by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 11 - 7
RACE 1: STAR SWEEP (#1)
Heartbustingirl will be a prohibitive favorite based on her significant speed-figure edge. She’s simply run faster than her rivals in both career starts and has done so while facing tougher company than the field she meets today. It’s possible that she even needed her return from the layoff last time out, as she didn’t show much improvement upon her debut despite making her first start for the Todd Pletcher barn. That turned out to be a race where you did not want to get stuck inside in the stretch, so Heartbustingirl just found herself in the wrong spot while trying to rally late. If she improves at all on that performance, she looms a very likely winner of this race. However, there is one viable alternative whom I have to bet. Star Sweep exits a race that has been incredibly productive as a forecaster of improvement. Nine horses have run back out of that race, including the winner, She Takes Charge. A number of them have run well, and all have improved their speed figures by significant margins. Looking at TimeformUS Speed Figures, every one of those nine runbacks has improved their figures by 17 to 47 points. If Star Sweep shows similar improvement, she will outrun her odds in this spot. Even without that evidence, I would find her somewhat interesting here given that she’s taking the drop from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company and actually took a bit of money in her debut.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7
RACE 5: HABITUE (#2)
Despite attracting just 6 runners, this is an interesting little maiden race. I believe Pickle Rick is the horse to beat after finishing second in a similar spot back in January. He set an honest pace that day and battled on gamely in the lane. He was unable to fend off the classy winner Midnight Curfew, but he finished well clear of the others, with large gaps separating those behind him. I think a repeat of that performance makes him awfully tough for this field to beat. However, he does face some intriguing new rivals this time. The one that many will gravitate towards is Grumps Little Tots, who stretches out in distance for the first time. Looking purely at speed figures, he stacks up quite well with Pickle Rick. His last race was encouraging, as he broke a step slowly and closed into a slow pace, falling just a nose shy of upsetting the odds-on favorite. However, that came at 5 ½ furlongs and now he must stretch-out to a mile. His pedigree gives mixed signals. Sky Mesa is a versatile sire, and his dam has produced a few route winners. However, she’s also a half-sister to some quick sprinters, including 6-furlong A. G. Vanderbilt winner Sean Avery. I prefer Pickle Rick, but I think you have to use both of these horses. Yet this race is more complicated than choosing between just two contenders. My top pick is Habitue. He finished over 15 lengths behind Pickle Rick last time, but I think that margin was somewhat exaggerated by the race flow and the nature of the track surface. Habitue had trouble finding his stride in the early going, but he made an eye-catching move into fourth on the far turn before flattening out in the stretch. I thought it was an encouraging debut for a horse that should continue to progress with experience. He’s bred to have ability, as a Pioneerof the Nile-sired half-brother to Grade 1 winner Power Broker. I would expect this runner to show a bit more speed this time, and he’s bred to relish a wet track.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 8: BAVARO (#5)
Honor Up and Syndergaard, who would have been among the top contenders in this field, will not participate in favor of Sunday’s Haynesfield. This morning we also learned that Build to Suit will not participate, reducing the field to just 7 runners. That probably leaves Eye Luv Lulu as the new favorite. He would have been helped by moisture in the surface, but we did not get enough precipitation to significantly alter the track surface. I had been worried that his career was finished after a series of disappointing efforts, but he got back on track last time with a decisive win. That was accomplished over a weaker field than the one he meets today, but he ran a competitive speed figure and goes out for a barn that always merits respect. I’m definitely using him, but I want to take a shot against him with Bavaro, who is stepping way up in class off the claim. I know he looks too cheap to compete against these horses, but he has run legitimately fast in his last two starts. His last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116 and 120 put him squarely in the mix, and he arguably could have run faster in both starts. Looking through the also-rans in those fields, the numbers totally stand up to scrutiny. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, and it’s uncharacteristic for her to show this kind of confidence on the class rise. Bavaro was once cut out to be a very good horse, and things obviously went awry after his first couple of starts. Yet now he appears to be back in the best form of his career, and the Pace Projector indicates that he’s fast enough to outrun the other speeds to the lead. The other runner to consider, especially after scratches, is Celtic Chaos. This horse can be frustrating, since he often comes with a strong late rally, but rarely gets up to win. I was somewhat disappointed in his dull effort behind Honor Up last time, but perhaps the slight turnback to 6 furlongs in a race with more pace will suit him.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,10
Trifecta: 5 with 7,10 with 4,6,7,10