by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 2: 9 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 11 - 4 - 9 - 3
Race 6: 10 - 1 - 5 - 11
Race 7: 3 - 10 - 9 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 10: 7 - 1 - 10 - 8
RACE 1: AM IMPAZIBLE (#6)
Doll, the likely favorite, disappointed at 3-5 odds last time, getting cooked in an early duel before fading late. She has to stretch out an extra half-furlong here and that could work against her, as she was unable to see out this distance in her second start in May. This fast-breaking filly should be in front once again here and she may show a bit more staying power now in her second start off the layoff. Though, how short of a price do you really want to take on a filly who has already burned quite a bit of money? One of her main rivals, Anydayisherday, has outrun her odds in both appearances since returning from the layoff this fall. She got the better of Doll last time, outdueling her in deep stretch before they both got overhauled by the late-running winner. She needs to run a little faster if she’s to break through at the level this time, but she figures to be a better price than her main rival once again. I want a different horse out of that race. My top pick is second-time starter Am Impazible. Little went right for this filly in her debut four weeks ago. She broke with the field, but was steadily shuffled back down the backstretch as she appeared to react badly to the kickback. She eventually found herself back in last rounding the turn while racing very greenly. All things considered, she actually did well to come back to get fourth after her eventful trip, running on best of all in the stretch. Kelly Breen typically sends live runners to NYRA and this one figures to be more professional with blinkers added second time out.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 2,3,4,5,7
RACE 7: IMAGINAR (#3)
The two runners drawn towards the outside are going to attract plenty of attention. Bustin Hoffman makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez after showing improvement in his final start for the Gary Gullo barn last time. He may improve off the claim, but he also got a pretty favorable set of circumstances last time while facing a significantly weaker field. He had shown potential in the past, but I’m skeptical as to how much the new barn rates to improve him off that recent performance. Thesis makes his second start off the claim for Jason Servis after not improving at all in his first start for this barn just 7 days ago. He had no major excuse to lose that conditioned claiming race after stalking a very slow pace, and overall he’s just a bit cheaper than some of his rivals as he steps back up into allowance company, albeit against New York-breds. I’m using both, but I wouldn’t want to lean too heavily on either one. Seven Is Heaven makes some sense in his first start against winners, but you wanted to have him last time when he won at 6-1. He’s going to be a comparable price today despite facing a tougher field. I’m very intrigued by Finger Lakes shipper Imaginar. It’s typically wise to be somewhat skeptical of these runners as they attempt to transfer their form to the NYRA circuit, but as far as I can make out, this runner’s form stands up to scrutiny. For whatever reason, he’s been targeted at route races for the majority of his career. He’s raced in dirt sprints just 6 times, and he’s won 4 of those attempts with a second-place finish. That aside, he’s clearly turned into a different horse for the Keith Harris barn since switching trainers earlier this year. This trainer only has a few horses, but he’s gotten two of the major runners in his stable to improve significantly off barn switches this year. Imaginar comes in on a 3-race winning streak and the speed figures for his victories look totally legitimate. He absolutely trounced a decent field two back, earning a formidable 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and the fourth and fifth place finishers from that race have both returned to win with improved figures out of that spot. He regressed a bit last time, coming back on just 10 days’ rest, but he also was ridden very conservatively. We’ll see how much money he takes, but I’d be hesitant to just dismiss this horse on the assumption that he won’t maintain his form.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,9,10
RACE 8: GOLD STANDARD (#2)
Arrifana is likely to be the favorite in this spot as she tries to stay undefeated in her fifth career start. She’s progressed through all of her allowance conditions as her connections have resisted the temptation to get overly ambitious up until this point. While she has clearly earned her spot in this stakes, it remains to be seen if she’ll be at her best going this nine-furlong distance. She was very impressive winning going seven-eighths at Saratoga in August and she followed that up with an equally dazzling one-turn allowance win at Laurel. However, she had to work harder than expected to win her two-turn debut last time, leaving some concerns about her ability to go farther, as she’s asked to do today. I prefer her main rival Gold Standard, who is a half-length short of being undefeated on the dirt. Like Arrifana, she easily advanced through her allowance conditions and only stepped up to stakes company last time. She was up to the challenge, and just found herself in a tough spot, facing the proven graded stakes performer Lady Apple. It was an oddly run race in which all four rivals were in contention throughout. Gold Standard appeared to be in trouble at the head of the lane when Lady Apple collared her, but she gamely battled back through the lane, nearly getting back on even terms at the finish. She’s bred to go this far, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she’ll be in front in a situation favoring the leader. I’ll also use Bellera, who won going this distance at Saratoga and never had a chance when losing her rider at the start of the Turnback the Alarm last time.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5,7
RACE 9: KADAR (#6)
Halladay is clearly the horse to beat in this Gio Ponti Stakes, even as he stretches out in distance. While he’s done the most damage around one turn at Belmont, he has handled two turns in his couple of attempts. He most recently finished a close third in the English Channel, arguably facing a tougher field than he’s meeting here. The pace of that race was on the quick side and he did well to nearly hang on in a race that otherwise went to closers. While there is other speed in this race, the other front-runners are not of the quality of this Pletcher colt. I’m hardly against him, but I also don’t want to accept a short price on this horse in a race where I think he has at least one serious rival to deal with. I’m very interested in Kadar as he turns back in distance and drops in class. Mike Maker and the connections got very ambitious with this son of Scat Daddy upon his arrival in this country. After a strong showing against allowance company at Saratoga, they immediately targeted some of the most prestigious races for 3-yearold turf horses during the summer. While he didn’t run particularly well in the Saratoga Derby Invitational, he also never had a chance in a race that was dominated on the front end by A Thread of Blue. Then last time, they asked him to stretch out to 1 1/2 miles in the Jockey Club Derby and none of the Americans were particularly well equipped to handle that challenge as the race was dominated by European invaders. This colt did show quality early on and I think we’re going to see a much better effort now that he’s turning back to 1 1/16 miles and arguably facing the softest field that he’s met since arriving in this country. I’d also throw in the Mark Casse-trained Proliferate, who didn’t get the best trip in the Commonwealth Turf last time, and Maker’s other runner, Temple, who seems to be improving since arriving in his barn.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,8
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,4,8