PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 2:   1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   9 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 6:   11 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 10 - 9
Race 10:   2 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 11:   8 - 3 - 6 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

The two favorites look pretty formidable at first glance in this Gio Ponti, but I think they both have some questions to answer. Appraise (#5) comes off the best last race of any of these when finishing second against a strong field in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. However, he was no match for stablemate Carl Spackler and was losing ground quickly at the end of that race. He probably should have finished behind third-place finisher More Than Looks, who had a much tougher trip. It’s obvious that Appraise has returned as an improved horse this season, but I still have some doubts about him being a true two-turn horse. He was a decent price last time, and now he’s going to be favored off that perfect trip effort. Northern Invader (#3) is the other horse who figures to take money, primarily based on that dazzling 8-length maiden victory in his turf debut at Belmont in July. Yet he failed to run back to that performance when he tried stakes company in the Secretariat at Colonial. Bet down to 9-5 favoritism, he had his chance to make an impact and just faded in the stretch. I’m a little concerned that he beat a weak field in that maiden score, and he might not build on that performance. Given very short prices on these two, I’m willing to look elsewhere. Bat Flip (#2) has some races for his 2-year-old season that put him in the mix, but his recent form has been abysmal. He hasn’t gotten ideal trips in those races, but I still would have preferred to see him do some running. Ohana Honor (#4) is coming off a visually impressive allowance score at Colonial, but he beat a very weak field that day. The only other horse to consider is City Fever (#1), and I think there’s a good case to be made for this colt. He showed talent in that narrow loss on debut, and obviously benfited from that experience in his second start, showing vastly improved tactical speed to lead throughout. I’m not as concerned about his quality as he steps up against stakes company. He earned a competitive 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that maiden score, and multiple horses have returned from that race to validate the number. The major question is the distance, but he does have pedigree to go at least a mile, and I like his inside draw in this compact field. He goes out for an underrated barn and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#1 CITY FEVER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

Two horses moving up in class out of claiming victories figure to dominate the wagering in this starter allowance. Forced Ranking (#6) will attract plenty of support off his return victory for Chad Brown at Saratoga. Risked for $25k, he won like a horse that is worth a bit more than that, and stayed with the barn after his claim was voided by the vet. He beat a decent field that day, but only earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He has to do better to win here, and I wonder if he’ll be ready to deliver a similar performance on the class rise after needing so much time prior to that last start. He’s the horse to beat, but I think others will offer better value. Brooklyn Diamonds (#7) has a similar profile in that he’s also moving up in class off a win. He won a slower $16k claimer at Saratoga two back, overcoming a poor start and traffic-filled trip to win. He proved that he was indeed capable of much better with a clean trip, as he displayed in his dominant score last time. Now he moves way up in class and also turns back in distance for Linda Rice. He makes sense, but his form is now exposed. Giroovin (#4) has decent form at this level, having finished second in two starter allowance attempts since getting claimed by Rob Falcone. I thought he battled on pretty gamely for second going this distance last time, and that form stacks up quite well against those who will be shorter prices. My top pick is Big Venezuela (#8). I know this horse isn’t exactly a winning type, but he’s going to get overlooked in this spot despite possessing form that makes him a legitimate threat against this field. He ran well at this level multiple times last winter before experimenting on turf during the summer months. He didn’t even run that badly in a few of his turf attempts. Returned to dirt on Aug. 3, he raced on a dead rail and did well to finish third. Then last time he was always out of position in a race dominated by the speedy Win for Gold, who is better than anyone he meets here. I like him getting back out to 7 furlongs, which is his best distance. He also makes his first start off a switch to Faith Wilson, whose horses have been running well out of town.

Fair Value:
#8 BIG VENEZUELA, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Lday Mia (#8) might go favored against this group as she drops into a starter allowance race for her second start in the U.S. She’s eligible for this condition because she competed in claiming races in France as a 2-year-old. She did show quite a bit of improvement during that season, which prompted her new connections to buy her. However, it remains to be seen if she is going to pan out as a purchase. She was pretty disappointing in her return from the layoff last time, dropping back through the pack while having nothing to offer in a race that otherwise was a merry-go-round. She now meets a softer field, but she figures to take money again based on those races from long ago. I want to look elsewhere. I’m intrigued by Latest Edition (#7) turning back in distance. This filly got far too rank in her return from the layoff at Saratoga, fighting her rider through the early stages before fading. She probably needed that race anyway, and she did show some progression through her 3-year-old season. She has pedigree to go shorter, and her keen nature could translate well to sprinting. Linarite (#1) would appreciate any pace that develops, and she has been in good form for David Donk. I just felt she was very much with the race flow last time when closing for third at Saratoga. Saratoga Gaze (#4) exits that same race, and I thought she put in the better effort. I maintain that you didn’t want to be inside on the Mellon turf course during the final weeks of the Saratoga meet, and that Aug. 27 turf sprint was one of many dominated by outside closing types. Saratoga Gaze hugged the rail around the turn and only tipped out into the two-path in the stretch. She briefly vied for the lead before getting swallowed up late. She also ran better than it looks two back when chasing a fast pace that fell apart on opening day of the Saratoga meet. I think she’s in better form than it appears, and she figures to be another fair price.

Fair Value:
#4 SARATOGA GAZE, at 6-1 or greater
#7 LATEST EDITION, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 9

It’s hard to trust anyone in this wide open $32k turf claimer. I know I don’t want Principled Stand (#7), whose connections are trying to offload after a series of disappointing performances. He’s the main speed, but he’s lacked finishing power in his recent starts, and he figures to take money by default. Eyes on Target (#9) is arguably the most reliable contender as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He dropped in class to a level that seemed to suit him last time, and proved best despite getting controversially disqualified. Rice does well off the claim, though her numbers are better with dirt horses. Landbiscuit (#10) finished behind him that day, and figures to be a much better price here. He’s started twice since then, once on dirt, and then getting a wide trip on turf against a tougher allowance field last time. He’s finally back in the right spot and should be a generous price. Clear Vision (#4) has races that would crush this group, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him after he ran so poorly in his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He did get steadied in upper stretch of that Kentucky Downs race, but he was already beaten. He might be able to make better use of his tactical speed on the drop in class here. My top pick is Nolo Contesto (#8). This horse has never won on the turf, but he’s handled it in all of his attempts. Most recently he closed for sixth against a much better field at Saratoga in August going a distance that is almost surely too sharp for him. He had previously run well routing on turf in California as a younger horse. Plenty of time has passed since then, but he appears to be back in decent form for David Jacobson. I like him stretching out again, and his tactical speed should be an asset in a race where the front-running types are unreliable.

Fair Value:
#8 NOLO CONTESTO, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 11

I wouldn’t bet any of the short prices in this maiden claiming finale. They all have major questions to answer, and none appears to have that significant an edge over their rivals. The horse to beat is perhaps Mim (#3), whose lone turf race as a 2-year-old really wasn’t that bad. She faded to finish fourth against maiden special weight foes, but has since proven to be a better sprinter on dirt. Turning back on turf should suit her. However, she is making her first start off the claim for a barn that has been pretty quite during the past year. It is notable that Mo Damorninggrouch (#11) and Gotham Gray (#12) draw into the field off the AE list after a couple of scratches. Both have competitive prior turf sprint form, but need to overcome outside post positions. Looking for alternatives, Unholy (#6) does possess some turf pedigree, and might appreciate this surface switch for underrated turf trainer Michelle Nevin. Yet I'm going in a different direction with Galatrona (#8). She looked like a filly with some upside when she made her debut as a 2-year-old. She took some money that day, and looked like one who needed a start. However, she appeared to take a step backwards when she returned this year. A wide trip didn’t work for her at Aqueduct in April, and then she essentially bolted in that May 27 race before getting eased. She got some time off after that, and returned in an off the turf race at Saratoga. I was encouraged that she ran a more professional race, flashing improved early speed before fading. She appears to be much more of a turf horse, and I think she’s sitting on an improved effort if she’s able to display that same speed on the grass this time.

Fair Value:
#8 GALATRONA, at 6-1 or greater