PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 2 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I suppose Gut Feeling (#1) merits consideration here off his recent speed figures at the level, but it feels like he could go favored and he just doesn’t do much for me. He was beaten by superior rivals in his last two starts, but was never a season threat on either occasion. Now he’s making his first start off a trainer switch, but I’m not sure that should taken too seriously since his former trainer wasn’t even based at Parx. I preferred others in here. Salto de Tigre (#2) makes some sense as he stretches out in distance. He’s been successful around two turns before, and closed well against a solid field for the level just 7 days ago. His California form may look cheaper, but he did beat Allaboutthemoney three back, and that rival has since won at this level on this circuit. I’m more interested in a couple of runners drawn towards the outside. Afjan (#4) should appreciate stretching back out in distance. He closed well for second at this level on Jan. 7 and then didn’t get the right trip two back. He rebounded last time, but lacked some finish after being used aggressively in the early stages. His stamina should be more of an asset going two turns. My top pick is Smoke and Heat (#5). He ran better than it might appear first off the claim in February, closing belatedly behind Afjan. Then last time the pace didn’t work in his favor after a series of scratches, but he was staying on well at the end. That came up a fast race, and the 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned stakes up well against this field. He should be more forwardly placed around two turns, and he strikes me as one that will be suited to the added distance.

Fair Value:
#5 SMOKE AND HEAT, at 4-1 or greater
#4 AFJAN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 2

Both runners who could vie for favoritism in this $25k conditioned claimer are coming off maiden victories. Central Pride (#7) needed 13 starts to finally graduate last time, but he did win pretty convincingly by nearly 6 lengths. That 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure certainly puts him in the mix here, as he isn’t meeting the toughest group of winners. However, he figures to be a short price going out for the dangerous combination of Rob Atras and Manny Franco. I’m less thrilled with the chances of fellow last-out maiden winner Trevor Bardette (#2). This runner took advantage of a minor rail bias when he won last time and was beating a pretty weak field at the bottom level for New York-breds. Both of these horses have speed, so it will be interesting to see if they hook up early. I see two viable alternatives at better prices. Juggler (#6) is returning from a layoff for Rafael Romero, who has had some success with limited starters in recent months on this circuit. Formerly trained by the currently suspended Juan Vazquez, Juggler broke his maiden here last winter and held his form reasonably well after the barn change at Finger Lakes last fall. He’s realistically placed for his return. My top pick is Clash A. J. (#1). Some may be turned off by the low-percentage connections, but this horse has been running competitive races against tougher competition. He did well to close for third against New York-bred allowance horses three back, and then had little chance going a mile next time, a distance that is just too far for him. He was again beaten by a large margin in his most recent start, but he was carried very wide on the far turn while again overmatched against a much tougher field. Now he’s finally dropping down to an appropriate level, and he figures to sit a good trip stalking the two speeds.

Fair Value:
#1 CLASH A. J., at 4-1 or greater
#6 JUGGLER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

This New York-bred $25k claimer is arguably the most competitive race on the card despite attracting just 7 runners. It’s hard to know how the public will approach this race, as every horse in the field seems pretty well matched. I’ll just highlight the three that interest me most, two of which should be among the better prices. The most logical player that appeals to me is Foolish Ghost (#6), who seems like the fastest of the speeds. It’s fair to question his current form, but the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He has had success for Ray Handal in the past, and now he’s dropping to a realistic level. Masked Marauder (#4) will be hoping the pace comes apart, but he’s also getting that same class relief, dropping out of an optional claimer. He didn’t run that badly off the claim for Carlos Martin last time and feels like one who could get somewhat ignored in the betting. My top pick is Runningwscissors (#2). He’s another who may go off at a fair price after failing to make an impact against a tougher group last time. It’s been a while since he’s put forth a good effort on the dirt, but he was always wide and out of position in that most recent start. He could be fitter second off the layoff, and multiple horses have returned from that Feb. 10 affair to since improve their speed figures. I’m hoping to see him get an aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche.

Fair Value:
#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS, at 9-2 or greater
#4 MASKED MARAUDER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

This maiden event seems fairly wide open, and features a few first time starters that could attract support. Among those, I’m most afraid of the Brad Cox trained Blue Plate Special (#5), who worked a furlong in 10 1/5 last year at the OBS Sale despite being green. He appears to be training well leading into this start, but I’m not sure the price will be there. The horse to beat is probably Bourbon Chase (#6), but he’s hard to take on top given his history of settling for minor awards. He did improve his speed figure last time when chasing home the talented Maker’s Candy, but he also seemed to improve with added ground and now he’s cutting back in distance. My top pick is Z Dancer (#8). He was a distant second behind Lifetime of Chance here two weeks ago, but no one was beating that Linda Rice trainee. I thought this horse stayed on gamely for second despite lugging out around the far turn. His 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up well against the others in this field and he could still fly under the radar given the low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#8 Z DANCER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

There are many ways to go in this competitive allowance field. I’ve long thought Money Supply (#8) would be better suited to shorter distances, so I like this turnback for him. However, I’m not sure that he’ll be much of a price since this race isn’t of the highest quality for the level. He’s also a closing type in a field that doesn’t feature that much early speed. I would use him, but others might offer better value. I also have reservations about Life Changer (#4), who could be an even shorter price. He’s run fine in his recent starts, but he’s had gaps between races and was a vet scratch last month. He’s generally gotten good trips but just can’t seem to break through, and now lands in a competitive spot. I’m most interested in the three horses drawn closest to the rail. The biggest price of those could be Kaz’s Beach (#1), who ran pretty well coming off the layoff last time. That was a weaker field at this level, where Today’s Flavor was a heavy favorite. He never threatened that foe, but nevertheless earned a solid speed figure. He should appreciate a little extra ground, and I could upgrade him if the price floats up. Silver Seeker (#3) is a little more logical, since he has a running style that fits this race. He figures to be aggressively used early by Trevor McCarthy, since he ran his best race two back when he was contesting the early pace over this distance. A repeat of that performance will make him tough, and I thought he had a valid excuse last time when chasing a fast pace that fell apart. My top pick is Watasha (#2). He's another that could be forward in this race if his connections decide to use the more aggressive tactics that worked for him when he broke his maiden. He actually ran pretty well two back, closing for third into a slow pace against a tough field for this level. Something seemed to go awry in his most recent start, as he was basically eased at the end. It took him some time to get back into a regular work pattern after that, but he now appears to be training well for his return. I think the natural ability is there for him to win at this level, and he should be a square price this time.

Fair Value:
#2 WATASHA, at 6-1 or greater
#3 SILVER SEEKER, at 5-1 or greater