PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 9 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 8 - 1 - 9
Race 8:   10 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 10 - 1 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

Let’s Go Big Blue (#5) figures to take plenty of money after crossing the wire first in a stakes last time. He was legitimately disqualified for drifting out in the lane, but still ran a strong race to finish in a photo with heady favorite Ramblin’ Wreck. Yet now he’s stepping up against a tough field of older horses. He’s gotten great trips in his last couple of starts, and I think he might be somewhat overrated at this point. Agent Creed (#2) seems almost as likely to win here, and he might be a more enticing price. This gelding was compromised by a very slow pace last time when attempting to rally at Saratoga. Prior to that he had run into the talented Spirit of St. Louis. He doesn’t have as much upside as some others, but he’s in strong form and drew well. Mike Maker sends out a pair of entrants who both offer some appeal. Ocala Dream (#9) would obviously be a major player if able to get back to his best races from the past. Some will be turned off by his recent form, as he hasn’t hit the board since winning the 2022 Kingston. Yet he’s run well in a few spots since then, including when he tried the Kingston again this season, only losing to division leader City Man by 4 lengths. He made his first start off the claim for Maker last time and was simply overmatched in the West Point. Now he’s getting needed class relief, and should be a decent price. My top pick is Maker’s other entrant King of Comedy (#7). This colt figures to get dismissed following his disappointing fifth-place result behind Let’s Go Big Blue last time. However, he didn’t get the best trip that day. He was keen early while being rated in the pocket. He then lacked some room in upper stretch when trying to come up in the inside, which probably wasn’t the best place to be on a Mellon turf course that was favoring outside paths that week. He did have everything his own way when he won his N1X condition two back, but he still was an impressive winner. And prior to that he arguably ran better than Let’s Go Big Blue in that June 10 allowance where he was never on an advantageous rail. I think he’s better than some of the results indicate and this might be the right time to bet him.

Fair Value:
#7 KING OF COMEDY, at 7-1 or greater
#9 OCALA DREAM, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

Anyone who watched the replay of Once an Eagle (#7) on debut can appreciate that she’s a lot better than the sixth-place result might suggest. She seemingly had plenty of run coming to the top of the stretch, but got completely stymied in traffic over the final quarter mile, costing her any chance of achieving a placing. This filly is bred for turf, so I don’t care too much about the dirt race last time, and I view her as clearly the horse to beat. Another that would interest me if she drew into the field is Midnight Concerto (#13). She lacked any early speed whatsoever on debut, but was absolutely flying through the stretch before galloping out well. She’s another who is bred for turf and has a right to move up on this surface for a barn whose runners typically do well after a start. My top pick is another horse switching surfaces. Denver’s Alley (#1) was meant for grass on debut but stayed in after the race was rained off. She actually took some money, but ran like a horse who needed that race to gain some fitness. She got a little rank in the early stages and traveled well to the halfway point before coming up empty in the stretch. Horses that abruptly come off the bridle like that are often helped by the switch to turf. She doesn’t have the most obvious grass pedigree, but there is turf breeding on the dam’s side stemming from second dam Ipi Tombe, who was a turf star in South Africa. I expect her to do much better with the switch to grass, and she might be a square price with Katie Davis aboard.

Fair Value:
#1 DENVER'S ALLEY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

This Winter Memories seems fairly wide open with no standouts. Liguria (#1) and Tax Implications (#8) might vie for favoritism going out for the Chad Brown barn after finishing first and second in the Wild Applause going this distance at Belmont in June. I thought Liguria got the better trip that day, waiting to make the last run in a race that fell apart. They met again in the Lake George after that, and Tax Implications clearly put in the stronger performance as Liguria delivered an inexplicably dull effort. She has to rebound here, but she does get Irad Ortiz back aboard. Tax Implications followed up those pair of runner-up finishes with a slightly disappointing effort as the favorite in the Lake Placid last time. She’s probably a little better going a mile, but I still didn’t like the way she came off the bridle so early last time. She was run down in the late stages by Soviet Excess (#7), who is also back in this spot. That filly got completely ignored on the tote board, but held her own coming with a nice late run. She had also run deceptively well in the Wild Applause, but won’t be as big of a price this time. The wild card in this field is Sacred Wish (#3). She’s perhaps the most talented runner in the field, but she’s never raced on turf. There’s a bit of pedigree for her to handle on the dam’s side, and sire Not This Time can get any type of runner. She’s trained pretty well on the grass at Saratoga, but that’s not quite the same as racing over it in the afternoon. I think she’s dangerous here, but just wouldn’t want to take too short a price on her. My top pick is the biggest price of the Chad Brown entrants. Lady Beth (#10) was pretty impressive in her debut victory at Gulfstream back in February. That came over the Tapeta surface, but she beat a solid field in decisive fashion, drawing off to a convincing score. It took her a while to get back to the races after that, though she was rained off the turf once between that start and the Soaring Softly. Chad Brown opted to cut her back in distance for that stakes debut, and she just seemed to lack the speed for that affair. She got outrun at the quarter pole, but was staying on best of all at the end before galloping out ahead of the field. She now returns from another layoff, but I like the way she’s training and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer.

Fair Value:
#10 LADY BETH, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Being Betty (#1) lost all chance at the start of her debut, when she got bumped and checked in a chaotic set of events leaving the gate. She found herself far back in the early stages and made a strong run to catch up to the field in the stretch. Though she flattened out just a bit at the end, she had a right to do so after dealing with that adversity. There’s plenty of pedigree for her to be a nice turf horse, and she figures to do better with that experience under her belt. I just think there are a few interesting first time turfers in this field. One of them is Stormy Disco (#10). This filly was pretty chilly on the board in her dirt debut, but that was probably just a prep. She actually ran fairly well, chasing the pace, and staying on at the quarter pole before fading a bit late. This filly’s pedigree is all turf, as her sire Disco Partner is a 2-time Jaipur winner who is also a world record holder at this distance on grass. The dam made all of her starts on turf, and her only winning foal won on turf. My top pick is Pretty Up (#6). She took some money to get bet down to 4-1 on debut, where she showed brief speed before fading around the turn. That might have just been the wrong surface for her, as the dam made all of her starts on turf, and has produced 3 winners, all of which won on the turf. The best of those is 7-time turf winner Dancingwithpaynter. Practical Joke is a decent turf influence for sprinters. Furthermore, Rudy Rodriguez is 6 for 40 (15%, $4.50 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time in sprints over 5 years, so he can win with prices in this scenario. She had trained well prior to the debut, and probably just needs this surface switch.

Fair Value:
#6 PRETTY UP, at 5-1 or greater
#10 STORMY DISCO, at 5-1 or greater