by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 1/1A - 3
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 6 - 7
RACE 5: CALIFORNIA SWING (#6)
Kulin Rock is the horse to beat by a narrow margin. While he lost twice at this level at Gulfstream, he actually ran quite well in both races. He appeared to move too soon Feb. 18 while going a distance that may be too far for him, and then last time, he came flying with a late rush against a tougher field than this one. I prefer him to the likely co-favorite Battle of Blenheim. This horse finally won his maiden last time, but Chad Brown does not have great numbers with runners ages 4 and up coming off maiden wins in turf routes. I respect the Tagg runner, but I want to take a shot with a horse who I think will offer better value. California Swing’s prior turf efforts are not good enough to beat this field. However, you can make excuses for his turf tries at the end of last season, as he got wide trips. Now he’s in the barn of Mike Maker, who is as skilled a turf claiming trainer as there is in the country. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 31 (32 percent, $3.24 ROI) second off the claim with horses switching from dirt to turf. This horse actually showed improved form racing on dirt this winter, and I like that Maker is placing him in such an ambitious spot for his switch back to grass. He has good tactical speed, so he should be able to sit a stalking trip just in behind the likely speeds Mr. Dougie Fresh and Attribute.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2,6 with 1,3,5 with 2,6
RACE 6: KINGDOM’S QUEEN (#2)
The Chad Brown entry is likely to go off favored here. Irad Ortiz Jr. was named on the half with experience, Coexistence, but I actually prefer the first-time starter, Confirmation Bias. The latter is a daughter of capable turf sire Orb and comes from a good female family that did include one turf winner. Coexistence has less obvious turf pedigree, but she has a right to move forward off her debut. This pair is dangerous, but I want to look in another direction. Among the first-time starters, the one with the most convincing turf pedigree is Kingdom’s Queen. This filly is by Animal Kingdom and out of a graded turf stakes-winning dam. She’s also a half-sister to a few turf winners, including multiple stakes winner Mr. Gruff. David Donk is not known as a prolific debut trainer, but he actually has had some modest success with firsters on turf. Over the past five years, while he’s just 3 for 37 with horses making their turf debuts, 11 of those horses finished in the exacta, with some big prices in the mix. In addition to the Brown entry, I’ll use her with Soar From Shadows, who ran an improved race in her turf debut down in Florida and has a right to take another step forward.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,8
RACE 7: EKHTIBAAR (#5)
I have no knocks against Mr. Buff, who is due to win at this level following three excellent runner-up finishes to some talented horses. He is likely to play out as the controlling speed here and should be awfully tough to beat at a very short price. The only horse who appears to have any chance to beat him is Ekhtibaar, and I’ll make this likely second choice my top pick. He’s yet to run fast enough to beat Mr. Buff if that one repeats his last race. However, Ekhtibaar does have room for improvement, and his last race is actually much better than it seems. He got squeezed back after breaking a bit slowly and had to race in tight quarters for most of the race. After an uncomfortable trip, he actually did well to get up for third once in the clear late. The return to a one-turn mile suits him well.
Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 3,4,7
RACE 8: BARBAROSSA (#2)
All Systems Go ran very well in his debut down at Gulfstream. There were some decent runners in the field whom he defeated, and he finished powerfully, suggesting that the extra furlong he has to deal with today should not be a major issue. However, this is a step up in class, and there are other viable runners in this race who have proven themselves going this distance and have run well in New York. I prefer Pletcher’s other horse, Barbarossa. This New York-bred was extremely impressive when winning his maiden going seven furlongs at Belmont last fall. He lost as the favorite twice at Gulfstream Park, but you can make the argument that neither of those races was at an ideal distance. The two turns of that Dec. 23 race may be a bit far for him, and five furlongs looks to be a bit shorter than he really wants to go. Today’s sixfurlong trip should be perfect, and he figures to sit a great trip sitting just behind the speeds drawn to his outside. I’ll use him with the favorite as well as Ambassador Jim, who ran well as a 2-year-old. Christophe Clement has excellent statistics bringing horses back off layoffs in turf sprints.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,8
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4 with 3,4,6,8
RACE 9: SANSIBAR JEWEL (#5)
There are many contenders in this intriguing maiden race that ends the card. The two likely to attract the most attention are the pair from the Chad Brown barn. Too Cool to Dance earned a higher speed figure for her debut, but she worked out a pretty good trip after getting steadied back at the start. Jose Ortiz saved ground all the way and was able to sneak through inside at the top of the stretch before just finishing off flatly. I actually prefer Reversethedecision, who comes out of the slower race. This filly was slow out of the gate and reserved at the back of the pack for much of the way. She was still far back at the top of the stretch, but finished with a rush in the last eighth of a mile to get up for third despite racing greenly. I think this one has more room for improvement second time out. I’ll use both of them, but I think there are some others that figure to offer better value. Amazing Audrey ran very well in her second start, and Hot Cash has a right to improve after getting a wide trip at Gulfstream. However, the horse that interests me most is Sansibar Jewel, who makes her first start in this country. Christophe Clement has good numbers with foreign shippers coming off layoffs, as well as with horses getting Lasix for the first time. This filly has an awesome pedigree. She is a half-sister to Group 1 turf winner Royal Diamond and Group 2 turf winner Princess Highway. It's worth noting that this filly is a daughter of Street Cry, a sire whose progeny often need firm going to run well on turf. Sansibar Jewel got nothing of the sort in her three starts in Ireland, racing over boggy conditions every time. I think that could have been the undoing of a filly that was regarded highly enough to go off at odds-on prices in two of those races. The big gaps between starts may also be indicative of other problems, so perhaps Lasix will make a big difference for her as well. She could get a little lost in the wagering here with so many other attractive runners shipping up from Florida.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7,8