by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 7 - 10 - 11
RACE 1: DRIVEN TO COMPETE (#4)
Timber Ghost will probably be favored in this opener. His 4-year-old debut was not a particularly fast race for the level and he had to be hard-ridden to keep up with the leaders on the far turn. Timber Ghost never appeared to be traveling well and only finished second because the race fell apart in the late stages. Jimmy Jerkens has strong numbers with horses stretching out to dirt routes for the first time, but I still don’t think this horse is quite as formidable as his form from late 2018 would suggest. Exulting has already won at this level and is dropping down after losing a few races against stakes-quality foes. A one-turn mile is the ideal distance for him and he ran better than it seems when wide against a rail bias last time. My top pick is Driven to Compete. I like that he’s drawn outside of his main pace rival and we already know he can get the distance. He earned a series of competitive speed figures through the early part of last year before something happened that sent him to the sidelines on June 1. He lost his return at Parx last month at odds of 2-1, but he actually ran very well under the circumstances. He was contesting an honest early pace and outdueled a pair of runners who each lost by 16 and 19 lengths. Driven to Compete battled on until the late stages before succumbing to two closers. The 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that effort puts him in the mix here, and he’s likely to step forward in his second start off the layoff.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3
RACE 3: WONDER STONE (#2)
This Bridgetown only drew five horses entered for turf, but it’s still a fascinating race. Regally Irish is probably the horse to beat as he attempts to win his second consecutive start for Graham Motion. He actually ran quite well last time out at Tampa Bay Downs, as he set a legitimate pace on the front end and battled back gamely in the stretch when challenged by Jais’s Solitude. They drew 6 lengths clear of the rest of the field, and that runner-up went on to finish a good third in a tougher stakes event in his next turf start. The major concern for Regally Irish is the turnback in distance. Graham Motion does not have particularly strong numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 38 (13 percent, $0.73 ROI) with horses turning back from routes to turf sprints. Skole broke his maiden on turf at Gulfstream in December, but he was somewhat fortunate to win that race. Skychief, a maiden, has run some competitive turf races but this is a serious step up in class. I’ll use all of them, but my to pick is Wonder Stone. This filly will take on the boys for Wesley Ward as she avoids a tougher stakes for her own gender on Sunday. She showed real promise in her debut at Keeneland last year and was not disgraced when she tried stakes company in the Astoria. Her return at Turfway Park in March was better than it seems, since she had to take back and come around horses to win. She is clearly bred to handle the turf, since she is a halfsister to turf winner Hello Holiday and her dam is a half-sister to turf graded stakes winners Bricks and Mortar and Emerald Beech.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 6: BANK EXAMINER (#2)
There are a number of first time starters that could potentially be live in this New York-bred maiden event. Doll figures to attract some support for Jason Servis, but this barn has very poor numbers with debuting runners on the NYRA circuit. I prefer Newly Minted and Very Stable Genius. The former is a $110,000 two-year-old purchase for Linda Rice who is by Central Banker out of multiple dirt winner Newbie. This filly has the pedigree to win early but Rice doesn’t always crank them up first time out. Very Stable Genius might be the most dangerous of all the firsters. Charlton Baker can win first time out and this daughter of Posse is a half-sister to 5-time dirt sprint winner Grassady. I’ll use her, but my top pick is a filly with experience. Bank Examiner made her debut at Saratoga last summer on the turf, and she had trouble keeping up early before fading. She had worked well and generated some buzz prior to that debut, getting bet down to 5-1. In retrospect, I wonder if she was just running on the wrong surface. She didn’t appear to be moving over the turf that comfortably at Saratoga, and her pedigree is somewhat ambiguous. Her dam was a turf horse, but there is dirt elsewhere in this family. Jeremiah Englehart does very well with horses coming off layoffs and it’s a good sign that Junior Alvarado takes the mount. I prefer her to Chillinwithfriends, who should also take some money. Rudy Rodriguez entered her for a $30,000 tag last week and scratched in favor of this spot. The fact that he’s given the riding assignment to Harry Hernandez does not inspire confidence.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,8
RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#1)
It’s difficult to eliminate any of the entrants in this six-horse Top Flight Invitational. I suppose the horse to beat is Forever Liesl, who won the Ladies Handicap quite impressively over this course and distance back in January. She appears to be at her best over a wet track, and she may get the kind of going on Saturday with rain in the forecast on Friday night. She should also appreciate the outside post position after not responding when driven along in the inside path going one turn last time. I believe she’s a strong contender, but she’s unlikely to offer much value as the potential favorite. She and the rest of this field will have to run down Frostie Anne, who stretches out and steps up in class as she seeks her 16th career victory. She’s earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but she’s also benefited from favorable circumstances and will have to deal with the speed of rival Jump Ruler this time. I prefer some of the longer prices. My top pick is Midnight Disguise. This filly is admittedly a favorite, but I believe she’s finally landing in the right spot now in her third start off the layoff. She actually ran deceptively well in her 4-year-old debut in the Biogio’s Rose two back. Whereas Frostie Anne was riding a gold rail that day, Midnight Disguise rallied to be second despite going four wide on the far turn. She didn’t handle a sloppy track last time, and that may be a concern yet again with rain in the forecast. On the other hand, she is likely to benefit from the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. She won going this distance in the Busanda last year and she gives every impression that the farther she goes, the more dangerous she will be. The other horse that I want to use at a bigger price is Another Broad. She never had a chance going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream last time, and this stretch-out to 9 furlongs should really suit her. She’s bred to run all day as a daughter of Include out of a dam who was second in the 10-furlong Delaware Handicap. A wet track would only help her chances.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with ALL