PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 8 - 7 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: ATLANTIC ROAD (#1)
Highly touted firster Will E Sutton sold for $1 million as a yearling, which is a lot for this pedigree. Curlin wins with 13% of his firsters and is one of the top sires in the country. And while the dam was a stakes-placed 2-year-old sprinting on dirt, her one other foal to race (who sold for $500k) is a cheap claimer, and there’s not much more production in the second generation. He appears to be working well for the unveiling, but Jonathan Thomas is 5 for 46 (11%, $0.90 ROI) with first time starters on dirt over the past 5 years. That said, the last two horses to win in that sample were both owned by Robert LaPenta. Perhaps Jonathan Thomas just entered Nepotism to make the race go, but I think this colt could also be dangerous if he runs. He put in a deceptively strong effort two back, hanging on for third after contesting a fast pace, and that race was flattered when Overtook returned to finish second in the Withers on Saturday. Nepotism disappointed last time, but he may appreciate the cutback to 7 furlongs. I’ll use both of these, but my top pick is Atlantic Road. This colt’s debut down at Gulfstream was decent enough, as he broke with the field but was outrun soon after, appearing to react badly to kickback while racing greenly. The dam is a full-sister to Shadow Cast, winner of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign over 10 furlongs, so any added distance is supposed to help this horse. Pletcher is 13 for 36 (36%, $2.32 ROI) with 3-year-old maiden second-time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. It’s also notable that Pletcher owns this horse, who was an RNA for $185k as a yearling and apparently a private purchase by Pletcher since then.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5

RACE 5: MONGOLIAN HUMOR (#3)
Three major players in this race exit a January 16 race at the $12,500 claiming level in which they completed the trifecta. Viradia got the job done that day, but she appeared to relish the sloppy going as she showed uncharacteristic early speed, took over in upper stretch, and held sway late over a rerallying Violent Trick. They appear to be the two horses to beat in this spot, though I prefer them in reverse order this time. Violent Trick was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, and she has a right to move forward in her second start off the layoff. The one drawback for her is that she could face some additional early pressure this time from the likes of Excess Capacity and Daria’s Angel. I’m using both of these horses, but I think there are others worth considering. Mongolian Humor finished a well-beaten third behind the two aforementioned favorites in that January 16 affair, but I think she could be the one to take the biggest step forward out of that effort. She was coming off a layoff in that spot and had a right to need a race in just her second start for Steve Klesaris. She also didn’t appear to be as comfortable over the muddy track as Viradia, losing ground as they left the backstretch. All things considered, she stayed on well late and she has a higher ceiling than some others in here if she’s heading in the right direction now. Furthermore, she’s going to be the best price of the horses I’m considering. I’d also use Excess Capacity, but a mile is pushing her to the limit and I don’t love that she’s dropping off an inexplicably poor effort.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,5,7

RACE 7: EMPTY TOMB (#3)
Backsideofthemoon will obviously beat this field if he runs back to his performances prior to the Jazil. However, it’s unwise to just ignore a poor performance, especially for a horse that’s going to be a prohibitive favorite. There was certainly a strong chance that Backsideofthemoon was going to regress off his bias-aided win in the Queens County, but he did more than just regress last time. He just didn’t look like himself right from the start, racing sluggishly through the opening furlongs while never able to muster a rally. Perhaps racing without Lasix affected him that day, but if he indeed had a significant bleeding incident, would he really be running back in just two weeks? I’m skeptical. I’m want to go in a different direction, and the two best alternatives appear to be sent out by Mike Maker. Someday Jones was no match for Lil Commissioner last time going a mile, but he was running back for the third time in just 28 days. Now he’s had a month to recover from that frenzy of activity, and he’s also getting out to his preferred 1 1/8 miles distance. However, I’m a little skeptical of the speed figure he earned for that Dec. 20 performance, and I wish he had shown a bit more life off the claim for Mike Maker. I prefer this barn’s other horse. Empty Tomb has been a little inconsistent lately, but he had a valid excuse two back when always wide against the rail bias in the Queens County. He rebounded last time with a good effort behind bias-aided winner Mad Munnys going a mile. And it’s not as if that performance came out of nowhere, as he had previously matched that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when winning a solid September allowance race over today’s favorite Backsideofthemoon. I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out to 9 furlongs since he’s handled two turns in the past. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed scenario, and he appears to be the most likely early leader.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,4