PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 6 - 1A
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 9 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 7 - 3 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: RICELLE (#3)

This race gave me a headache, as I found it very difficult to separate the four likely short prices. I tried to make that pretty clear in my morning line, as I uncharacteristically pegged them all between 5-2 and 3-1. Mostly Harmless (#2) comes in with the best overall form, but she appears to be a little better on turf, and she’s also unproven going this far. Her older half-sister Candlestick Maker (#5) would be tough to beat if she transferred her turf form to dirt, but I’m dubious that this one-paced plodder will take to dirt. Goodmorning Angel (#6) perhaps has the most upside as she races for a tag for the first time on dirt, but it’s not as if she’s done much running in any of her races. I actually like Tekila (#4) best of the favorites, as she got shuffled back on the turn last time. Yet she’s had her fair share of chances and won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz aboard. Therefore, I want to get a little more creative. Ricelle (#3) is not the kind of horse that I typically pick, but this is a decidedly subpar race, and she really doesn’t look that much worse than anyone else. She actually showed some affinity for dirt in her last race over this surface back in January 2021. That was a much better field, and she stayed on mildly after getting shuffled back on the turn. She’s only run on turf since returning this year, but her pedigree says that she’s supposed to better on dirt, especially going longer. Her last couple of efforts may look pretty bad, but she was wide against a strong rail bias two back, and last time she was completely eliminated at the start. She’s better than she appears and will be a price.

WIN: #3 Ricelle, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 3: SPIKED (#5)

I don’t want to default to Cupid’s Heart (#4) at what figures to be a very short price. She has been visually impressive in her last couple of victories, but she was facing weaker fields on both occasions. That was especially true last time when she really wasn’t facing much competition and was allowed to set a slow pace before sprinting away through the stretch. Horses who finished directly behind her have since come back to regress, casting some doubt on that career-best speed figure. I’m not convinced that more distance helps her, and she’s facing a couple of rivals who have shown quality. One of those is Wasp (#2), who has hit the board in all of her starts at this N1X level. I thought she put in a game effort to get up for second in the slop two back, and last time she had little chance to close in a race dominated up front by a heavy favorite. I would use her, but my top pick is Spiked (#5). She didn’t run as well as Wasp in that Oct. 2 race in the slop, but perhaps she just didn’t handle the wet track. She had been in good form prior to that, running well behind the talented Fingal’s Cave two back at Saratoga. John Terranova adds blinkers this time, and she’s drawn well outside of the other pace players. It’s hard to completely trust her, but her likely price in comparison to the favorite makes her the right bet here.

WIN: #5 Spiked, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 5: STAGE LEFT (#3)

My primary opinion in this race is that I want no part of Outlaw Kid (#8). He’s perhaps the best horse in this race, but he’s a turf horse. It would seem that his connections are just taking a shot on dirt since there are no more turf options in New York this year, in light of the announcement that only stakes will be carded on turf through this weekend, which marks the end of turf season. His pedigree is turf-oriented, and he’ll beat me at a short price. Looking beyond him, the other wild card in this field is In Dreams (#4) as he returns from a lengthy layoff in his first start off a trainer switch to Horacio De Paz. This barn sent out another runner for this owner off the same switch last week, and that horse ran decently to be fourth as the favorite. In Dreams showed ability last winter, but he’s a speed type in a race that appears to feature some other pace players, so he could be in for a taxing trip. My top pick is Stage Left (#3). I’m giving this horse one more chance, with the idea that he can work out a better trip this time. He put in a better effort than it appears two back when he was glued to a dead rail on the main track. Then last time he was just beaten by some better rivals in a tougher race at this level. He also got bumped very hard at the half-mile pole before racing wide on the turn. I’m hoping Eric Cancel can work out a smoother trip from off the pace this time.

WIN: #3 Stage Left, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7: SKRATCH KAT (#3)

Two fillies who competed in the Kentucky Oaks this year figure to vie for favoritism in this Comely at the end of each of their 3-year-old seasons. Kathleen O. (#4) went off as one of the favorites in the Oaks, and was slightly disappointing, checking in fifth. She just couldn’t produce the same late kick we had seen in her Florida preps. That said, she only finished 2 lengths behind runner-up Nest and would be dangerous here if she can build upon that performance. The major drawback is her running style, as she wants to drop back early and make one run, which hasn’t been the ideal trip over this Aqueduct track. Nostalgic (#5) didn’t run nearly as well in the Oaks, and put forth a series of lackluster efforts through the summer. However, she seemed to wake up in her return to Aqueduct last time, nearly pulling off an upset against older foes in the Turnback the Alarm. A repeat of that performance makes her dangerous here, but this is arguably a tougher field. There isn’t that much pace signed on, but I wasn’t thrilled with either potential pacesetter, and wanted to avoid Tizzy in the Sky (#8), who could take money off wins against weaker competition. A few contenders in this race exit the Seneca Overnight from September at Churchill. Sixtythreecaliber (#2) pulled off the upset that day and appears to be an improving filly for Tom Amoss. However, I’m most interested in that race’s third-place finisher Skratch Kat (#3). I would make the argument that she was best in the Seneca Overnight, as the pace failed to develop and she was finishing best of all late. I thought she put in a deceptively strong performance in the Alabama, closing into a moderate pace to be fourth behind Nest. And most recently she raced a bit greenly through the short stretch at Keeneland. I think she’s going to love stretching out to 9 furlongs and Manny Franco strikes me as a good fit for a filly who needs some encouragement to finish off her races.

WIN: #3 Skratch Kat, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: NOTHING BETTER (#5)

I suppose Dancing Buck (#12) is the one to beat in this Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship off his victory last time in the Belmont Turf Sprint. However, he had everything go his way that day. Speed scratched out prior to the race, his primary remaining pace rival blew the start, and he was able to get away with a moderate pace over his preferred rain-softened turf course. The scenario looks different this time with more speed signed on and less rain in the forecast. He’s also stuck in the far outside post position. I actually think Gear Jockey (#9) is more likely to win. It might appear that he’s off form, going winless so far this season. However, he’s run well with some excuses on a few occasions. He had no chance after a wide trip in the Jaipur two back, but he rebounded well last time when chasing Golden Pal before fading in the Woodford. Six furlongs is a better distance for him. I could also give another chance to Yes and Yes (#10), who was compromised by a stumbling start behind Dancing Buck last time. It’s been a few starts since he’s been able to use his preferred aggressive tactics, but he’s in better form than it appears and could be dangerous here if he breaks cleanly. My top pick is another rival with speed. Nothing Better (#5) is in the best form of his career right now. Like last year, when he came to hand in the latter half of last season, he appears ready to deliver another top effort returning to the NYRA circuit. He’s developed into a consistent performer as a 5-year-old, running well under a variety of circumstances. He held his own in the Red Bank two back after chasing a quick pace going two turns, and last time he always looked like a winner wiring a field at Laurel. There is some other speed in here, but he may be the quickest of them all early. He figures to fly under the radar, but has the credentials to compete at this level.

WIN: #5 Nothing Better, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 9,10

RACE 9: LOOKIN GRAND (#10)

This maiden claiming finale was a process of elimination for me. None of the short prices are particularly appealing. I suppose some might view Tiger Town Boy (#9) as the horse to beat, but I’m a bit bothered by this drop in class. They paid a hefty sum for this well-bred horse, and the connections are just giving up after two races, before even trying a son of Curlin at a route distance. Danny Gargan has good numbers with this move, but I’m skeptical. North Pole (#3) andStrong Light (#7) faced off in a maiden claimer at Saratoga in which both were defeated by a Wesley Ward trainee who didn’t look particularly formidable on the way in. The former has had too many chances for my liking, and the latter is a plodder who almost always leaves himself with too much ground to make up. I want to look for a new face. Lookin Grand (#10) is a horse that intrigues me getting on dirt for the first time. It’s a little curious that he was targeted at turf races from the start of his career, because his pedigree actually leans more towards dirt. Yet perhaps his connections just wanted to run him longer, and he ran well enough initially to stick with turf for a while. He has to improve on his recent form, but he got a wide trip last time against a tougher field. He worked well on dirt recently, and Charlton Baker is 11 for 59 (19%, $2.45 ROI) with 3-year-old and up runners going turf to dirt over 5 years.

WIN: #10 Lookin Grand, at 5-1 or greater