by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 3 - 10
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 8 - 10 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 10 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 5: BLUEGRASS FLASH (#9)
Sat the Turtle will likely go to post as a heavy favorite once again. He is seeking his second consecutive victory since being claimed by Jorge Navarro at Saratoga. While he got the job done last time, he did not exactly run to his enthusiastic support. He did not get away that alertly and appeared to be struggling on the far turn before he rallied down the center of the track to beat Big Guy Ian. While this horse has earned superior speed figures in two of his last thee starts, both of those efforts came against cheaper company in weaker races than this one. In my opinion, the best alternative to this favorite is Bluegrass Flash. I generally am skeptical of horses that are shipping in from Finger Lakes, but I’m less concerned this time because this gelding has proven himself against legitimate competition in each of his last two starts. While he only finished fifth of 6 runners at Saratoga two back on July 25, he actually outperformed expectations that day. Riff Raff and Mr. Buff are solid allowance horses who run much faster speed figures than any of today’s rivals, and Bluegrass Flash did well to stay in contention until the final eighth of a mile. Then last time he was placed very ambitiously back at his home track. All of the top three finishers in that Leon Reed Memorial have been competitive on the NYRA circuit in the past. While Bluegrass Flash was soundly defeated, he nevertheless ran a speed figure that holds up to scrutiny and makes him a major player in this spot.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,6,7
 

RACE 7: TRUE TIMBER (#2)
Coal Front is an enigma. It’s possible that he may just be faster than this field as he returns from a 13-month layoff. However, this is not a typical move for the Todd Pletcher barn. Over the past five years, Pletcher is just 2 for 14 ($0.87 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in graded stakes on dirt. Furthermore, when you really dig into this runner’s form from last year, there are issues. He rode a golden rail to victory in the Amsterdam, and he benefited from a slow early pace when he took down the Gallant Bob. Those are his two fastest speed figures, so I’m not totally convinced that he’s quite as talented as he seems at first glance. I’ll use him defensively, but I prefer those with recency. No Dozing makes plenty of sense as an alternative, but he doesn’t really excite. He ran pretty well in the Forego, as he got spun wide off the far turn and had to rally down the center of the track. Then last time, he rushed up to chase the pace two wide over a strip that may have been favoring rail runners. However, he broke slowly in those last two starts, and it would be detrimental to his chances if he did so again while breaking from the rail. Therefore, I prefer True Timber. I’ve never been this runner’s biggest supporter, but I cannot deny that Kiaran McLaughlin has him in the best form of his career. He ran a legitimately fast race to defeat Patternrecognition two back at Saratoga, and that one returned to win the Kelso over No Dozing. While True Timber was not as visually impressive last time, he was hindered by having to race two or three wide over a very rail-biased surface. Seven furlongs is his best distance, and I think he’s most likely to capitalize if Coal Front fails to show up.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,6
 

RACE 9: TAKECHARGE MIRELLA (#1)
This race is likely to be reduced by scratches, as 3 of the entrants participated in the off-the-turf Chelsey Flower last weekend. The filly that will go off as a deserving favorite is Brucia La Terra. I’m sure Barclay Tagg had the option of shipping this filly to Kentucky with stablemate Cassies Dreamer to contest the Breeders’ Cup, but he has instead elected to opt for this easier spot. If she repeats her performance in the Frizette, she will be awfully tough for this group to handle. She ran well to break her maiden at Saratoga in surprisingly fast time, and her subsequent Frizette performance proved that it was no fluke. The only knock against her is that she got a great trip last time, but it’s not as if today’s circumstances are unfavorable. Kiaran McLaughlin has entered a pair of recent maiden winners. The one that figures to attract more support is Enliven, but I actually prefer her stablemate Takecharge Mirella. Enliven has earned slightly faster speed figures, but I have some doubts about the overall quality of the race that she exits. A number of fillies that finished behind her returned to run much slower next time out. Furthermore, she’s been overbet in both of her appearances and she hasn’t yet lived up to expectations. Takecharge Mirella ran into the most impressive 2-year-old filly debut winner – at least on dirt – at Saratoga when she finished far behind Feedback in August. While she only won by a desperate nose in her subsequent start, I thought her performance on Sep. 2 was better than it seems. She made the first move into a pace that fell apart, and she carried a clear lead into the final furlong before understandably getting tired. Her TimeformUS Speed Figure of 97 suggests that she doesn’t need to improve that much. Some may be concerned about the distance, but she’s actually bred to relish it, as Take Charge Indy has been a 23 percent dirt route sire during his stud career.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,10
Trifecta: 1 with 6,10 with ALL