by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1A - 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   9 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 1/1A - 9
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   14 - 12 - 7 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: HARDCORE FOLKLORE (#7)
This is among the most confusing races of the day, since you can make a valid case for almost every member of this field, and none of them seem particularly trustworthy. Who’s in Charge may go off as the favorite after returning victorious in a conditioned claimer late last month. While he earned a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory, he was beating a far weaker field than the one he meets today and he’s likely to face far more pace pressure this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace in which Seanow could possibly outrun this horse to the lead. Furthermore, horses like Invest and Mental Model should be pressing from stalking positions. Invest is an intriguing new face at this level as he makes his first start off the claim for the formidable duo of Michael Dubb and Jason Servis. He ran a competitive speed figure going a mile last time, but he’s handled sprint distances in the past and is getting a significant barn change. I think you have to respect him and I’m even afraid of Mental Model, who notably is not dropped in for a tag by Linda Rice despite running poorly in two starts for this barn last year. I think it’s interesting that she’s chosen to sprint this horse after he’s primarily raced in routes for much of his career. Yet I prefer the closers and there are some intriguing options. Tale of Mist makes some sense after making up ground in his last two starts at this level. He didn’t run as poorly as it seems in the mud last time after a poor start, but I still think he’s best used underneath. My top pick is Hardcore Folklore, who is perhaps the most curious entrant of all in this field. He was claimed for $25,000 just two weeks ago out of a race in which he ran very poorly. Yet instead of dropping him or running back for that same tag, new trainer Gary Gullo is moving up into a much tougher protected spot. This horse was in better form as recently as late December, when he closed well against some tougher rivals. Gullo has excellent statistics off the claim and this horse will appreciate getting back to a sprint distance in a race with more pace.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4,6
 

RACE 6: RUDE AWAKENING (#5)
Officer Hutchy figures to go off as the clear favorite in this spot after blowing the start when second in a similar spot last time. She was clearly compromised by the break that day and did well to close for second, but she still only earned a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance. That makes her one of the major players in this lineup, but it doesn’t suggest that she’s any more likely to win this race than three or four of her rivals. Furthermore, she was bet down to even money that day and is likely to attract an inordinate amount of support once again given that everyone saw the trip she had last time. I’ll use her prominently, but I prefer one of her main rivals, Rude Awakening. This filly has run well in both career starts to date. She hung on for third after contesting an honest pace against a strong field in her debut and then she won going today’s distance while also earning a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That performance was flattered when three rivals who finished behind her returned to improve their speed figures next time out, including Make Or Break, who is back in this field. Furthermore, there is not a ton of speed in this race and Rude Awakening figures to be able to make the lead fairly easily under Eric Cancel, who has been riding very well lately. Some may view it as a negative sign that she’s racing for a tag after beating maiden special weight foes, but I think the connections are just being realistic with this homebred filly.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,6,7,8
 

RACE 7: ELLA’S SONG (#3)
Trouble for Skylar is going to be pretty tough for these to handle if she shows up. Plagued by consistency issues for the majority of her career, it seems like this barn finally has her heading in the right direction and a repeat of her recent efforts simply makes her a bit faster than almost all of her rivals. However, she may find herself rallying from farther back in the pack than she has in recent starts due to a plethora of speed types in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and the runner who may play out as the speed of the speeds is Bustin to Please. She comes off a visually impressive score in relatively fast time at Laurel. She obviously has improved for new trainer Claudio Gonzalez, who can send live runners to NYRA. The only issue is that she’s part of a coupled entry and may be an underlay. I’ll use both of these favorites, but I don’t fully trust either one, and I think we can get a bit more creative. Ella’s Song intrigues me after she got a crazy ride in her most recent start. While she finished last that day, she actually earned the third-highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the race due to the fact that she set a ridiculously fast pace in the opening furlongs. There was no way that she could have sustained such a pace and she understandably tired in the last furlong. Now she’s cutting back and getting a massive rider upgrade to Eric Cancel. Furthermore, she didn’t run as badly as it might seem in her races on this circuit prior to that, particularly three back when she got an awful trip. She’s a bit of a stretch, but this feels like a race in which something odd could happen.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,9
Trifecta Box: 1,3,5
 

RACE 8: MY BOY TATE (#1)
Arthur’s Hope will be among the favorites this time after getting the job done in the Say Florida Sandy last month with an impressive 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That just seemed like the right spot for him and we got a generous $12 win payout that day. Not only was he the controlling speed going an ideal distance, but the main track on Jan. 11 was slightly speed-favoring, all of which contributed to him delivering a top performance. Now he’s going to be a much shorter price and I think this is a slightly tougher spot. Kendrick Carmouche is going to have to use him in the early going to make the lead over rivals such as Binkster, Amundson, and Eye Luv Lulu, and Arthur’s Hope sometimes has trouble making the front going this shorter six-furlong distance. Eye Luv Lulu seems like a perfectly viable alternative, but wins have been few and far between for this gelding as he’s gotten older. That said, he actually ran quite well in a number of races last year, particularly when he earned a massive 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Affirmed Success at Belmont last April. He remains slightly better on wet tracks than fast going, but he’s run plenty of competitive races over dry strips. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is My Boy Tate. He lost to Arthur’s Hope by six lengths last time, but I don’t think he had much go his way that day. He broke awkwardly and was pinched back to last soon after the start. Then Manny Franco tried to rush him into the race and sent him on a four-wide chase while trying to make up ground around the far turn. That trip combined with the speedfavoring surface resulted in a poor performance. Yet this horse had run very well just one race prior in his return from the layoff and he’s arguably going to be aided by this turnback to six furlongs.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 7,8 with 2,4,6,7,8