by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 1A - 4
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   12 - 3 - 6 - 10
Race 4:   5 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 10 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 11 - 10

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: MONTELEONE (#3)
Despite drawing just five betting interests after the scratch of McErin, this is still a highly competitive starter allowance race with a slew of intriguing contenders. Missle Bomb is a little cheaper than most of his rivals, but he’s earned a long string of competitive speed figures and must be respected in his first start off the claim by John Toscano, who is having a strong meet. I also think you need to use Wegotoldyougotsold, who made a splash for Mike Maker at Keeneland, winning two 3-year-old claiming events in wire-to-wire fashion. Those speed figures make him one of the major players, but I want to see him translate that form to New York as he switches into Bruce Levine’s barn. Both halves of the Robertino Diodoro entry have some appeal, but I would especially want to include Strong Side, who didn't have the easiest trip last time and finished up decently. I’m using all of these horses in some capacity, but the one that I find to be most enticing is longshot Monteleone. At first glance, he appears to be too slow to make an impact on this race. However, he was running competitive races at this same class level when he was in top form during the spring, and had even defeated Wegotoldyougotsold back in January when both had just turned 3 years old. Things went awry for this gelding over the summer as he failed to get out of the gate alertly. He was claimed in July by Linda Rice, who has fantastic numbers off layoffs of this type. Over the past five years, she is 20 for 74 (27 percent, $2.82 ROI) off breaks of 90 to 180 days in dirt sprints at NYRA. Linda Rice is not the kind of trainer that would be afraid to drop this horse in for a tag if he wasn’t training satisfactorily off the layoff, so I see it as a very good sign that she’s bringing him back in a protected spot.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6
 

RACE 3: TIP AT TAPIT (#12)
I hope that this race can stay on the turf because it drew a fascinating field of 2-year-old fillies. There are several first time starters with intriguing pedigrees, and the one that figures to attract the most attention is Ava Malone, a Stonestreet homebred daughter of Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Dayatthespa who debuts for Chad Brown. Tenacious Jewel, who goes out for Arnaud Delacour, another interesting firster. She is out of the Grade 3 turf winner Bizzy Caroline, a half-sister to champion Lady Eli. While these fillies deserve consideration, I want to focus on those with experience. Take Ten and Blue Jean Kitten have run the best turf races, but they’re going to take money in this spot and I’m not convinced that either one is necessarily superior to their rivals. I’m more interested in those with less obvious merits. I would definitely want to use Style and Grace, who makes her turf debut for Anthony Dutrow. This barn has had a disappointing year, but this filly is supposed to love the switch to grass. She is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Furthest Land, who is one of 5 siblings that have won on turf. I’m also interested in both of Jimmy Toner’s entrants in this race. The one that many people will gravitate towards is Sweet Timing, since she had significant trouble in her debut and now gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz. While she was blocked in the lane, it’s unclear how much run she really had, and she’s definitely going to have to improve on that effort to beat this field. I’m using her, but I actually prefer Toner’s other horse, Tip At Tapit, who figures to be a better price. This filly found herself in arguably the toughest turf maiden event of the entire Saratoga meeting when she finished far behind Newspaperofrecord on debut. Despite the fact that she took some money that day, Tip At Tapit never looked like she had her mind on running, as she raced greenly and was unfocused throughout. She’s bred to have real ability as a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Time and Motion, and I think the addition of blinkers could really help. She’s worked well with the new equipment in the morning and I think she could take a big step forward second time out.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Box: 3,6,12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 4,9,10
 

RACE 7: AIKENETTA (#5)
Face It is going to be the favorite here after trouncing a field of maidens by 10 lengths last time out in her first route attempt. The added ground clearly helped her, and she appears to be figuring the game out, as she showed vastly improved early speed in that win last time. On the other hand, she beat an absolute pitiful field. The margin of victory was totally a product of the competition, since the runner-up returned to run horribly as an odds-on favorite in a slow race on Thursday. Face It probably needs to improve her speed figures to win this race, and I never like picking favorites in that situation. The problem with this field is that all of the alternatives have flaws. Out of Trouble and Best Performance are both better on turf, and the latter may want less ground. Harkness has some competitive speed figures in her past performances, but I’m not convinced that she wants to go this far and she usually settles for minor awards. Therefore, I’m left with Aikenetta as my top selection. I realize that she appears to be a bit cheaper than some of her rivals, but I cannot deny that her two races for Rudy Rodriguez are far and away the best efforts of her career. She made a decisive move off the far turn to win going away on Sept. 14, running a figure that makes her just as fast as Face It. Then last time, she actually ran much better than it appears on the turf behind the talented Competitionofideas. That race was dominated by closers and Aikenetta did well to hold on for second after carving out a legitimate pace. The low-percentage rider should ensure a generous price on this improving filly.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,3
 

RACE 8: FINAL FRONTIER (#5)
In handicapping this race, you first have to decide what you want to do with the runners exiting the second race on Nov. 2. Dirty was a heavy favorite that day and he badly disappointed, crossing the wire last of the 7 runners. Some may criticize the ride, but I thought Gutierrez got him into position at the quarter pole and he just had nothing in the lane. His races from earlier in the summer would obviously make him very tough, but I don’t trust him to get back to that form. I prefer Pagliacci, who finished ahead of him last time with legitimate trouble. This horse was steadied while in tight quarters rounding the far turn and did well to get up for third in the stretch. Pagliacci has been in solid form ever since Bill Mott turned him back to sprinting, and he’s overdue for a win in one of these races. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t think you’re going to get much value on him. There are many New York-breds who are attempting to step up into open company given how few turf opportunities are left in the season, but I think they’re all in a bit tough. Instead, I want to take a shot with Final Frontier, who turns back in distance. This colt was actually successful going 7 furlongs on dirt in his second start, so he may possess the speed to win going shorter on the turf. He ran very well to cross the line in front before justifiably getting disqualified in his turf debut, and then he couldn’t quite last the 1 1/16 miles over yielding ground at Belmont. This Godolphin homebred is a very close relative to Better Lucky – also a daughter of Ghostzapper –on his dam’s side, and she was best at distances ranging from sprints to a mile. I’m generally against turf turnbacks, but this feels like one that could work out, and it’s not as if this colt needs the lead to win.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,10
 

RACE 9: FORMAL START (#3)
La Cat Warrior is the horse to beat off his runner-up effort at the $40,000 level in September, but I could never trust this gelding at a short price. Since returning from a layoff this year, he’s been a vet scratch on four occasions – twice as many times as he’s actually raced. This drop to the bottom level is not a good sign, given his superior form. All Clear is also difficult to endorse off the claim by low-percentage connections, especially since he’s exiting the barn of Danny Gargan. In some ways, the runner that I trust the most is Formal Start. At least he consistently runs fast enough to win races at this level, and he’s done so against superior competition. In fact, the only time that he was dropped in for a tag during the past year, he ran the best race of his life to just lose by a neck at Saratoga. That was undoubtedly a tougher spot than this one, and I applaud his connections for finally placing him at a realistic level. The only concern is that his running style will not make things easy for Manny Franco, since he may have to pass them all. That said, there are far more reasons to take an optimistic view of this horse than not. Runners for low-profile barns such as this often get overlooked when they finally drop in class. In my opinion, this horse should be a clear favorite, and that's unlikely to happen. That's the definition of value.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,10,11