PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   9 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 1 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 2: FAMILY BIZ (#5)
The likely favorite in this spot is Thesis because he’s making his first start off the claim for Jason Servis. His overall form for his prior connections does not single him out as the horse to beat in this race, but the reasonable assumption is that he’s going to produce an improved performance for the new barn. Servis has exceptional numbers off the claim and the fact that he’s moving this gelding up in class to the $50,000 level – seemingly above the price tag at which he should be competing – suggests that improvement is expected. I have no reason to take a strong stance against this horse, but I also would want to be wary of accepting too shot a price on a runner who hasn’t yet displayed that he’s necessarily good enough to beat this field. There are four other legitimate contenders in this race – assuming that Northern Haze will scratch. The best price among those may be Family Biz, and I think he’s as likely to win as any of the others. His form tailed off for a long time through the spring and summer months as he was unable to produce the types of efforts that he had put forth during the early portion of the season. However, the two-month break he got between August and October appeared to benefit him, since he returned last time with his best performance in quite some time. The pace of that Oct. 10 race was quite slow, which should have worked against a horse attempting to rally from last. Yet, he made a strong move into contention at the quarter pole and stayed on well for third behind the talented older runner T Loves a Fight. He’s now dropping into a slightly easier spot, he’s run well at Aqueduct before, and this 7-furlong distance appears to be ideal for him.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6

RACE 4: SPEEDY VANESSA (#2)
The $1.2 million yearling Orsay was bet down to 3-5 odds in her debut, partly because she was highly touted, but also because she appeared to be facing a fairly weak field for the level. She stalked a fast pace but came up totally empty late. This fidgety filly now tries turf, and her sire, American Pharoah, does very well with first-time turfers, though her dam, Life at Ten, was strictly a dirt horse – a very good one – and two foals who tried the turf failed to win. One of her main rivals is Lost Ticket, who makes her second start after an encouraging debut late in the Belmont meet. She broke a bit slowly that day, but otherwise had a great trip, stalking inside before peeling out in the stretch. She will be a player here if she merely repeats that effort, and it stands to reason that she can improve even though her trainer has poor statistics with this move. I’m using both, but my top pick is first-time turfer Speedy Vanessa. She was off a bit slowly in her dirt debut at Churchill, but made good progress thereafter, passing much of the field in the stretch. That race didn’t come up very fast, but she certainly has a right to do better with this switch to turf. Like Orsay, she is sired by American Pharoah, who is 8 for 34 (24%) with first-time turfers. This dam has produced 3 turf winners, including turf graded-stakes-placed Rocket Legs and Grade 1 synthetic winner Karlovy Vary. The only knock against her is that Graham Motion has poor numbers with surface switches like this, but at least she’s going to be a square price and I think she has a right to take big step forward here.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with 1,3,4,6,7,8