by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 15 - 14 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 11 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 1A - 3 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 2B - 12 - 4 - 1A
Race 7: 10 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 11 - 6 - 1 - 9
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 10: 2 - 8 - 11 - 13
RACE 8: COLLEGEVILLE GIRL (#11)
The main players in this field are exiting the Maid of the Mist. Surge of Pride was the winner that day, and she returned to validate the speed figure that she earned in that victory when finishing a distant third in the open-company Tempted next time out. She’s obviously a player in this race, but she may have to close from farther back in the pack as she turns back in distance. She worked out a perfect trip to win that stakes two back, and I’m not sure she’ll be so fortunate again. I actually prefer the fillies that finished just behind her in the Maid of the Mist. Elegant Zip is obviously a major player. She’s placed in both of her stakes efforts, and should appreciate the turnback to 6 furlongs. Kept True is just as appealing at a better price, since she was a commanding winner of her debut before stretching out last time. She should work out a favorable stalking trip. I’m using all of these fillies, but my top pick is the returning Collegeville Girl. It’s taken a while for this filly to get back to the races after flipping in the gate prior to the start of the Seeking the Ante at Saratoga. She had been the favorite in that race off the strength of her impressive Saratoga maiden win. I realize that plenty of time has passed since then, but I think she’s going to be a handful here if she runs back to that race. Her 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that debut still stands up very well. Furthermore, while the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, none of Collegeville Girl’s rivals are quite as fast as her early. I think she can run them off their feet.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,9
RACE 9: INDY UNION (#7)
This race matches some familiar faces on the NYRA circuit against horses shipping in from out of town. Blamed may go off as the favorite as she makes her second start of the Bill Mott barn. She had compiled quite a record racing in New Mexico earlier this year, reeling off 5 consecutive victories before going to the sidelines. She made a very favorable impression in her return for the new barn in the Raven Run last time, leading all the way before getting run down by eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Shamrock Rose. If she handles the stretch-out in distance, she has a big chance. However, she’s going to be an awfully short price and she’s yet to establish that she’s significantly faster than her main rivals. A few fillies exit the Remington Park Oaks. Remedy ran the best race of those, but I wonder if she can transfer her form to New York. She is in very good form right now, and the Brad Cox barn is having a fantastic season, but I still it’s advisable to look elsewhere. I want to bet Indy Union. At first glance, she doesn’t appear to be quite as classy as the two aforementioned fillies, but I think she’s improving at the right time. Stamina has always been her greatest asset, and she’s finally putting it to good use. She wasn’t beating the strongest allowance field at Belmont last time, but she did it the right way and earned a respectable speed figure in the process. She lost to today’s rival Alberobello two back, but she was compromised by a speed-biased track that day. I could see some of her rivals getting pretty leg weary in the final sixteenth of this Comely, and I think she’s the one that can outstay them.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,8 with 1,4,6,8