PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   10 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   11 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   8 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   1A - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   4 - 11 - 1 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: MR. MARLIN (#6)

I expect Chulligan (#2) to attract plenty of support as he makes his second start. This $825k son of Justify is out of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold, so he’s obviously bred to be a good one. However, he looked very much like a work in progress on debut at Saratoga. He didn’t seem to be engaged early in the race when dropping to the back of the pack, and only got involved until the very late stages. However, that was a race that featured a strong pace, so he was basically picking up pieces at the end. He has a right to improve on the stretch-out to a mile, but I’m not keen to pick him at a short price. I’m more interested in runners coming out of a different race. Atlanta’s Acuna (#4) took plenty of money when he made his debut late in the Saratoga meet, but also ran a like a horse who needed the race. He broke a step slowly, rushed up to chase the pace, and then hung on his left lead while lugging in through the stretch. He strikes me as one that will improve with added ground, though I could also see him preferring turf eventually. My top pick is Mr. Marlin (#6). He finished behind Atlanta’s Acuna in that Sep. 5 affair, but he didn’t seem to put forth his best effort that day. Breaking from the rail, he just never looked to be traveling comfortably, reacting badly to kickback at a few points. We saw something similar in his debut when he dropped back on the turn before rallying strongly when angled into the clear for the stretch drive. Given that tendency to resent kickback, I like the outside post position for him. He also seems like one that should appreciate the stretch-out to a mile.

WIN: #6 Mr. Marlin, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 5: BERT BERT BERT (#7)

Central Pride (#4) just seems like a logical favorite as he gets needed class relief while dropping in for a tag for the first time. I’m not sure why they ran him on turf 3 times, as he never showed much affinity for grass. All of his dirt performances against maiden special weight foes suggest he’s good enough to break through at this lower level. He was beaten by superior rivals last time out and actually finished up with some interest, suggesting a mile may be within his scope. However, John Terranova is just 3 for 31 (10%, $0.86 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns over 5 years. I could also consider Midnight Express (#6) from that same race, as he does have some upside. He didn’t do much running after racing greenly early, but he should also appreciate the class relief, and Steve Klesaris does well with second time starters. My top pick is Bert Bert Bert (#7). This colt’s debut wasn’t actually that bad, as he was facing a pretty tough field of maiden special weight foes. He lacked early speed that day but was finishing up with some interest towards the end. He didn’t fare as well in his second start, but he was off for a long time thereafter. Since then he’s returned to run twice on turf for Charlton Baker with little to show for it. However, he’s better bred for dirt, so I like him getting back on this surface. The class relief figures to help, and I think he can finally build on his debut now that he’s spotted appropriately.

WIN: #7 Bert Bert Bert, at 7-2 or greater