by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 1A - 7 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 14 - 9 - 8 - 11
RACE 2: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS (#6)
I’m not saying anything particularly clever here, but I do think that the probable favorite Money Never Sleeps is a very likely winner of this race. Todd Pletcherjust does very well in these situations. Over the past five years, he is 18 for 41 (44%, $2.36 ROI) with second-time starters dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on the dirt. But it’s not just the trainer stat that makes this horse appealing. This filly is exiting what appears to be a live maiden special weight race, out of which Power Move returned to finish second in the Tempted. While she wasn’t a serious factor that day, she ran like a filly who badly needed that experience. She was hard-ridden through the early stages and was briefly in contact with the first flight of runners heading down the backstretch. However, she quickly dropped back heading for the turn as she had to deal with kickback. She raced greenly into the lane and seemed hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole. However, once John Velazquez swung her out into the clear, she actually started finishing with some interest and was quickly passing horses under the line. It’s perhaps somewhat discouraging they’re immediately dropping in for a tag, but this is probably where she belongs. I just don’t really trust any of the others. Quantum Computing goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan, but she’d have to improve quite a bit on her debut effort for Chad Brown. Customerexperience debuts for the Chad Brown barn, but he doesn’t have the greatest statistics with runners making their first starts in maiden claiming company on dirt. The interesting firster to use might be Mariposa d’Oro, who appears to be working well down at Monmouth for Mike Stidham.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 6: FAIRY LINK (#4)
The horse to beat in this spot is Willing to Speed, who would be very difficult for this group to handle if he were to run back to any of his speed figures from the summer. Yet, I think there are some holes in this favorite. While he ran well in a series of races at the starter allowance level, he never got the job done and squandered opportunities to win after getting very good trips. They dropped him in for a tag at Belmont after missing two months, and he ran poorly twice. He disappointed as one of the favorites two back and then was very disappointing when unable to keep up in the lane last time. He may have reacted badly to coming back on just one week’s rest, but I still worry that his form has gone south. I’m not also not thrilled with the other horse likely to take money, Uncle Curly. He got a great trip and was a little lucky to break his maiden two back and it subsequently took him a long time to get back to the races. He was passing tired horses late in that NY-bred allowance, but now Clement immediately drops him in for the tag. Over the past 5 years, this barn is 4 for 24 (17%, $0.88 ROI) with horses making their first starts for a tag in turf routes. I’ll use both of these defensively, but I want to get a bit more creative. My top pick is the filly Fairy Link, who faces males here. She got pretty good for a few months as a 3-year-old filly before her form badly tailed off at the end of last year. She again was in pretty poor form when she first returned this year, but her last two efforts make it seem like she might be heading in the right direction. She encountered some traffic issues in the lane two back, and last time she finished well in a race that held together up front. Kendrick Carmouche is riding like he knows the rail is the place to be on the turf and she figures to work out a ground-saving trip from this post position.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
RACE 7: HONEY WON’T (#2)
This race is pretty wild. Fourteen horses have been entered and you can make a solid case for more than half of the runners in this field. I suppose the horse to beat is Wild One Forever, who makes his second start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. He didn’t do anything particularly special in his first start for this barn at Saratoga, but he did earn a respectable speed figure at this level. More importantly, he possesses early speed and that figures to make him dangerous over a turf course that has been favoring rail runners. However, he doesn’t have any major edge over this field from a form standpoint, and there are many others to consider. Lundqvist actually finished ahead of Wild One Forever in August and should appreciate a turnback. Mohican is somewhat interesting first time off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He hasn’t run on turf much recently, but his effort from July makes him competitive here. Duress was visually impressive breaking his maiden first off the claim for Tom Albertrani, but he’s stepping up to face a stronger field this time. Even Clyde’s Runner has a serious chance based on his prior form, but it’s hard to envision him working out the right trip from his outside post position. Sticking with that theme, I’m going with a horse who I’m hoping works out the right trip. Honey Won’t needs to improve a bit to beat this field, but he figures to save ground from this rail slot under Joel Rosario. I know that he was beating much weaker when he won at Saratoga last time, but his prior two efforts actually make him more appealing. He didn’t run badly at all two back against a tougher N1X allowance field and his June performance at Belmont would give him a big shot here. In a race loaded with contenders, he could get somewhat lost in the shuffle.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10
RACE 8: TAPAGE (#5)
This is another race in which competition runs deep. Horses like Portos and Vintage Print figure to attract plenty of support. The former is a goofy Tapit colt for Todd Pletcher who has an experience edge over this field, having already negotiated this two-turn configuration twice before. He clearly has ability, but he’s been fairly green in both starts. Vintage Print, a $1.8 million Chad Brown trainee, obviously needed his debut when closing belatedly going a mile at Belmont. He’s trained well in blinkers since that start and figures to move forward. Yet the one who intrigues me most from that Oct. 5 heat is Tapage. This son of Grade 1 winner Hystericalady has trained better in the morning than he’s run in the afternoon so far, but that could change in this spot. He took a big step forward in that second start and actually ran better than his fourth-place result would indicate. He didn’t get off to the best start and then was forced to make a premature move into contention on the backstretch. Put into an awkward position, he had to continue advancing wide on the turn and then raced greenly through upper stretch on his wrong lead. He actually finished decently when he finally switched over. I don’t mind this stretch-out to nine furlongs and I think we’re going to see a more professional effort. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s getting a rider switch to Joel Rosario, who has been riding as well as anyone on this circuit recently. I also wouldn’t dismiss Mischief Afoot out of that same race, since he beat the aforementioned runner last time. However, it’s unclear if the added distance will help him.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,6,8
RACE 10: PENDOLINO (#14)
Tom Bush has a pair of fillies in this spot who figure to attract the bulk of support and both are making the drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. However, this barn doesn’t have the greatest statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, the Bush barn is 3 for 34 (9%, $0.62 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on turf. Of the pair, Plink Freud is the proven sprinter and Sandra’s Mine is cutting back. I slightly prefer the latter, since I think less distance actually benefits her and she appears to possess more tactical speed. However, I’d be using both in some capacity. I’m worried that both could be compromised by wide trips, so I’d rather look for a bigger price. My top pick also looks likely to work out a wide trip, but at least she’ll be a better price. Pendolino unfortunately drew the outside post position, but she is also getting some class relief as she drops down to this maiden claiming level. She actually ran pretty well three back at Saratoga when closing for third behind the very talented Lead Guitar. She didn’t fare as well in her only other turf start at Belmont two back, but she also didn’t get much pace to close into after getting compromised at the start. I don’t have any faith that she’ll save ground from this post, but she may get some pace to close into and that could make her dangerous at a square price.
Win: 14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 2,6,8,9,11