PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 12 - 2 - 10
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: LIA MARINA (#2)

Mail Order (#7) is the horse to beat even though she finished behind a rival that she meets again here in her last start. This Mott trainee completely blew the start last time, as she hit the gate and broke over a length slowly. To make matters worse, she then quickly rushed up to take the lead, exerting far too energy in the opening quarter. She ultimately paid the price in fading to third. This time the start isn’t as critical with her drawing the outside post position. She also should appreciate the stretch-out to 6 furlongs. That said, she is a horse who has one standout speed figure and will be a short price. I do prefer her to Mischievous Dream (#3), who just picked by second by default last time in a race that may not be as strong as the speed figures indicates. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her and believe she would have to improve. The other Clement runner also needs to take a step forward, but at least Lia Marina (#2) has significant upside. She was never going to be competitive with the talented Spendarella last time, and she was game to win that stakes two back over some horses who have since improved. She started out her career as a sprinter, so this seems like a natural spot to bring her back off the layoff. I also view it as a sign of confidence that Clement had originally entered her in the Pebbles Stakes a few weeks ago before scratching in favor of this race. Strong Odor (#4) had some trouble in her last race at Gulfstream and is another that I could use underneath in her return from the layoff.

WIN: #2 Lia Marina, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 3: BAVARIAN CREME (#8)

I suppose Photon (#7) could take some money as she tries turf for the first time, but she’s not the kind of horse I want switching surfaces. She’s going to take money based on her dirt performances, and she really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass. Succulent (#6) is the horse to beat as she attempts to earn her first official victory after crossing the wire first last time and getting disqualified. She’s been in great form for David Donk lately, but she is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of pace. Tara Dancer (#4) seems like a candidate to rebound after she got a strange trip last time. She was allowed to race in the 3-path for much of that race during a time where you wanted to be inside, and she just dropped back on the turn under little encouragement. She had run better in her debut, but did benefit from a soft pace that day. My top pick is Bavarian Creme (#8). I think she’s run better than it appears in both turf starts to date. She was compromised by a slow start and a lack of aggression when she made her turf debut on May 30. She actually seemed to handle the surface pretty well that day in closing for fourth. She finished last of 12 in her most recent turf attempt at Saratoga, but everything went wrong from a trip standpoint. She was bumped at the start and then forced to race 4-wide on the turns during a time when you had to save ground. She’s better than that and would benefit from a more aggressive ride here.

WIN: #8 Bavarian Creme, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4: DORSODURO (#7)

I just didn’t want to default to the two favorites in this $40k maiden claimer. Actualize (#4) and Upper Level (#6) both make plenty of sense, but they’re going to take all the money as they each drop down out of maiden special weight events. Actualize has the superior recent form and makes plenty of sense off his last effort. However, he’s not the most reliable type and the connections did try to drop him in for $20k early in the Saratoga meet. Upper Level ran a race on debut that would make him awfully tough for this group to handle. However, it's odd that they went right to turf and it feels like he may have gone the wrong way since then. This barn has been having a tough go of it this year and I didn’t want to take a short price on him either. I don’t love my pick of Dorsoduro (#7), but I do think he’s a little interesting as a runner who could get ignored on the tote board. His speed figures aren’t as fast as others, but he is also dropping out of some tougher maiden special weight events. He faced good horses in each of his last two starts, and prior to that he actually raced competitively in a couple of his 2-year-old performances. Roy Lerman has solid stats off this type of layoff in a small sample, and he’s been working pretty aggressively for this return.

WIN: #7 Dorsoduro, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6: GALATRONA (#4)

Showemyourheels (#13) would alter the complexion of this race if she got in off the AE list, because I do think she’d be the horse to beat. She arguably ran the best race of anyone exiting that common July 28 affair at Saratoga, as she got squeezed back at the start and rallied well through traffic for fourth. Like others in here, she’s been entered a few times since then, but keeps getting stuck on the AE list. Fancypants Juliana (#2) and Moonage Daydream (#10) also ran well in that July 28 affair and can improve, but I think there are some other new faces that are a little more intriguing. Ma Mi Jo Dreams (#12) switches surfaces following a dirt debut in which she flashed brief speed and faded. Freud is obviously a strong turf influence, and the dam is a half-sister to a few multiple turf winners, including stakes-placed Amazing Anne and Deciphering Dreams, who were both sired by Freud. Furthermore, Rick Schosberg is 5 for 25 (20%, $4.58 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years. My top pick is first time starter Galatrona (#4). Get Stormy isn’t the best debut influence, but he is an underrated turf sire. The dam has produced 6 winners from as many foals to race, 3 of which are turf sprint winners. The best of those is 3-time turf winner Fontanafredda, who is a three-quarter sister. H. James Bond often gives his debut runners a start, but this filly has shown some speed in the mornings feels live with Joel Rosario being tapped to ride.

WIN: #4 Galatrona, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #12 Ma Mi Jo Dreams, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7: FINEST WORK (#9)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Make Mischief (#2), who is a real wild card in this lineup as she makes her turf debut in the 21st start of her career. If she merely transfers her dirt form to grass, she’ll be awfully tough for this group to handle. Into Mischief wins with an excellent 14% of his turf route starters, and all 4 of the dam’s other foals to race are turf winners. However, she’s going to take money off her dirt speed figures and those types are often bad bets. Marvelous Maude (#4) might be the horse to beat as she drops back in against New York-bred company. I won’t hold the last-place finish in the Flower Bowl against her, as that was Plan B once the Yaddo was rained off the turf. She’s moved forward with nearly every start, and will be tough if able to build on that open N1X victory from earlier in the Saratoga meet. I think the 9 furlongs suits her, but I don’t love the likely price as Irad Ortiz rides for Chad Brown. Finest Work (#9) finished just behind that filly when they met in that July 30 affair, but I thought she ran just as well in defeat. She had to briefly pause when attempting to rally between horses in the stretch and was finishing well late. She’s been in excellent form all year for George Weaver and seems to be handling any added distance they throw at her. I’m hoping Manny Franco can work out a stalking trip. I would also use Runaway Rumour (#7) if the price is fair. She has lost 10 races in a row since winning the first 3 starts of her career, but I thought her last race represented a significant step in the right direction. She just barely lost to Vigilante’s Way, who is superior to any runner she meets in this lineup. I also like the rider switch to Prat.

WIN: #9 Finest Work, at at 5-1 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 9: DIAMOND HANDS (#1)

Marketsegmentation (#5) was impressive in her career debut last December, earning a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number makes her competitive here without much improvement needed. She has to overcome a 10-month layoff, but this barn does have fantastic numbers off this kind of layoff. My one knock against her is that she did get an absolutely perfect trip on debut, and is stepping up into a tougher spot here. I actually think her Chad Brown stablemate is a little more interesting at a better price. Salimah (#4) was visually impressive in her Tampa debut earlier this year. She was off for a long time after that, but didn’t run as badly as it seems in her return last time. She got rank in the early stages and then proceeded to get floated wide around both turns. She never had a chance given the ground loss and may do better here second off the layoff. However, I can’t get past the likely pace advantage for Diamonds Hands (#1). I actually think she deserves to be favored here, and I’m not sure that will be the case with Marketsegmentation in the field. She ran very well when she was left alone up front last time, just getting run down by Bahamian Club, who came back validate that performance with a solid third-place finish in the Pebbles. Diamond Hands also ran better than it appears two back when she got the wrong trip, setting the pace inside during a time when closers had an advantage on that course at Belmont. For a 12-horse field, there really isn’t much pace signed on, and she’s just supposed to get clear early from her advantageous inside post position.

WIN: #1 Diamond Hands, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 4