by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 1A - 5 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 3 - 10
RACE 2: GINNSU WARRIOR (#5)
This 3-year-old claiming event became much less interesting after scratches, as two of the six runners came out. I’m not a fan of Bustin Pietre or Not Yet Charlie, who both remain in the field. The former has really tailed off in his last couple of starts and just hasn’t grown up since his 2-year-old season, whereas the latter broke his maiden in a weaker race at Finger Lakes. I’m more interested in runners drawn outside. Always Charming makes some sense as he gets needed class relief. These underrated connections have done some good work with young horses during the past year, though I’m a little concerned about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs. The distance shouldn’t be an issue for my top pick, Ginnsu Warrior. This colt actually ran pretty well going 5 furlongs in his career debut before he was immediately stretched out in distance. He hasn’t run as fast as some other rivals, but he is getting some class relief after returning in a $50k claiming race last time. He was racing on a dead rail that day after getting away to a very awkward start. He figures to move forward off that performance since NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale noted prior to his last race that he was still on the heavy side.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 4,5
RACE 3: HIGH COMMAND (#4)
P J Advantage is obviously the one to beat as he plunges in class down to this $8k bottom level. It seems a little sudden for a horse who has done well for these connections. However, he’s now a 7-year-old and he’s coming off a pretty unproductive season at Finger Lakes by his standards. He’s likely to get claimed in this spot, but he’s not a guarantee to win if he doesn’t improve on his last race. He was facing much better company that day, but he never lifted a hoof. I have trouble taking him at an expected short price. Fleet Warrior looks like the main rival given his ample early speed. He failed at this level last time but that was off a layoff, and he got involved in an honest pace before fading. He shouldn’t get as much pressure up front this time and his best races clearly make him good enough. I’ve seen enough of alternatives like Winning Drive and Summer Bourbon, who have had their chances recently. I’m instead going in a different direction with a bigger price. High Command looks inferior at first glance, but he’s had some excuses. He was way against the track last time when stuck right down on a dead rail on Feb. 5 in a race dominated by outside runners. Prior to that he actually ran fine at this level, finishing ahead of Fleet Warrior, albeit with a good trip. I think he fits here, and he’s going to fly under the radar given the human connections involved.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 4: PAZZION (#2)
This race becomes far more wide open after the scratch of expected heavy favorite Voice of Spring. Carly Hustle makes some sense after getting a wide trip against the rail bias two back. She closed decently last time and is an obvious player as the likely favorite now. Queentigua at least has the speed to get in front of this field early, but I'm skeptical that she can get 7 furlongs. If I’m going to take a horse out of either the Jan. 22 or Feb. 12 races at this level, I want it to be Pazzion. I’ve tried this horse twice before and she’s finished off the board, but I’m keeping the faith one more time. She obviously has some trouble getting out of the starting gate, as she’s broken slowly twice in a row. That said, she really did do some running two back when making a strong late rally after altering course in upper stretch, eventually galloping out past the field after the wire. Last time she again was compromised by a slow break and then just dropped too far out of contention before running on late. I have more confidence in her getting 7 furlongs than I do some others. I also like the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy, and I never hesitate to pick Ralph D’Alessandro horses given his healthy ROI at Aqueduct over the past few seasons.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
RACE 7: MOAM (#7)
Yo Cuz seeks her second consecutive stakes victory as she breaks from the outside post in this Maddie May. This is undoubtedly a tougher field than she met last time in the New York Stallion Series, but she did run well to win that race. She showed vastly improved early speed in taking the lead and opened up impressively in mid-stretch before the margin was cut down late. Morning Matcha, who was second, returned with another good effort in the Busanda, validating Yo Cuz’s form. She makes sense, but I thought she could go favored in a very competitive field. Reigning Chick exits a good third in the aforementioned Busanda, but she got a fortunate trip, riding the gold rail most of the way. I think she’s a little dressed up off that result, but she does have some talent and has clearly relished added ground. I also wouldn't totally dismiss Stone Creator, who also exits a bias-aided performance. However, she becomes more dangerous as the likely controlling speed after the scratch of Sandy's Garden. Two horses exit the Franklin Square Stakes. Thinking It Over could take some money after finishing third in that spot, but I thought she benefited from a ground-saving trip. The runner that I want out of the Franklin Square is Moam. She was off slowly and then sluggish in the early going, dropping well off the lead. While she wasn’t far off the rail early, she had to angle to the center of the track to launch her run around the far turn. She lost by 15 lengths, but I still thought she did well to pass over half the field over that biased surface. Now she’s stretching out in distance, which is what she’s bred to relish. She’s a half-sister to stakes-winning router Sharp Starr as well as multiple route winner Papa Shot. Horacio DePaz is 7 for 23 (30%, $2.47 ROI) with non-firsters trying a route for the first time on dirt over the past 5 years.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 8 with ALL
RACE 8: FORESTWOOD LANE (#7)
Tamburro’s Sox is the one to beat after just missing at this level in each of his last two starts. However, he was 21-1 two back, 6-1 last time, and now he’s likely to be the favorite. He can obviously win, but I think this is a more interesting field than the one he encountered last time and now he has to deal with the early speed of Tough Workout. I strongly prefer Tamburro’s Sox of those two speeds, but I think there are others to consider. Remembermom is an intriguing runner as he, for all intents and purposes, makes his first off the claim for Pat Reynolds. He technically participated last time, but dropped his rider coming out of the starting gate. He ran a big speed figure back in October at Belmont and then disappointed when wheeled back 9 days later. He can improve for Reynolds, but has to prove that he’s as effective sprinting. I’m going in a different direction with Forestwood Lane. This horse sprinted once in his career debut and ran better than it appears. He had some brief speed between horses but then dropped back greenly on the backstretch. He lost some interest, but was running on well through traffic late. They stretched him out after that and he was against track biases twice in a row. He was wide against strong rail biases on both Jan. 2 and Jan. 22, and actually ran pretty well two back. I don’t mind the turnback for him, and he could get some pace to close into with those two aforementioned speeds drawn to his inside.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,9,10
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 3,4,5,9,10