PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 7 - 2B - 1/1A
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 1A - 4
Race 3:   8 - 2 - 10 - 3
Race 4:   10 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 7 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Coupled entries pose a significant problem in this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. All members of the two entries in this race would be interesting individually, but they’re bound to offer bad value as pairs. That’s a little less of an issue for the favored pair of Eliminate (#1) and Sturdy (#1A), since the former is going to take so much more money than his entrymate. Eliminate is clearly the horse to beat based on his encouraging debut. That felt like a strong maiden event, and runner-up Hurricane Nelson has since come back to run well without winning. However, I’m not convinced that this horse is necessarily going to love the distance. While he is a son of Curlin, the dam’s side of his pedigree is very sprint-oriented. It’s even more annoying that the Chad Brown pair are coupled, because both would be intriguing individual betting interests. I slightly prefer Middle Market (#2B), who appears to have more of a dirt route profile after staying on at one pace in his debut. I just don’t expect him to be much of a price. Given the lack of value on the entries, I want to keep an open mind about some alternatives. Golden Plate (#7) has a right to do better as he switches back to dirt. He really didn’t run that badly on debut against a very tough field at Saratoga. He got bumped hard and checked at the start that day before making a middle move. He tried turf last time, but looks to be more of a dirt type. My top pick is Shamrock Shake (#5). It remains to be seen how good this horse will ultimately turn out to be, but I do think he’s finally landing in the right kind of spot. He seems like one that they ran on turf first time out just to get the distance for him, since he really has more of a dirt pedigree. He switched to dirt last time, but was outrun every step of the way in a fast race won by General Partner. I did think he was staying on at the end, and now he finally gets to stretch out. He’ll fly under the radar and be the right price in a race where there is plenty of guesswork to be done.

Fair Value:
#5 SHAMROCK SHAKE, at 10-1 or greater
#7 GOLDEN PLATE, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 4

I’ll be interested to see how this race develops on the front end, as it feels like there are multiple speeds who don’t necessarily have to be ridden aggressively. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring runners on or near the lead, and I could definitely see that playing out. However, I’m not convinced that this race is as simple as defaulting to a horse like Legends Can’t Die (#2) just because he looks like the fastest early. Legends Can’t Die is coming off a solid return effort on dirt, for which he earned a strong 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He has run well on the turf before, but I can’t say that any of his turf races quite measure up to his two best dirt performances. He figures to be a short price, especially if stablemate Senbei (#2B) somehow draws in off the AE list. I would prefer that runner between the two in this entry, but I generally try to avoid entries altogether. The other coupled entry that’s also split between the main body and AE list is the Michael Dubb and partners pair. Run Curtis Run (#1) is the one likely to participate, as he returns from a layoff for his belated 4-year-old debut. He made an impressive run from off the pace to win two back against 3-year-olds, and then go the wrong trip in his 2022 finale, rushing up to contest the pace after a slow break. He's dangerous if he’s ready off the layoff. Chess Master (#6) might be finding the right class level after being too ambitiously placed first off the claim for new connections in the Harvey Pack. He had run well to win against cheaper foes in his start prior to that, but has the back class to contend at this level. My top pick is Souzak (#10). This French-bred was a sprinter on turf in France as a 2-year-old, winning three in a row to conclude his juvenile season. He displayed excellent closing speed to win those two sprints in August and September of last year. Purchased for $392k at Arqana Saint-Cloud last year, he debuted for the new connections at Gulfstream, racing in a pair of turf route stakes. Yet those efforts perhaps exposed him as one that doesn’t want to go that far. He traveled keenly in both races, but failed to produce a finish. He’s now been off for a while, but returns for a trainer who does well off long layoffs. Graham Motion is 4 for 17 (24%, $4.35 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years, with 11 of those hitting the board. I’m a little worried about the lack of pace, but I do think this is the right kind of spot for him.

Fair Value:
#10 SOUZAK, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

The two fillies dropping out of graded stakes figure to attract support, and justifiably so, in this Chelsey Flower. Gold Lightning (#2) should go favored despite coming off a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Miss Grillo. Her debut was pretty impressive, as she knifed through the pack to win going away. However, she failed to produce that same kick last time after getting quite keen in the early stages of that race. I want to see her reproduce that Saratoga performance again before supporting her in this kind of race. My top pick is the other class dropper. Ozara (#5) didn’t run that badly in the Natalma, considering that she was chasing an honest pace in a race where the winner really stretched the field out through the lane. She had previously displayed some likeable attributes on debut, when overcoming traffic and digging in to fend off the favorite in the late stages. I think this daughter of Lope de Vega still has a right to be pretty good, and she’s landed in an appropriate spot. I prefer those to Latte Lizzie (#8), who may take some money for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She’s still a maiden after two starts, but did run well each time. I just thought she had a good trip overall in that stakes attempt last time and preferred others at similar prices. The other horse that I want to use prominently is Tricky Temper (#6). There isn’t a ton of turf pedigree with this filly, though Into Mischief is a solid influence and her full-sibling is a turf winner. She’s been entered for turf in two of her three starts, and now finally gets on the surface. She ran deceptively well last time after getting fouled at the quarter pole and rallying again inside of foes to secure second. She strikes me as one that should take to this surface, though I wonder if the distance will be a bit far for her.

Fair Value:
#5 OZARA, at 3-1 or greater
#6 TRICKY TEMPER, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7

The pace scenario of this Athenia was significantly altered when Miss Dracarys scratched. Technical Analysis (#6) is clearly best when she can establish the lead, and she figures to do so without that main pace rival participating. Horses like Favor (#8) and Uncorked (#9) have gotten aggressive rides on occasion, but they're not as naturally fast as the favorite. Technical Analysis surely won't be as compromised as last time, where a longshot engaged her early, as the two of them ran off from the field before fading. The pace of that race was deceptively fast, as all the fractions are artificially slowed by a lack of run-up. A repeat of that performance will make her tough, but she’s going to be a short price again. Chad Brown sends out a couple of stablemates, including Fluffy Socks (#3), who finished ahead of the favorite last time. Yet Fluffy Socks got a great trip, saving ground before angling out in the stretch. She had every chance to go by the winner late and just couldn’t quite get the job done. She’s settle for minor awards more often than not, and I preferred others this time. I do think the new face for Brown, Beaute Cachee (#4), is intriguing. She’s been facing weaker company, but I liked the way she finished last time in the Violet, albeit with a good trip. She strikes me as one that still has upside, and could be dangerous if she finally settles better in the early stages of this race. My top pick is a horse from a different stable. Sparkle Blue (#1) is still underrated despite winning the Grade 3 Valley View and placing in the Grade 1 American Oaks last season. While she hasn’t matched those achievements yet as a 4-year-old, she’s run well on a number of occasions. The first couple of races were the wrong spots – too tough and too far – but she’s since gotten on track. She was very impressive closing into a slow pace to win the Big Dreyfus to earn a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and then last time she rallied well into another moderate pace despite never racing on the rail at Kentucky Downs. I'm a little less confident after scratches, but I still think she'll be the right price.

Fair Value:
#1 SPARKLE BLUE, at 9-2 or greater