by David Aragona
Monday’s Martin Luther King, Jr. Day card features an excellent running of the Interborough Stakes, which goes as race 8. Despite it’s ungraded status, the field of fillies and mares that was assembled for this event is certainly graded stakes-quality, led by the undefeated and untested Come Dancing. Earlier in the day, New York-bred three-year-olds are spotlighted in race 3, the Damon Runyon. Impressive maiden winner Empire Line will attempt to stretch his speed to a mile as the likely favorite.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 6 - 10
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 10 - 7
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 2 - 6
RACE 3: SMOOTH MOVE (#1)
Empire Line might be the most talented horse in this race, but he has to overcome some adversity if he’s going to preserve his undefeated record. He won his debut impressively with an eye-catching speed figure. Yet now he has to deal with the stretch-out in distance in a race where he figures to get early pace pressure from Morning Breez and Battle Station. His chief rival is Jaye Jaye, who has already handled the distance and has shown the versatility to come from off the pace, albeit on the turf. I think he’s a serious threat to win, but he, too, may not offer any value. I want to take a shot against these horses with Smooth Move. It’s worth watching this gelding’s races because those efforts make it clear that he still has room for improvement. He made his dirt debut last time and was able to win due to a superb ride from Irad Ortiz, who kept his cool despite having his saddle slip on the backstretch. Smooth Move was rank early in the race, but professionally moved around horses at the top of the stretch and came with a relentless rally to nail runner-up Gio d’Oro at the wire. He earned a respectable speed figure for that effort, and I think he’s ready for this step up in class.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
RACE 4: WARRIOR ROSE (#5)
I’m not normally looking to pick first-time starters, but I think this is the kind of race were you want to look beyond those with experience. Infield Is In has clearly run well enough to win races at this level, but he’s had plenty of chances and may be better on a wet track. Trinni Juice ran a competitive speed figure last time, but these connections are hard to trust at a short price. I think it’s important to note that there’s very little early speed signed on for this race. Therefore, if first-timer Warrior Rose shows any early zip under Kendrick Carmouche, he could be long gone. I know that Gary Sciacca is listed as the trainer, but this horse was actually entered under Michael Pino’s name when racing was cancelled on Thursday, which makes sense since he’s been training at Parx Racing. Regardless, this horse has clearly been well-prepped and seems to be spotted realistically for his debut.
Win: 5
RACE 6: ST. AUGUSTINE (#2)
The most intriguing horse in this race is Sharpe and Ready, who was entered and scratched after an incident at the gate in early December. Despite going out for a relatively low-profile barn, he was bet down to favoritism that day, so one would imagine that he will take significant play again here. In terms of horses with experience, Home Run Maker is likely to attract some attention as he turns back in distance after failing to handle two turns last time. However, the runner that I want to bet at a slightly higher price is St. Augustine. This horse’s two sprint efforts at the start of his career were actually pretty decent. He made a mid-race move into a slow pace in his debut, and then he finished a solid fourth to runaway winner Montauk in his second start. I think he has a bit more ability than it might appear, and he figures to go off at a square price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7,10
RACE 7: WE DID (#4)
This is easily the most confusing race on the card. Jewel Can Disco is the morning-line favorite off the strength of his summer victories, but it’s hard to know exactly what we’re going to get from him off the layoff. Moreover, he and the other speeds in this field might be compromised by a predicted fast pace. Giantinthemoonlite might be the most reliable option, since he routinely shows up with solid efforts and his versatile running style fits the race well. However, he rarely wins, and had no excuse not to finish second last time. At a slightly better price, I’m taking a shot with We Did. This horse lacks the consistency of Giantinthemoonlite, but he’s capable of producing comparable top efforts when he’s in form. I’m encouraged that new trainer Chris Englehart is moving him up in class and protecting him as he makes his first start off a brief layoff. If he can run back to his July win at Saratoga, he’s a major threat here. The projected race flow also suits him, since he’s raced effectively as a closer in the past.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7,8
RACE 8: DIVINE MISS GREY (#4)
A number of runners in this race are coming off impressive last-out scores. Come Dancing may go favored as she puts her undefeated record on the line after compiling two wins that were spaced apart by 13 months. She clearly possesses some talent, but she was allowed to set a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) when winning last time and I think she’s going to encounter a trickier situation here. I prefer Divine Miss Grey, who has steadily been running faster races over the course of this year. Since coming into Danny Gargan’s barn in May, she has finished worse than second only once in 7 starts, and that came in the Grade 1 Test. Most recently, she earned a field-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her optional claiming win in December. I’m not concerned about the slight turnback in distance since she’s handled shorter trips in the past. Her tactical speed and versatile running style make her dangerous. I’ll also include Going for Broke in my wagers. If the early pace heats up, she should be picking up pieces late. At an even bigger price, another closer that I would throw in is Kalabaka. She’s had to deal with layoffs recently, but she should like getting back on a fast track.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,7,10
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7,10 with 1,3,6,7,10