PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 9 - 14 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 7 - 11
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 5 - 11
Race 7:   3 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 10 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

This state-bred optional claiming field is very evenly matched, and you can build a case for just bout every runner in the field. Waterville (#7) figures to take money off her victory at the N1X level last time, but she’s a horse I’d be happy to play against in this spot. She’s stepping up out of weaker races, and will get bet based on that recent victory and the fact that Irad Ortiz is taking over the mount. There isn’t much pace signed on here, and I think she could sit a tough trip from this outside post. Collaboration (#6) should find herself on the early lead, if she actually gets out of the gate this time. She caused her own problems when acting up at the start of her last race, forcing her to be apprehended by an assistant starter as the gates opened. The problem is that even her form prior to that non-effort wasn’t very good, so she has to get back on track. Masterof the Tunes (#2) also possesses some tactical speed, and should be more forwardly placed as she stretches back out in distance. She’s been in good form recently, as she had to alter course when attempting to rally two back, and then got stuck wide in a race where she was probably best last time. She just doesn’t win that often, but she’s obviously a contender. My top pick is Stella Mars (#1). She got a good trip for most horses last time, setting a slow pace in a race that lacked any initiative. However, that might not have been the right trip for her, since she’s more of a closer who typically does best with a target. This time she figures to defer to Collaboration early and sit the right kind of trip in the pocket behind that foe. I like the slight cutback to a mile for her, and she’s generally maintained strong form since getting claimed by this barn.

Fair Value:
#1 STELLA MARS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t want Miracle Mike (#2) as the potential favorite in this starter allowance affair. This horse seems to take money every time, possibly due in part to his name, and he really needs everything to go right in order to win. He just lacks any early speed whatsoever, and is often hitting his best stride when it’s too late. There is some potential pace in this race, as horses like Kingfish Stevens (#3) and Harry Hood (#11) figure to show speed. The latter is a little interesting after chasing outside in a merry-go-round affair last time at Saratoga. He showed ability for his prior barn, but he needs a more aggressive ride to be successful here. Jarreau (#7) is the horse that was most severely compromised by the lack of pace in that Sep. 3 affair. He just ran along at the back of the pack and couldn’t make an impact when they sprinted for home. He’s clearly better than that, and can rebound if more pace develops. Sonic Speed (#5) didn’t run particularly well in his last start on this circuit back in September, when he was wide on the turns and could never land a blow. Yet he came back just 5 days later with a vastly improved effort to win at the Meadowlands. A repeat of that performance makes him a legitimate threat here. My top pick is Blame D Rule Maker (#4). This horse was wide every step of the way when he last race on this circuit back in June at Belmont, and he was never beating the ascendant Pioneering Spirit that day anyway. I had liked his maiden victory prior to that, in which he made a relentless run to get up going a mile. He was off for a bit of time during the summer, but returned with a solid effort last time at Monmouth. He was always far back that day, but was hitting his best stride in the late stages, running on well through traffic. I like him getting back out to 9 furlongs, and he drew a good post.

Fair Value:
#4 BLAME D RULE MAKER, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Tom Collins (#1) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his second start on turf. He didn’t show much on debut, but took a big step forward with the switch to grass last time, as his pedigree would suggest. He’s out of a dam who is stakes-placed on turf and he’s a half-brother to turf stakes-placed Passing Out. He got a pretty good trip in that September turf start last time, saving ground early before having to alter course a couple of times in the stretch. I wouldn’t say that cost him the race, since he probably wasn’t beating much-the-best winner Agate Road. Yet he does figure to benefit from that experience and he’s drawn well again here. I’m not as thrilled with some others who have turf experience. Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners. Irad Ortiz is named on Midnight Council (#9), who was never involved as the even-money favorite on debut at Monmouth. Perhaps he needed that start, but he has to run a lot better here with blinkers added. Walley World (#10) got a pretty good trip on debut in the same race Tom Collins exits until it all went wrong in the stretch. He reacted badly to a left-handed crop and veered out dramatically, fouling foes. That said, I’m not sure how much ability either one of these Brown runners possesses. Among the firsters, Message of Hope (#5) and Fred George (#11) both have appealing European pedigrees for this kind of spot. Richard Dutrow doesn’t have the strong resume of Christophe Clement with first time starters on grass, but he can be dangerous with all kinds of runners. I would use them both in any exotic wagers. My top pick is first time turfer Inherent Promise (#3). I’ve been waiting for this expensive colt to get on the turf since his debut, which was rained off the grass at Saratoga. He didn’t take much money that day, and probably needed the start. Constitution is a solid turf influence, getting 14% turf route winners. The dam never won in a few grass attempts overseas and has only produced two other winless foals. Yet the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and synthetic specialist Smiling Tiger, G1 Del Mar Debutante winner She’s a Tiger, and turf stakes winner Smiling Causeway. This colt strikes me as a runner who will really appreciate getting on turf based on his action. Bill Mott adds blinkers and he drew a good post position with an underrated turf rider aboard.

Fair Value:
#3 INHERENT PROMISE, at 5-1 or greater