PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 6 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 1: ROSE E HOLIDAY (#4)
The likely favorite in this $40k maiden claimer is dropdown Lightfoot Miss, who makes her second attempt going a mile on dirt after finishing fourth at the maiden special weight level last time. While that might look like a dull effort on paper, she actually ran better than it appears. She was off awkwardly and immediately relegated to the back of the pack. Jan. 15 was a day on which front-runners appeared to have an advantage, and she actually did well to close from far back to pass over half the field. Now she’s landing in a very weak spot and she arguably doesn’t have to improve at all on her prior dirt performances to win. I strong prefer her to others likely to take money, such as Suspended Campaign. This filly has been a disappointment for top connections, and her lone attempt at the mile distance was dismal. I’m only slightly less pessimistic about Nisbet Beach, who has been slow and sluggish in two starts. She was a little green last time at Parx, but that was a bad field and she did little running in the stretch even when she got into the clear. I want to go in a different direction, so I’ve landed on first time starter Rose E Holiday. Some may take a quick glance and dismiss her on the basis of that $85k purchase price now that she’s in for a tag on debut. However, her current connections didn’t pay that. She was actually an RNA at the 2020 OBS sale in June for $42k after working a quarter mile in 21 4/5. It’s reasonable to assume that she was privately purchased after that (presumably for a lesser sum than the RNA price) so debuting at this level isn’t as much of a negative as it might seem. She has some pedigree to be decent, out of dirt router Fair Rose, whose best foal is turf stakes winner Fair Point. This family also handles dirt, and Michelle Nevin can win with first time starters, even over route distances.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5

RACE 4: FLOWERS FOR LISA (#5)
I’m not trying to beat potential favorite Flowers for Lisa. This gelding’s early speed should give him a clear advantage in a race that lacks any other confirmed front-runners. Control Group has a little early zip as well, but that foe has generally been content to stalk in his prior matchups with Flowers for Lisa. While he had to drop down to a cheaper level to return to the winner’s circle last time, he nevertheless put in a solid effort, rebounding to a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in a relatively easy victory. Now he’s making his first start for Rudy Rodriguez, who is 36 for 108 (33%, $2.25 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes. If this old warhorse holds his form or even improves for the new barn, he’s going to be tough to beat. I’m not thrilled with some others who could attract play here, like Control Group, whose form has declined, and Air Attack, who was ready to figure over his preferred 9 furlongs last time. I’d be more interested in Creative Style on the turnback, though I am a little concerned that he’s not going to get back to that effort we saw produced under Danny Gargan’s care two back. Perhaps the most interested horse to use with the favorite is new face Parade Field. This well-traveled gelding tries out a new circuit and different barn. Note that this is not a private purchase, as he’s been owned by Ten Strike Racing for a while now. However, he is switching into the barn of new trainer Michelle Giangiulio, an assistant to Tom Morley. This 5-year-old had a busy season in 2020 and appeared to tail off a bit towards the end of his campaign. That said, he's been competing in significantly tougher N1X allowance races, and could respond well to this drop in class.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4

RACE 6: NOTORIOUS FLIRT (#8)
Bustin Timberlake has clearly improved since coming to the NYRA circuit this winter and is going to be tough for this field to beat in his current form. He was never going to defeat the vastly improved Jemography two back, as that one has since gone on to two consecutive victories while rising in class. And last time he ran a winning race but was just run down by deep closer Double Shot, who got a perfect trip closing into a fast pace. I’m using him prominently, but he could face another difficult pace scenario here, as there is plenty of speed signed on. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems ensured with the likes of run-off leader Step to the Bank in the field. Bustin Timberlake will have to overhaul the speeds and again hold off the late runners, the best of which is main rival Notorious Flirt. I prefer this Linda Rice trainee as he turns back in distance. He actually ran fine going a mile last time, earning a career-best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number came up very high, but horses have returned out of that race to do well, including winner Advanced Strategy. I sill believe Notorious Flirt is better going shorter distances, so I like this return to 6 furlongs. He was only beaten a half-length by Bustin Timberlake back on Dec. 20, and he was wide against the track that day. I also think he’s improved since then. If looking beyond these two, I wouldn’t discount Linda Rice’s other entrant Morgantown. He set the pace in the race that Bustin Timberlake exits last time, but now he takes the blinkers off and has a right to improve second off the layoff with a stalking trip.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 8 with 1,6 with 1,2,5,6