PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 8 - 10 - 9
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   10 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 6:   4 - 10 - 5 - 11
Race 7:   8 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 1/1A - 3
Race 9:   6 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   12 - 1 - 3 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5

Big Beach Christine (#2) and Clover Street (#4) took all the money when they met at this level last time, and both were mildly disappointing. Big Bean Christine ran the better race, but I think she’s confirmed at this point that she’s better on a wet track, and it figures to be fast on Friday. Clover Street was uncharacteristically dull coming off the layoff. Perhaps she needed the race, but her lack of speed is still a concern in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. I want horses who I think can be ahead of them in the early stages. Maggie T (#7) is getting back into the right kind of spot after experimenting with turf and route distances earlier this year. She ran quite well in her first two starts off the claim for Linda Rice, and now she’s catching a reasonably soft field for the level as she returns for this dangerous barn. My top pick Dashing Della (#5) can also be forward, and figures to be a much more enticing price. She’s been showing speed at route distances recently, but I’m encouraged by her placement on the Pace Projector, indicating that she can still be forward in this spot. I do believe she will benefit from this turnback in distance, since she’s been traveling well to the quarter pole before tiring in each of her last few starts. She was also racing outside a foe against a rail bias last time. She seems to be in deceptively strong form for Marcelo Arenas, and is now finding a better spot.

Fair Value:
#5 DASHING DELLA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

I’m against most of the favorites in this first division of two state-bred maiden special weight events for 2-year-olds.Instamatic (#12) figures to take money once again after being well supported by the bettors in his first two starts sprinting. Yet I don’t want to take a horse like this, who was supposed to excel in those races and now stretches out at a short price. Frozen Four (#10) and Charging Fast (#11) also will attract some support for popular connections despite finishing off the board in a Sep. 17 race at this level. Charging Fast was a little green, though I still would have liked to see more finish out of him. Frozen Four is a little more interesting, since he was held up in behind runners for a long time. He just failed to produce a kick once he finally found clear sailing, but perhaps altering course sapped his energy. That said, I want to try a bigger price. Dunedin Causeway (#4) drew a better post position than almost all of the main contenders, and he figures to get somewhat overlooked due to his low-profile connections. He ran better than both aforementioned runners exiting that Sep. 17 turf maiden, since he was wide on the turns and never quit, just barely missing third. The fact that he ran well on dirt last time just confirms that he’s progressing for these connections, and it’s especially encouraging that he showed improved tactical speed in that race.

Fair Value:
#4 DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

This Discovery field figures to scratch down to five after Drake’s Passage competed in the Empire Classic last week. That is likely to make Crupi (#2) a strong favorite. This former underachiever seemed to figure things out over the summer, earning an overdue maiden victory at Monmouth before beating winners at Saratoga. That allowance win did come in an off the turf race, but he earned a strong 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort. He subsequently validated that sudden improvement in the Pennsylvania Derby. Taken well back in the early stages, he was making a strong move into contention in mid-stretch, at which point he encountered traffic while attempting to split horses. That trouble probably cost him third in that Grade 1 event, and I would imagine he’s going to be well supported here on the back of that effort. However, the big flaw with Crupi is his lack of early speed, and there isn’t much pace in this Discovery with such a small field signed on. Army Times (#1) is the most likely leader from the rail, but he’s a one-figure horse, having run his only competitive race against allowance company two back at Monmouth. His Smarty Jones was disappointing, and I’m not sure he’s a horse who gets better with added distance. My top pick is a runner who figures to be stalking that foe. Tabeguache (#6) has been slow to come around for Brad Cox. He didn’t show much in his first couple of starts for this barn at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but his July 19 victory was a big step in the right direction. He won that race much easier than the margin would suggest, and it set him up for another step forward in the St. Louis Derby last time. He got a good trip tracking the pace, and looked like he was going to settle for second behind stablemate Slip Mahoney before switching leads and finding another gear late. He seems like a the type of horse who should relish 9 furlongs, and I like this outside draw for him.

Fair Value:
#6 TABEGUACHE, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 10

There are a few runners with turf experience who seem legitimate in this second division of NY-bred maiden races on the card. The leading contender appears to be Ez Roll (#1), who gamely chased home impressive winner B D Saints when he finally got on turf last time. This Tom Morley trainee never had the opportunity to save any ground, but was still moving best of the rest through the lane. Now he adds blinkers, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him display better tactical speed from this rail draw. If he continues progressing, he will be tough to beat. Yet some others with turf experience have upside, including Vin Santo (#3). He finished a bit farther back in that Sep. 17 affair, but he was also very wide every step of the way. He had run well against a tougher open company field on debut, but was very green on that occasion, lugging in badly in the stretch. It does appear that there’s some talent here, and he’s finally drawn a better post position. My top pick was done no favors by the draw, but I think he has the speed to overcome it. Officer Derick (#12) figures to get sent forward from the outside post, since he’s shown speed sprinting on dirt. This will be his first turf start, and I think he’s going to appreciate the switch. While it’s not an overwhelming turf pedigree, there are ample influences. The dam was 2-time turf winner, and sire Mo Town has had some moderate success with turf progeny, siring stakes winner Mo Stash. I’ve been waiting for this horse to get on grass since Saratoga, since he physically strikes me as a turf horse based on his movement. Tom Albertrani is also a trainer who tends to race his horses into fitness, so it’s reasonable to expect further progression following an improved effort last time.

Fair Value:
#12 OFFICER DERICK, at 5-1 or greater