by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 7 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 8 - 3 - 7 - 1
RACE 3: CODY’S NOTES (#3)
Chilly Bon Bon and Nonna’s Boy figure to vie for favoritism and for the early lead. The former is taking a significant drop in class after facing optionalclaiming fields in his last two starts. He’s consistently run some of the best races among those in this bunch, but I get the feeling that he’s heading in the wrong direction and may not be quick enough to grab the early lead away from Nonna’s Boy. However, I have similar concerns about him as his recent form has tailed off badly. I’m trying to beat both of them with Cody’s Notes. I know that this 3-for-36 gelding doesn’t win many races, but I think he finds himself in an appropriate spot here. His better dirt efforts are really no worse than those of Chilly Bon Bon. Furthermore, he appears to be in better form than the favorites, as he enters this race off a solid fifth-place finish against tougher allowance company last time. I don’t view this drop as a major negative because he’s always belonged in races at or around this level. His connections have campaigned him in tougher spots for the majority of his career, but his last win did come for a $14,000 tag.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 5: THE CARETAKER (#4)
Midnight Mission is likely to go off as a clear favorite as he steps up against winners following an easy debut win at odds of 3-5. He earned a competitive speed figure and has a right to continue progressing, but he’s not the kind of runner I want to bet at a very short price. He was beating a fairly weak field in that Jan. 28 maiden race. Now he must prove that he can run that same race over a dry track, and he will probably have to withstand early pressure from the speedy Grassady to his outside. I’m trying to beat him with The Caretaker, who moves back up in class following a deceptively strong performance against claiming company last time. This horse had shown promise at the start of his career but just couldn’t seem to recapture his best form since returning from a layoff last summer. However, his last race suggests that he may be heading in the right direction again. That race was Jan. 26, a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail. The Caretaker was one of the few horses that day to produce a top effort despite racing off the rail throughout. He made a menacing move to threaten the winner at the eighth pole but couldn’t sustain the move late. Now Kiaran McLaughlin appropriately moves him back up in class. If he can produce a similar effort against tougher company this time, I think he has an excellent chance to win.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
RACE 6: MO SHOPPING (#7)
This is one of the most confusing races on the card, as there are many horses to consider. Gypsy Janie and Jump Ruler have run the fastest races, but I’m a bit skeptical that they can repeat those efforts. Gypsy Janie got a great setup, closing from off the pace, in a sprint last time, while Jump Ruler will have to face pace pressure today after controlling affairs on the front end last time. My top pick is Mo Shopping, who ships up from Florida for Todd Pletcher. Of all the runners in this race, she may have the most upside. She was bred to be a nice horse, by Uncle Mo and out of graded stakesplaced mare Stopshoppingmaria. She disappointed in her debut on turf but rebounded nicely when switched to turf at Gulfstream Park last time out. She wasn’t facing the toughest field of maiden claimers that day, but I liked the way she accomplished that win. She appeared to be running in spots for most of the race and seemed to idle when she hit the lead. However, as soon as the runner-up came to challenge her at the eighth pole, Mo Shopping found another gear and pulled clear with authority. I think this filly might have more ability than she’s shown thus far, and Todd Pletcher knows how to get these horses to win right back. Over the past five years, he is 23 for 59 (39 percent, $2.37 ROI) with horses who won their maidens last time out going from sprints to routes on the dirt.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,9