PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 11 - 4 - 9
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 15 - 16 - 9
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   6 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 10:   9 - 1 - 4 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 5: DOUBLEPOUR (#2)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader, depicting Big Brown Shoes in front. Perhaps that runner will make the lead, but I have to imagine that Lookin for Trouble will also be ridden aggressively from the outside. He regained his form last time out at Belmont and flashed that ample early zip before getting reeled in at the end. I think he has a big chance to take them a long way once again, and trust him more than Big Brown Shoes, who benefited from a track bias last time. I hope those two hook up, because I’m most interested in some late runners. Our Man Mike has a right to do better on the turnback in distance. I don’t think he wanted 9 furlongs at Saratoga, and he made a middle move last time before flattening out. He sprinted effectively early in his career and is arguably coming out of tougher races than some others. Seven Lilies is the horse that some may want out of that Oct. 28 race at this level, where he closed mildly for third. The Rob Atras barn has really picked up some steam since the start of this Aqueduct meet, so perhaps we’ll see an improved effort from this runner. Yet the one that I want from that heat is Doublepour. There appeared to be a bit of a rail bias on Oct. 28, and Doublepour was always outside and far off a slow early pace. He did well to make up ground while racing wide and was absolutely flying through the stretch in a race that didn’t play to closers. He’s really improved in his last couple of starts for this barn and retains the services of Javier Castellano.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6,7

RACE 9: SHALIMAR GARDENS (#3)
With Army Wife scratching to run in Thursday's Falls City, Played Hard and Crazy Beautiful figure to vie for favoritism. The two of them battled in the Seneca in October at Churchill Downs, as they each rebounded from poor showings behind Army Wife in the Alabama. Played Hard had everything her own way on the front end last time, and Crazy Beautiful did well to run her down. They both have the credentials to win this race, but I'm not thrilled with either one as the favorite. Shalimar Gardens is among the most lightly raced fillies in this field, but she possesses plenty of talent. She relished the opportunity to go a mile two back, breaking her maiden in stylish fashion with Jose Ortiz never moving a muscle. She got thrown into the deep end of the pool last time, tackling Grade 2 foes in the Raven Run. While she finished fourth, she actually gained in stature coming out of that race. She was never in a good tactical position that day, but she stayed on gamely through the stretch at 36-1. Now she stretches back out, and I like her going a bit longer. Horacio DePaz is 5 for 19 (26%, $4.64 ROI) with non-maidens going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. I think she’s the one with the upside to give the favorite a scare.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 4,5 with 4,5,7,8

RACE 10: BOURBON MISSION (#9)
It’s hard to get too enthusiastic about any of the options in this wide open claimer to end the card. I pegged Montauk Daddy as the slight morning line favorite for the dangerous Rob Atras barn. Yet I wouldn’t want to take this horse at a short price. I’ve never liked him going a step beyond 5 1/2 furlongs, and his recent form leaves a lot to be desired. He wasn’t even able to make the lead two back at Monmouth, and last time he threw in the towel as the 4-5 favorite against weaker at Laurel. Furthermore, he could face some serious early pace pressure from Stanhope in this spot, and that rival is faster than Montauk Daddy if Jose Lezcano elects to use his speed. I prefer some others. While I generally am not a fan of turnbacks on the turf, Smile Bryan is a candidate to handle the shorter distance in this spot. He’s successfully sprinted in the past, including on the grass, and he showed up with a solid effort first off the claim for Mike Miceli last time. I don’t love him, but he’s one of the few who seemed like a reasonably strong candidate to show up with a solid effort here. My top pick is Bourbon Mission. It might look like he’s off form at first glance, but I think it’s worth taking apart his form. He’s only gotten on turf twice since returning from a layoff earlier this year, and neither effort is as bad as it seems. He was in over his head both times, facing a very tough $32k claiming field at Saratoga two back before trying classier N1X allowance foes last time. I like him cutting back to 6 furlongs, and he has the ability to close from off the pace in a race that could feature a quick early tempo. Anything around his 6-1 morning line is a fair price in a race where I wouldn’t want to settle for short odds on anyone.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,5