by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 9 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 1 - 10 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 10 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 10 - 1 - 14 - 5
Race 9: 9 - 7 - 2 - 10
RACE 4: KOSCIUSZKO (#6)
Leaky Cup will be tough to beat in this spot if he runs back to his last effort, in which he nearly survived a contested pace while hanging on for third against a strong field at this level. That and his prior dirt start in the slop at Saratoga both make him fast enough to beat a field at this level, and I think he’s deserving of respect. However, he’s a need-the-lead type, and there is another front-runner in this field. Foolish Ghost’s form has been pretty inconsistent, but he’s quick enough to put some serious pressure on Leaky Cup in the early stages. While I’m not expecting an extremely fast pace, the fractions should be honest enough to give the stalkers and mid-pack types a fair chance. My top pick is Kosciuszko. This 3-year-old actually finished a nose ahead of Leaky Cup when they last met on Sept. 25. Kosciuszko did get a favorable trip that day, but he was also making his first start off an extended layoff so he has a right to step forward. Therefore, it was somewhat surprising to see him regress last time. However, he was compromised by a moderate pace that day and the overall performance wasn’t as discouraging as it might seem. I think he can get back on track here and he figures to work out another perfect stalking trip.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 2,3,4
RACE 6: FULL SALUTE (#6)
The two classy runners in this lineup are drawn towards the outside. Life in Shambles has netted over $800,000 in his career, but his form is starting to decline as he nears the end of his 8-year-old season. Jason Servis is getting realistic and dropping him in for some mid-level claiming tags, just trying to find the class level at which he can win these days. He ran fairly well in a similar spot last time and just couldn’t quite hold off the winner going 7 furlongs. This slight turnback should benefit him, though it remains to be seen if he can put solid efforts back to back. The other runner with back class who is likely to attract support is Earned Success. This guy is making his second start for a tag after previously getting offered for $80,000 last October. This once-promising sort just hasn’t really developed for Chad Brown. While he’s arguably more trustworthy than the runner posted to his inside, it’s not as if his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures make him all that formidable here, despite the drop in class. I want to go in a different direction and I think it’s worth looking at the TimeformUS Pace Projector for ideas. It’s predicting that Full Salute will be clearly in front in a situation likely to favors horses on or near the lead. That should make this returning 6-year-old a dangerous gate-to-wire threat. This gelding has plenty of back class and ran some competitive speed figures at this level when in action during 2018. The layoff is a concern, as is the trainer switch, but this barn has sent out a pair of longshots to run surprisingly well in recent weeks. Furthermore, this horse is returning with the claiming tag waived, while showing a recent bullet workout in 46 3/5 seconds from the gate. That drill was the fastest of 127 at the distance, nearly a full second faster than the next-best time of the day. An aggressive rider is named, so this horse looks ready to roll.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 7,8 with 2,4,5,7,8
RACE 7: SHAMROCK KID (#10)
Doups Point was beaten as the 6-5 favorite in that Oct. 13 event, which a few of these exit, and he figures to take money again. This plodding type raced wide throughout and was unable to reel in the leaders going the mile last time. He’s unlikely to get much more pace ahead of him in this spot, and I also feel that he may prefer slightly more distance than this. I won’t argue with anyone who feels that Doups Point is the horse to beat, but keep in mind that he’s been favored in 5 of his last 6 starts and has only achieved a single victory during that stretch. One of his main rivals appears to be the likely speed Danebury. This gelding was able to transfer his improved Finger Lakes form to a NYRA track last time, taking advantage of a favorable pace setup to hang on for second against some of the same rivals he meets here. He relishes the one-turn mile and is drawn well outside of main pace foe Carthon once again. He looks like one of the main threats, the only drawback being that you have to take a shorter price than the 7-1 he was last time. There are a number of contenders at bigger prices to consider, and the one who interests me most is Shamrock Kid. This 4-year-old was one of the most unlucky losers of the summer at Saratoga. He dwelt badly at the break that day and had no business nearly winning the race, especially considering that he was forced to close into a slow pace after that disastrous start. It’s taken him a while to resurface, but now he’s back at the same level, while turning back to a more appropriate distance. He hasn’t achieved the flashy speed figures of some others, but he was in excellent form when last seen. He also might have needed that brief time away after not getting any breaks since his career debut as a 2-year-old.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 10 with 4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,7
RACE 8: BLESSED HALO (#10)
This is a wild race. You could make a case for many runners in this diverse 14-horse line-up. The logical contenders are drawn towards the outside. Fig Jelly may go favored after placing in a pair of stakes at Monmouth over the summer. However, he didn’t have a major excuse when losing his lone NYRA start this year, falling short against what was probably a weaker field than this. And that’s been his issue, as he tends to settle for second rather than fighting for the victory. McErin would be formidable if able to recapture the form he displayed for Jason Servis, but I’m not betting on that prospect. Dirty seems more reliable as the seemingly stronger half of the uncoupled Jeremiah Englehart entry. He’s been keeping strong company in the mid-Atlantic region and was hardly disgraced when attempting to close in the Grade 1 Jaipur earlier in the year. He just has to work out a trip from mid-pack while breaking from the outside post in a race that features a confusing pace scenario. There are other logical players to consider like Kitten’s Cat, but I want to look outside the box for my top selection. Blessed Halo is a curious presence in this race. Brad Cox is not the type of trainer to spot horses too aggressively, so it’s noteworthy that this seemingly cheap runner is even entered in a race of this caliber. At first glance, he seems totally overmatched, but there are some things to like when you dig a bit deeper. Let’s remember that he once was good enough to be competitive at this level. He earned a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when winning a race at this distance in May 2018 and he ran well a few times subsequently without making a return visit to the winner’s circle. He was claimed away from Dave Cannizzo by Brad Cox, a significant switch, but didn't get back to the races until this summer. And I think it would be fair to say that we haven’t yet gotten the chance to see a true effort out of him while in the new barn’s care. He got rained off the turf at Saratoga and then he didn’t get an ideal trip last time. Blessed Halo needs to be forwardly placed to have a chance, and it all went wrong right after the start last time as he was bumped and steadied out of position. However, unlike in his previous starts, he actually didn’t get discouraged and was rallying through the stretch. The old Blessed Halo seemed incapable of passing horses at any point during a race, yet the one we saw last time was finishing with real interest. If he gets a cleaner start from this outside post, he should be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature many true front-runners. He probably needs a career-best effort to win, but given what he hinted at last time and the confidence being displayed now, I don’t think that’s outside the realm of possibility.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,13,14
RACE 9: BELLA ROSE (#9)
I’m not thrilled with any of the horses who figure to be short prices in this race. Days of Spring has run out of chances from me after losing her last couple of starts at the maiden claiming level with no apparent excuses. Roma Delight is slightly more appealing as she drops in for a tag for the first time, though her form is a little inconsistent. Howver, she probably was on the wrong part of the track last time in a race that featured an outside flow, and she may not have to improve much to beat this field. I’ll use her defensively, but my top pick is first time turfer Bella Rose. This filly just seemed like she wanted no part of the dirt in her debut. She raced greenly through the early stages, was getting out when facing kickback on the turn and trudged home last. Bellamy Road is not the strongest turf influence, but the dam was a 5-time turf winner and her only foal to try the turf was a turf sprint winner. The second generation is all European bloodlines. I like that Manny Franco is named to ride and I expect her to move up on this surface. It’s not as if she has to be a future star to do well in this spot.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,7,8,10