PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 9 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 12 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   6 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 4 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: AVANT (#3)

I want to lean towards experience in this one-mile maiden event for two-year-old fillies. Fireline (#7) could go favored after taking some money when she debuted for Chad Brown last month going 6 1/2 furlongs in the slop. She was outrun early and then couldn’t match strides with her well meant stablemate Good Sam, who really turned on the speed through the stretch. This daughter of Arrogate seems like one who will appreciate added ground, and she’s bred to have ability, out of a graded stakes-winning dam. The drawback is that Chad Brown is just 5 for 31 (16%, $1.37 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years. I prefer the other second time starter in this field. Avant (#3) switches surfaces after making her debut on the turf at Saratoga. She was fairly one-paced that day, never showing any turn of foot after racing 3-wide on the turns. However, she got a pretty conservative ride from Irad Ortiz, never asked for her best at any point in the race. She had trained pretty well on dirt prior to that start, and it seems like she’s continued to train forwardly since then. She’s bred to handle dirt as a daughter of Uncle Mo out of dam who produced dirt stakes winner Sower in addition to other siblings who preferred this surface. Todd Pletcher is a solid 10 for 30 (33%, $1.62 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt routes over the past 5 years. There are some first time starters with interesting pedigrees, including the Into Mischief-sired half-sister to Scat Daddy, Accidental Icon (#5). However, Bill Mott doesn’t do particularly well with first time starters in dirt routes.

WIN: #3 Avant, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7: SPUN SPECIAL (#5)

Likely favorite Sweetlou’sgotaces (#12) should be pretty formidable if she repeats either of her first two performances. She outran her odds to nearly cause a major upset on debut at Saratoga, striking the lead in mid-stretch before getting run down late. Her connections stepped her up into the Grade 3 Matron as a maiden and she ran pretty well, all things considered. She got bumped hard coming out of the gate and was last early before making some late progress to pass half the field. She’s now getting significant class relief as she drops back in against maiden company and should be tough to beat. The alternatives that I would consider are those who don’t yet have turf experience, as none of those who have run on turf appear to be in the same league as the favorite. First time starter Galileo’s Jewel (#7) is pretty interesting. This is hardly her first attempt to launch her career, as she’s been rained off the turf a few times since the beginning of the meet. She was a $714k RNA at Tattersalls last year, and possess an excellent European turf pedigree. She’s by top sire Kingman out of a dam who is a half-sister to three European G1 winners, Alpha Centauri, Alpine Star, and Discoveries. She has reportedly trained well and Tony Dutrow has had some success with firsters recently. My top pick is Spun Special (#5). This filly has run decently on dirt, but I like the surface switch for her. Hard Spun is a solid turf influence and the unraced dam has produced one turf winner, Eve of War. Her second dam Bedanken was a 7-time stakes winner on turf, so there’s definitely pedigree for her to move up on this surface. Leah Gyarmati is 3 for 18 (17%, $3.97 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time over the past 5 years.

WIN: #5 Spun Special, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 7,12

RACE 8: LA VICTORIA (#4)

I suppose either Know It All Audrey (#5) or Mia Bea Star (#1) will be tough for this group to handle if they run back to their efforts at the starter allowance level last Thursday. I’m just a little skeptical that either one will run to that same level as they return on just 8 days’ rest. Know It All Audrey in particularly seems worth fading, as she figures to be a very short price once again. She had the pace in her favor when she got the job done last time and now she’s arguably stepping up against a tougher field. I actually thought Mia Bea Star ran the better race, as she made a strong move coming off the far turn before flattening out late. She handles a mile and has been rounding back into form for Randi Persaud. However, I want to go in a different direction. I’m pretty intrigued by La Victoria (#4) getting back on the dirt. The first couple of starts of her career on the main track were obviously disappointing. However, it is worth noting that she was against a severe rail bias in her only fast track attempt on debut. I thought she actually ran pretty well when she stretched out on dirt in that off the turf race in July 2021, and then they abandoned dirt. She’s subsequently improved in the overall sense, though I’ve never really liked her as a turf horse. She’s obviously trained well on dirt in recent weeks and I think she deserves another chance to prove she can handle this surface.

WIN: #4 La Victoria, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: W W FITZY (#6)

I imagine that First to Act (#3) will attract support in this Turnback the Alarm merely because she finished second to Nest in her most recent start. However, she wasn’t remotely competitive with that standout 3-year-old filly while nevertheless running on well for second. She comes into this race owning some of the fastest speed figures and she obviously handles the distance. I view her as the horse to beat and recognize that she still has upside in just her seventh career start. However, I don’t think she’s so likely to win that I would want to accept a short price in a fairly competitive race. Battle Bling (#7) and Coach (#5) faced off at Laurel last time where the former notched her second victory in a row. However, that was Coach’s first time start since last winter and she gave a solid account of herself. I was somewhat troubled by the way she seemed to disengage on the turn before coming on again in the stretch, but perhaps she wasn’t handling the sloppy track. Both make sense here, but I wanted to go in another direction. W W Fitzy (#6) could be the best price of those I’ve mentioned here and I think she has as strong a chance to win as anyone. She has the right running style for this race, and is drawn well outside of main rival First to Act. This is an interesting trainer switch to Tom Morley, who got longshot Dynadrive to win off a similar switch from Robertino Diodoro for Flying P earlier in the year. I prefer this spot for her to the sprint stakes she was entered in last week. A repeat of the 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last time at Saratoga makes her competitive, and she was flattered by the subsequent victory of the runner-up in that spot.

WIN: #6 W W Fitzy, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 10: CARIBBEAN BREEZE (#7)

Showemyourheels (#8) could go favored here despite disappointing as the favorite in an off-the-turf affair last time. She ran quite well on turf in her career debut at Saratoga two back, and would appear to prefer this surface. However, that was a sprint and now she’s being asked to stretch out in distance. She is bred to got this far on the dam’s side. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.92 ROI) maidens stretching out on turf over the past 5 years. I’m not against her, but I do think a couple of other rivals are interesting at better prices. First time starter Sweetness (#4) merits respect for dangerous connections. Jorge Abreu has an excellent record with his debut runners, and he’s 4 for 9 (44%, $6.88 ROI) with first time starters on turf for owner Lawrence Goichman. This filly is by solid turf sire Oscar Performance and is a half-sister to multiple turf winners, including turf specialist Shawdyshawdyshawdy. My top pick is second time starter Caribbean Breeze (#7). I thought this filly showed some potential on debut, where she raced very greenly. She was climbing on the backstretch after getting outrun early, seeming to react badly to kickback on the dirt. However, she actually stayed on well late, passing half the field in the stretch. Now she switches surfaces for her second start. The dam was best on turf as a racehorse, though she hasn’t yet produced a surface winner, and this filly is a daughter of emerging turf sire Mendelssohn. Brad Cox is 5 for 22 (23%, $3.12 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #7 Caribbean Breeze, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,8