PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   5 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 1 - 10
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: QUICK HAMMER (#6)

Unknown Agenda (#3) figures to attract support in his debut for the Todd Pletcher barn. This $100k yearling purchase is by 15% juvenile debut sire Munnings. The dam was unraced and this is her first foal to start. This is hardly the classiest female family, but the horse has been working well. He has looked best in company with another unraced stablemate in his recent drills, and appears to have some speed. He looks pretty well suited to debuting at this 6-furlong distance for a barn that knows how to win with these types. Yet I prefer a different firster from another powerful stable. Quick Hammer (#6) debuts for Brad Cox, who has been having a solid season with his 2-year-olds. He debuted some live runners in the last couple of weeks of the Saratoga meet, and appears to have another good one here. This $200k yearling purchase only sold for $100k at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale this year after working a furlong in 10 1/5. Mor Spirit is 5 for 30 with debut runners in his first crop, and this colt is a half-brother G1 La Brea winner Kalypso. The dam is also a full-sister to G2 Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective. He worked competitively with debut runner-up Tapit’s Conquest in late July, and then was best from the gate with an unraced mate on Sep. 3. He appears to have some talent. I prefer these to the experienced Space (#5), who exits a race of dubious quality, and Signator (#4), an expensive auction purchase who looks like he might need a start.

WIN: #6 Quick Hammer, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 2: TIDE OF THE SEA (#2)

Space Launch (#4) is arguably the one to beat after just getting nailed on the wire by Dynadrive at this level last time. That performance was flattered when that rival returned to win the Lure Stakes at Saratoga at another huge price. He’s now stretching out to the farthest distance he’s ever attempted, and I’m not sure that 10-furlong effort last time suggests that added ground is necessarily his preference. He’s a contender, but I didn’t want him as the favorite. Among the short prices, I prefer the Chad Brown runner Dream Works (#5). It feels like this French-bred gelding was just being given a start in his U.S. debut. He was part of an entry that day, and got a pretty conservative ride from Flavien Prat, who is aboard again here. He was best over slightly longer trips in France, so this stretch-out figures to be much more suitable for him. I also think this is a softer spot than the race he exits. My top pick is Tide of the Sea (#2). This gelding has been rained off the turf twice in a row since being claimed by Tom Morley. He actually ran pretty well first off the claim on July 28 when gamely holding on for third behind a couple of proven dirt horses. And then last time in the John’s Call he just didn’t handle a fast, harrowed track quite as well. His prior turf start in June isn’t as bad as it looks, since he got a tentative ride while going wide on both turns. I think he’s in better form than it might appear, and he’s supposed to play out as the controlling speed here.

WIN: #2 Tide of the Sea, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 4: GLITTER UP (#6)

Tattersalls purchase Expand the Map (#4) has obviously been a disappointment on the racetrack. She was heavily favored over eventual BC winner Pizza Bianca in her debut last summer, but was forced to settle for second after making a wide run on the far turn. She appeared to have that return race gift-wrapped for her this spring at Aqueduct, but shortened stride in the final eighth despite getting away with moderate fractions. Chad Brown is 7 for 19 (37%, $2.65 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on turf over 5 years. She looks like the horse to beat, but I’m not too keen on swallowing another short price on her. I prefer Glitter Up (#6), who is finally concentrating on turf races, as her two grass races are clearly the best efforts of her career. She finally got back on this surface last time after just missing in her turf debut as a 2-year-old. She was no match for winner Mrs. Green last month, but battled on gamely to just miss second after setting a pressured pace. Now she takes the blinkers off, but still looks like the speed. She has the credentials to break through at this level and figures to be a much better price than her main rival. The other runner who interests me a bit is first time starter Wish List (#8). I really like Astern as a sire of turf sprinters, and she has plenty of pedigree for these conditions on the dam’s side. All four of this dam’s foals to race are winners, and two of them won on grass. Second dam Superstar Leo was a top turf sprinter in Europe, finishing second in the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp. John Terranova typically does better with experienced runners, but he has sent out some big prices to win their debuts on the turf over the years.

WIN: #6 Glitter Up, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 7: STRIKING SPEED (#1)

There are very few runners that I trust in this wide open $25k claiming event. Chris and Dave (#2) would make sense if I could have any confidence that he would recapture his best form, but he's a little hard to trust off his recent efforts even as he goes back to trainer Rob Atras. Dust Devil (#3) is another with back races that would make him awfully tough, but his recent form is somewhat lackluster and there isn’t much pace in here to set up his late run. Vintage Hollywood (#4) has plenty of back races that put him in the mix, but he's coming off a dreadful performance, and he's another that seems to have lost some of his early speed. Since the short prices do little for me, I want to give a look to the longest price in the race, Striking Speed (#1). At first glance it appears that he’s in terrible form, but I think we can be somewhat forgiving of his recent results. He had no chance in those N1X races he tried at Saratoga, especially going sprint distances that are too short for him. He actually ran quite well at a tougher claiming level in May when setting the pace before just getting nailed on the wire at 38-1. A repeat of that performance makes him a threat here, and he’s supposed to play out as the controlling speed from his rail draw. He’s not the most trustworthy option, but he’s going to be a gigantic price and is supposed to appreciate both the class relief and stretch-out to a mile.

WIN: #1 Striking Speed, at 10-1 or greater
USE: 2,3,4

RACE 8: FONTANAFREDDA (#6)

I’m against some horses who could take money in this spot, particularly Jill’s a Hot Mess (#2) and Kokopelli (#9). The former benefited from a great pace setup when she was second at this level last time, whereas the latter just hasn’t really panned out since getting fantastic trips to win the first two starts of her career. I think there are others that are far more appealing, possibly at better prices. My top pick is Fontanafredda (#6). This filly was much the best when she won her N1X condition at Saratoga two back, overcoming an extremely wide trip to get the job done. While she crossed the wire fourth in her first start against winners, she was arguably best again that day. She got taken up soon after the start, and then was again forced to race wide. She was 3-wide early on the turn, and pushed out to race 4-wide approaching the stretch, losing significant ground in a race dominated on the front end. Things then got even worse when she was pushed out in the stretch, for which a rival was disqualified. She’s subtly shown significant improvement in recent starts, and I think she’s actually the horse to beat in this spot. Social Whirl (#5) should appreciate the slight cutback to 6 furlongs after fading in her last start going seven-eighths. She was forced to miss the Saratoga meet, but was in decent form prior to that and just seems like a logical fit here. The other runners that I want to use are Shesawildjoker (#3), who was compromised by a slow pace when unwisely rated last time, and Towering Orbit (#4), who showed affinity for grass against weaker last time but has to break more alertly after having gate issues in most of her recent starts.

WIN: #6 Fontanafredda, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3,4,5