PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 10 - 9 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   11 - 14 - 9 - 16
Race 4:   3 - 11 - 4 - 16
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 3 - 13
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   13 - 9 - 2 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 8

The problem with many of the contenders in this state-bred allowance event is the overall lack of early speed in the race. That includes the morning line favorite Bourbon Chase (#1), who seems content to settle for minor awards even when things go his way. He’s obviously not a turf horse, so he’s getting back on the right surface. I just wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on him, since he doesn’t really have a speed figure advantage, and he will be overbet as usual with Irad Ortiz aboard. Five horses in this field exit another paceless event on Sep. 24, where Boys Code (#5) achieved the best finish at a big price. Yet he’s a one-run closer who seems even more compromised this time, as he seems to do better in those two turn races. Among the horses exiting that Sep. 24 event, Amedeus Music (#7) probably ran the best race, since he didn’t break that sharply and made a nice middle move to chase the winner on the turn before flattening out. He shouldn’t mind the turnback to a one-turn mile, but he does have a tendency to be slow out of the gate. That is a concern given the pace scenario. Uncle Marty (#3) possesses a bit more tactical speed, but he has to prove that his last effort was no fluke, since it was such an improvement on his prior form. Given this situation, my top pick is Mama’s Gold (#4). If we have learned one thing about this horse, it’s that he is at his best when he get out in front by himself and set a comfortable pace. Those were the circumstances under which he broke his maiden by 21 lengths last winter, and he again responded to that scenario last time. This is a tougher field than the starter allowance group he beat, but it’s not that much of a step up in class. I don’t mind him turning back slightly, and he figures to get another wet track, which we know he appreciates. If Romero Maragh is able to hustle him clear early, the rest of this field might be in trouble.

Fair Value:
#4 MAMA'S GOLD, at 3-1 or greater