the way. He’s gotten ideal trips in each of his last two starts, as he was also quite fortunate when he won two back at Belmont. That day he rode the rail all the way over a course that was favoring inside paths. He finished nearly 3 lengths ahead of today’s rival Perjury Trap, but that one was significantly compromised by the bias. Perjury Trap was 3-wide for much of his trip that day and unsurprisingly couldn’t pick up in the stretch. He’s clearly better than that, and we saw his stablemate Value Engineering come out of a similar trip in that race to win his next start with an improved performance. Perjury Trap was visually impressive when he returned from a layoff two back at Ellis Park, and I think he can now build on that effort. He's my top pick, and I believe his main rival is Doswell. This gelding was disappointing in his return from the layoff last time, but he has a right to move forward off that performance. He obviously has the back class to beat this field, and his tactical speed makes him dangerous.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,10
Trifecta: 3 with 4,10 with 2,4,5,10
 

RACE 10: MY SUNNY VALENTINE (#8)
Wicked Happy is tough to endorse as a win candidate given her plethora of minor awards at this level, remaining a maiden after 19 career starts. Yet she’s run some of the best races of anyone in this field, and comes off a good effort last time out. She couldn’t reel in winner Salino, but that rival returned to validate that form beating winners in her next start. She has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here and is likely to be in the mix at the end. It just depends on whether someone else wants it a bit more than she does, which is usually the case. Peacebethejourney could attract some support as she drops out of a maiden special weight. Perhaps the 10 furlongs was just too far for her, but she really shut down in the latter part of that race. I’ve never been her biggest fan and continue to wonder why she’s been so popular at the claim box. I wanted to make a case for the New York-bred Raving. She badly needed the experience in her debut, as she was off slowly and very green at the back of the pace before making some mild late progress. I just wish she had reappeared in a state-bred event. My top pick is My Sunny Valentine. I understand why her connections have run her on dirt in her last couple of starts – they were relatively weak races for the level – but she proved at Saratoga that she’s simply a better turf horse. That Sep. 5 field was better than this one, and she stayed on well to be fourth. I like the fact that Jose Ortiz is taking over for this return to grass, and I just think she makes a lot of sense and could get somewhat overlooked based on her subpar dirt form.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7,10