by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 10: 8 - 7 - 4 - 3
RACE 1: IWISHIRISH (#1)
Leah’s Dream is a deserving favorite as she makes her first start off the claim by Robertino Diodoro. If she runs back to her best career efforts, she is
probably going to win this race. However, it’s not as if Diodoro is getting this horse from a trainer that hasn’t been successful on this circuit.
Furthermore, her most recent start resulted in a major disappointment as she finished fifth as the 4-5 favorite. Diodoro had to give her two months
off after that race before running her back. I’ll use her, but I actually prefer this trainer’s other starter, Iwishirish. I know she has to improve slightly
on even her best efforts, but I think she’s getting back in the right kind of spot here. She was steadily getting better as she advanced out of the
maiden ranks, and she just hasn’t had ideal opportunities in her first two starts against winners. She was going a distance that was too far for her two
back, and then last time she was racing for the barn of a trainer that does not win often on this circuit. This is a positive claim for a trainer who gets a
94 Trainer Rating first off the claim.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,8
RACE 3: NEWPORT BREEZE (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should get contested by Finger Lakes shippers Stone Cold Flirt and Indy’s Lady, as well as recent
maiden winner Tayler’s the Boss. Many of the runners in this race are exiting last month’s Maid of the Mist at Belmont, and just about all of them
should appreciate this turnback in distance. While horses like Miss Mystique and Cause We Are Royal should appreciate getting a fast pace to close
into, they merely picked up the pieces as the Maid of the Mist fell apart behind the top two finishers. If I’m going to take a closer in this race, I want
it to be Newport Breeze, who was taken out of her preferred running style to contest the pace going a mile last time, and deserves credit for hanging
on for fourth while holding off the closers. If this filly runs back to her effort two back in the Joseph A. Gimma, she’ll be tough for this field to beat.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 4: RAPT (#7)
I suppose Business Expense is the horse to beat off the strength of his maiden win at Saratoga. However, this 4-year-old gelding has some questions
to answer. First of all, where has he been for the nearly three months since that victory? It obviously took him some time to get to the races, and it
seems he’s needed some time to recover from his debut. I’d be willing to overlook all that if Chad Brown had better numbers with his second-time-
starting debut winners in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is just 9 for 54 (17 percent, $1.01 ROI) in these situations – a very poor statistic for
this barn. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, due to the presence of speeds like Pioneer Spirit and The J Y. Therefore, I’m
hoping that Rapt can take advantage of the pace scenario and finally get lucky enough to win another race. He’s had some excuses in recent starts.
He probably should have won three back when closing into a slow pace at Saratoga, and then was taken too far off the pace going 10 furlongs at
Belmont. Last time, he ran one of the finest races of his career, making a solid late bid to finish third in the Mohawk behind the talented duo of Black
Tide and Offering Plan. I believe that a repeat of that effort will be good enough to beat this field.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4,8 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 8: DALARNA (#6)
The class of this field is Secretary At War, who has kept solid company against some of the best runners in this division, including Bricks and Mortar
and Yoshida. Those foes don’t show up in this spot, so this listed stakes race might just be his for the taking. That said, I don’t want to give him too
much credit for his fifth-place finish against those aforementioned runners last time, since he was allowed to set a very slow pace. This time he
figures to get more early pressure, and there are some interesting late runners that are improving at the right time. The horse that I want to bet is
Dalarna. I know that last time was the time you really wanted to have him as he successfully made his stakes debut at 19-1. However, I think there
are reasons to believe he will continue his ascent in this spot. Trainer Kelly Rubley does very well with last-out winners on the turf. Over the past five
years, she is 9 for 37 (24 percent, $3.95 ROI) in such situations. Furthermore, Dalarna has a tendency to pull himself up when he makes the lead in
his races, and I think that’s what happened last time. He made such a quick rush to the lead at the eighth pole, and the final margin was only so close
because he lost focus in the closing stages. If Nik Juarez times his move better today, I think he’ll be difficult for this field to hold off.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,5,7,8
RACE 9: RUN AND GO (#1)
Actress is obviously the horse to beat as she drops out of two straight efforts against Grade 1 company. She ran reasonably well in both of those races, finishing behind the likes of Elate and It Tiz Well. One thing that gives her a clear edge in this race is her established ability to handled nine furlongs on the dirt. The farther they travel, the more effective she seems to be. For that reason alone, she deserves respect in this spot. However, she is a bit of a plodder, and is therefore somewhat dependent on the early pace. The likely early leader is Miss Sky Warrior, who didn’t actually run that badly in her return at Belmont last month. She was setting a fast pace and had a right to get tired in the late stages while beaten by some seasoned older rivals. That said, she needs to prove that she’s taken a step forward here, as others are now running faster speed figures. I’ll use her, but I’m not thrilled with either of these favorites at short prices. For that reason, I’m taking a shot against them with Run and Go. I just think it’s very odd that Todd Pletcher is even running her in this spot. Her last race was terrible, and you would have thought she’d be far more likely to show up in claiming race rather than a graded stakes following that kind of effort. Yet, here she is, and there are actually some things to like. She’s certainly bred to go this far as a daughter of Union Rags out of a dam that has produced a number of route winners. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher has fantastic numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 28 for 80 (35 percent, $3.20 ROI) with non-maidens stretching out to a route on dirt for the first time. There is not that much speed in this race, and Luis Saez figures to hustle her out of this inside post position into a stalking position behind Miss Sky Warrior. At a price around her morning line 12-1, I’ll take a chance on her.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,8,9